The North African Gas Export Outlook Between Commercial and Political Challenges

Abstract

Obviously there are problems and risks for gas developments in North Africa but they often mask trends that are very favorable, such as Algeria’s increased production and exports after a period of stagnation or of slight decline, several gas developments in that country which will come on stream from 2017 onwards, the confirmation of the potential of the Zohr supergiant field in Egypt with 30,000 billion cubic feet of gas in place, significant gas discoveries offshore Mauritania and huge potential of unconventional gas. Moreover, Egypt, in addition to its own potential, could become a hub for the Eastern Mediterranean with gas deliveries from the Republic of Cyprus and Israel. The monetization of the gas potential of North Africa, however, encounters various obstacles, including political and security problems (Libya is obviously the case that immediately comes to mind) and, especially, the need to attract more foreign investment, which implies, besides security and political stability, to offer foreign oil companies a more exciting contractual framework.