Wind Speed Forecasting for a Large-Scale Measurement Network and Numerical Weather Modeling
We investigate various problems encountered when forecasting wind speeds for a network of measurements stations using outputs of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model as one of the predictors in a statistical forecasting model. First, it is interesting to analyze prediction error properties for different station types (professional and amateur). Secondly, the statistical model can be viewed as a calibration of the original NWP model. Hence, careful semi-parametric smoothing of NWP input can discover various weak points of the NWP, and at the same time, it improves forecasting performance. It turns out that useful information is contained not only in the latest prediction available. It is beneficial to combine different horizon NWP predictions to one target time. GARCH sub-model for the residuals then shows complicated structure usable for short-term forecasts.
KeywordsSemiparametric modeling GAM Wind speed forecasting Numerical weather prediction model Measurement network
The work on this article was partly supported by the CVUT (Czech Technical University in Prague, Czech Republic) institutional resources for research and by the long-term strategic development financing of the Institute of Computer Science (RVO:67985807) and also by the Czech Science Foundation grant GA13-34856S, Advanced random field methods in data assimilation for short-term weather prediction.
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