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Using Ecosystem Modeling to Determine Hypoxia Effects on Fish and Fisheries

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Modeling Coastal Hypoxia

Abstract

The effects of coastal hypoxia on fish biomass and fisheries landings in the northern Gulf of Mexico have been difficult to quantify. A main complicating factor is the fact that nutrient loading from freshwater discharge is not only the main contributor to the formation of the hypoxic zone, but also a driver of secondary productivity through bottom-up processes. Other complicating factors include food web interactions, movement of nekton to more suitable habitat, and temporal and spatial variability in hypoxic area. Through case studies using Ecopath with Ecosim and Ecospace, we show that ecosystem modeling can provide a tool to evaluate population-level effects on nekton biomass as well as changes in fisheries landings due to hypoxia. Fitting model simulations to time series (observations) in Ecosim reveals that including hypoxia improves the fit of the model to observations. These findings led to the development of a spatially and temporally dynamic Ecospace model, coupled to a physical-biological model with high skill in replicating dissolved oxygen and Chl a levels. The results of simulations with this coupled modeling approach suggest that, for most species, the positive effects of increased phytoplankton as a result of nutrient enrichment from the Mississippi River outweigh the negative effect of bottom hypoxia. Decoupling enrichment from hypoxia also showed that hypoxia does reduce biomass and landing as compared to enrichment alone, and that there are winners and losers: Some species such as red snapper decrease in biomass even with enrichment. Future directions include simulating nutrient reduction scenarios to inform management.

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Acknowledgements

KdM would like to acknowledge Carl Walters and Joe Buszowski for their advice and technical assistance during model development, Katja Fennel for providing output from her coupled physical-biological model, and Arnaud Laurent for preparing this output for use in the Ecospace model. We also like to thank two anonymous reviewers and the editors who improved the chapter with their thoughtful comments. This work was supported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Award NA09NOS4780233.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA, 22030, USA

    Kim de Mutsert

  2. Ecopath International Initiative, C/Sant Eduard 22-A-2-1, Sant Cugat del Valles SP, 08172, Barcelona, Spain

    Jeroen Steenbeek

  3. Department of Oceanography, Louisiana State University, 1002-Y Energy, Coast and Environment Building, Baton Rouge, LA, 70803, USA

    James H. Cowan

  4. Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, V6T 1Z4a, Vancouver, B.C, Canada

    Villy Christensen

Authors
  1. Kim de Mutsert
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  2. Jeroen Steenbeek
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  3. James H. Cowan
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  4. Villy Christensen
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kim de Mutsert .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA

    Dubravko Justic

  2. Louisiana State University , Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA

    Kenneth A. Rose

  3. Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University Department of Oceanography, College Station, Texas, USA

    Robert D. Hetland

  4. Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

    Katja Fennel

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de Mutsert, K., Steenbeek, J., Cowan, J.H., Christensen, V. (2017). Using Ecosystem Modeling to Determine Hypoxia Effects on Fish and Fisheries. In: Justic, D., Rose, K., Hetland, R., Fennel, K. (eds) Modeling Coastal Hypoxia. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-54571-4_14

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