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Simulating the Effects of Nutrient Loading Rates and Hypoxia on Bay Anchovy in Chesapeake Bay Using Coupled Hydrodynamic, Water Quality, and Individual-Based Fish Models

  • Aaron T. Adamack
  • Kenneth A. Rose
  • Carl F. Cerco
Chapter

Abstract

Water quality in the Chesapeake Bay has decreased since the 1950s due to an increase in nutrient loadings that have increased the extent and duration of hypoxic conditions. Restoration via large-scale reductions in nutrient loadings is now underway. How reducing nutrient loadings will affect water quality is well predicted; however, the effects of reduced nutrients (reduced food availability) and associated reduced hypoxia on fish are generally unknown as most water quality models do not include trophic levels higher than zooplankton. We dynamically coupled a spatially explicit, individual-based population dynamics model of juvenile and adult anchovy to the three-dimensional Chesapeake Bay eutrophication model. Growth rates of individual anchovy were calculated using a bioenergetics equation. Anchovy consumption rates were forced by zooplankton densities from the water quality model, and anchovy consumption of zooplankton was added as an additional mortality term on zooplankton in the eutrophication model. Anchovy mortality was size dependent and their movement depended on water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and zooplankton concentrations. Multi-year simulations with fixed annual recruitment were performed under decreased, baseline, and increased nutrient loadings scenarios. The results of our analyses show that anchovy responses to changed nutrient loadings are dominated by changes in productivity, including simultaneous changes in growth and mortality rates, and spatial distribution, and depend on life stage. As such, we recommend using full life cycle, spatially explicit population models that are dynamically coupled to water quality models as a tool for predicting the effects of changes in nutrient loadings on fish population dynamics.

Keywords

Nutrient loading Hypoxia Bay anchovy Numerical modeling Population dynamics Individual-based model Chesapeake Bay 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank T.J. Miller for providing data on the spatial distribution of bay anchovy in Chesapeake Bay and M. Noel for providing post-processing scripts for the analysis of CE-QUAL-ICM model output files. Additionally, we would like to thank D. Justic, J.H. Cowan Jr., J. Geaghan, and R. Malone for comments on an earlier version of this manuscript. The Chesapeake Bay eutrophication model was developed with the support of the US Army Engineer District Baltimore and the US Environmental Protection Agency Chesapeake Bay Program. ATA was supported by a graduate assistantship from the Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences at Louisiana State University and was partially supported by the Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research at the University of Michigan and by the University of Canberra Postdoctoral Fellowship Scheme while completing this manuscript. This research was partially supported (KAR) by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research (CSCOR) NGOMEX09 Grant number NA09NOS4780179 awarded to the University of Texas, and CHRP Grant number NA10NOS4780157 awarded to Louisiana State University. This is publication number 219 of the NOAA’s CSCOR NGOMEX and CHRP programs.

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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Aaron T. Adamack
    • 1
    • 3
  • Kenneth A. Rose
    • 1
  • Carl F. Cerco
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of Oceanography and Coastal SciencesLouisiana State University, Energy, Coast, and Environment BuildingLAUSA
  2. 2.U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development CenterVicksburgUSA
  3. 3.Institute for Applied Ecology, University of CanberraBruceAustralia

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