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Diffusion and Adoption Models

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Advanced Methods for Modeling Markets

Part of the book series: International Series in Quantitative Marketing ((ISQM))

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Abstract

In this chapter we discuss specific sets of models: diffusion models and adoption models. Diffusion models describe the spread of an innovation among a set of prospective adopters over time. A diffusion model depicts successive increases in the number of adopters and predicts the continued development of a diffusion process already in progress (Mahajan et al. 1993). The focus is generally on the generation of the product life cycle to forecast the first-purchase sales volume. Diffusion models are based on the assumption that the diffusion of a new product is a social process of imitation. For example, early adopters influence late adopters to purchase the new product. Positive interaction between current adopters and later adopters is assumed to bring about the (rapid) growth of the diffusion process.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    We closely follow Ruiz-Conde et al. (2014).

  2. 2.

    Sultan et al. (1990).

  3. 3.

    We closely follow Ruiz-Conde et al. (2006).

  4. 4.

    Be aware that p(t) is external influence and p t is a price variable, whereas \( \widetilde{p_t} \) is the relative price in (10.19).

  5. 5.

    We closely follow Muller et al. (2009, Chap. 4).

  6. 6.

    We follow Peres et al. (2010).

  7. 7.

    An example of a sophisticated international diffusion model is Gelper and Stremersch (2014).

  8. 8.

    We follow Muller et al. (2009).

  9. 9.

    See Urban et al. (1990) and Urban (1993).

  10. 10.

    These steps were identified by Rogers (1962).

  11. 11.

    See Mahajan et al. (2000).

  12. 12.

    Urban (1968).

  13. 13.

    Urban (1969, 1970) and Urban and Karash (1971).

  14. 14.

    Pringle et al. (1982).

  15. 15.

    Blackburn and Clancy (1980).

  16. 16.

    Silk and Urban (1978).

  17. 17.

    Urban (1993).

  18. 18.

    Urban and Katz (1983).

  19. 19.

    Lilien et al. (2007, p. 122).

  20. 20.

    For detailed descriptions see Lilien and Rangaswamy (2003, pp. 264–271) and Silk and Urban (1978).

  21. 21.

    The derivation of (10.36) can be found in, for example, Sect. 8.2.4.1 in Vol. I.

  22. 22.

    In Sect. 10.5.2 we extend this model.

  23. 23.

    See, for example, Tuten and Solomon (2015).

  24. 24.

    Muller et al. (2009, p. 9).

  25. 25.

    See, for example, Goldenberg et al. (2001).

  26. 26.

    We closely follow Ruiz-Conde et al. (2014).

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  1. Department of Marketing, University of Groningen, Groningen, 9700 AV, The Netherlands

    Peter S. H. Leeflang & Jaap E. Wieringa

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  1. Peter S. H. Leeflang
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Correspondence to Peter S. H. Leeflang .

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  1. Department of Marketing, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands

    Peter S. H. Leeflang

  2. Department of Marketing, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands

    Jaap E. Wieringa

  3. Department of Marketing, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands

    Tammo H.A Bijmolt

  4. Department of Marketing, D’Amore-McKim School of Business, Northeastern University, Boston, USA

    Koen H. Pauwels

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Leeflang, P.S.H., Wieringa, J.E. (2017). Diffusion and Adoption Models. In: Leeflang, P., Wieringa, J., Bijmolt, T., Pauwels, K. (eds) Advanced Methods for Modeling Markets. International Series in Quantitative Marketing. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-53469-5_10

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