Risk

Abstract

In terms of social contracts, designs may be assessed according to how well they respect people’s rights and how well they promote social justice. One limitation of this approach is that it omits the importance of prediction in design assessment. That is, designs are configured according to assumptions about what the future will be like. As noted in our discussion of rational design, predictions about the future can be inaccurate. Yet, our discussion of designs and social contracts has taken no account of this fact. Fortunately, there are ways of assessing designs in light of uncertainty about how the future will turn out. In this chapter, the concept of risk is introduced. Risk assessment refers to the analysis of uncertain future impacts of decisions and is readily applied to design assessment. The expected-value model of risk is described and applied to several cases of design assessment. On this model, designs may be assessed by scrutinizing the distributions of risk that they may give rise to. In particular, the principles of collectivism, equity, and individualism in the distribution of risk are examined.