Probability and Statistical Methods

  • Zekâi ŞenEmail author


In flood frequency and discharge calculations, there are two different treatment procedures as either probabilistic or deterministic approaches. So far, the previous chapters are concerned with hydrological deterministic methods, but this chapter provides information about the probabilistic, statistical, and stochastic uncertain methods. The very bases of these approaches are the annual, partial, or hybrid selections from a given time series of extreme discharge magnitudes. The selected flood discharges are fitted to the most suitably representative probability distribution functions for risk-level calculations. Most often, the flood discharges for two-year, five-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year, and 500-year return periods are sought which correspond to 0.50, 0.20, 0.10, 0.04, 0.01, and 0.002 probability exceedence (risk) levels. Explanation of various probability papers and their theoretical background information are exposed with some examples.


Annual Frequency Distribution function Hybrid Partial Probability Probability paper Risk Safety 


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© Springer International Publishing AG 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Department of Civil EngineeringIstanbul Medipol UniversityBeykoz, IstanbulTurkey

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