Early Warning of Human Crowds Based on Query Data from Baidu Maps: Analysis Based on Shanghai Stampede
Without sufficient preparation and on-site management, the mass-scale unexpected huge human crowd is a serious threat to public safety. A recent impressive tragedy is the 2014 Shanghai Stampede, where 36 people died and 49 were injured in celebration of the New Year’s Eve on December 31st 2014 in the Shanghai Bund. Due to the innately stochastic and complicated individual movement, it is not easy to predict collective gatherings, which can potentially leads to crowd events. In this chapter, with leveraging the big data generated on Baidu Maps, we propose a novel approach to early warning such potential crowd disasters, which has profound public benefits. An insightful observation is that, with the prevalence and convenience of web map service, users usually search on the Baidu Maps to plan a routine, which reveals the users’ future destinations. Therefore, aggregating users’ query data on Baidu Maps can obtain priori and indication information for estimating future human population in a specific area ahead of time. Our careful analysis and deep investigation on the Baidu Maps’ data on various events also demonstrate a strong correlation pattern between the number of map query and the number of positioning in an area. Based on such observation, we propose a decision method utilizing query data on Baidu Maps to invoke warnings for potential crowd events about 1~3 h in advance. Then we also construct a machine learning model with heterogeneous data (such as query data and positioning data) to quantitatively measure the risk of the potential crowd disasters. We evaluate the effectiveness of our methods on the data of Baidu Maps.
KeywordsEmergency early warning Crowd anomaly prediction Map query Stampede
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