Abstract
Keynes, a world famous economist, was a prolific and skilled asset manager involved in a range of different investing activities. As chairman of the National Mutual, a life office, he was an investment visionary: he provided insurance companies with an investment blueprint for their future success and he was a successful, innovative investor despite occasional difficulties after the 1929 Crash. Keynes, helped by Harold Raynes (Actuary at Legal & General), beneficially influenced the path of asset management after 1919, particularly within life offices, but life offices could have been more successful as investing institutions had they listened to Keynes more carefully and acted more decisively. By the time of Keynes’ death in 1946, insurance company investment practice was changing.
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Notes
- 1.
National Bureau of Economic Research, Chapter 13, Interest Rates.
- 2.
Mae Baker and Michael Collins, The Asset Composition of British Life Insurance Firms, 1900–1965 (Financial History Review 10, 2003).
- 3.
Mae Baker and Michael Collins, The Asset Composition of British Life Insurance Firms, 1900–1965 (Financial History Review 10, 2003).
- 4.
Barclays Equity Gilt Study 2012.
- 5.
Barclays Equity Gilt Study 2012.
- 6.
Peter Scott, Towards the Cult of the Equity? Insurance Companies and the Inter-war Capital Markets (The Economic History Review Feb 2002).
- 7.
The idea originated from George May at the Prudential in the early part of 1915 having been seconded to the Treasury. The Prudential was paid the full market value for its dollar securities and the exercise, which completed in the summer of 1915, was adjudged a success. The scheme was then applied to other British insurance companies from January 1916 onwards. See, Laurie Dennett, A Sense of Security (Granta 1998), 206.
- 8.
Michael Moss, Standard Life, 1825–2000 (Mainstream 2000) 178. This was referred to as ‘Scheme A’ and covered North American securities and represented a simple requisitioning of assets. ‘Scheme B’ was more successful; it covered other overseas securities and the they were treated as collateral by the government, returned to the institutions after 5 years and dividends were also paid to the underlying owner of the assets.
- 9.
Michael Moss, Standard Life, 1825–2000 (Mainstream 2000) 175. Keynes worked at the UK Treasury from the beginning of 1915 until the middle of 1919.
- 10.
John Butt, Standard Life, in The Business of Insurance, ed. Oliver Westall (Manchester University Press 1984) 169.
- 11.
Scottish Widows Annual Report, 1913 (Lloyds Banking Group Archives).
- 12.
Scottish Widows Annual Report, 1916 (Lloyds Banking Group Archives).
- 13.
Scottish Widows Annual Report, 1916 (Lloyds Banking Group Archives).
- 14.
Scottish Widows Annual Report, 1918 (Lloyds Banking Group Archives). During the First World War, sales of securities were left to the discretion of individual institutions so the process was not centralised. Expropriation of investment assets would be repeated during the Second World War on an even larger scale, this time orchestrated by Carlyle Gifford, the eponymous founder of Baillie Gifford, under the auspices once again of the UK Treasury. This time asset sales were centralised and done very quickly. Gifford appears later in this chapter working with both Scottish Widows and Keynes. The full story of Gifford’s role in the US during the Second World War is recounted in Richard Burns’ History of Baillie Gifford, A century of Investing (Birlinn 2008).
- 15.
The Economist, 21 May 1921.
- 16.
Barry Supple, Royal Exchange Assurance (Cambridge University Press 1970) 444.
- 17.
George Clayton & William Osborn, Insurance Company Investment (Allen & Unwin 1965) 62.
- 18.
George May, The Investment of Life Assurance Funds (Journal of the Institute of Actuaries 46/2, April 1912).
- 19.
George May, The Investment of Life Assurance Funds (Journal of the Institute of Actuaries 46/2, April 1912).
- 20.
Laurie Dennett, A Sense of Security: 150 Years of Prudential (Granta 1998) 262.
- 21.
Marks and Falk persuaded Keynes to become a director of the National Mutual in 1919. Falk trained and qualified as an actuary at the National Mutual which he left in 1914. Falk worked with Keynes at the Treasury in 1917 and they cooperated on several investment ventures after 1918: for example, both were directors of the National Mutual (Falk from 1918), the Provincial, the PR and the Independent Investment Company. Falk became a Partner in Buckmaster & Moore, Keynes’ principal stockbroker.
- 22.
Peter Scott, Towards the Cult of the Equity? Insurance Companies and the Inter-war Capital Markets (The Economic History Review, Feb 2002).
- 23.
Scottish Widows Annual Reports (Lloyds Banking Group Archives).
- 24.
Peter Scott, Towards the Cult of the Equity? Insurance Companies and the Inter-war Capital Markets (The Economic History Review Feb 2002).
- 25.
Richard Davenport-Hines, Universal Man, The Seven Lives of John Maynard Keynes (William Collins 2015) Chapter 5.
- 26.
Keynes’ Collected Writings were published from 1971 and ran to 30 volumes.
- 27.
Richard (‘Dick’) Kent, Keynes’ Investment Activities While in the Treasury During World War 1 (History of Economics Review 56, Summer 2012).
- 28.
Richard (‘Dick’) Kent, Keynes’ Investment Activities While in the Treasury During World War 1 (History of Economics Review 56, Summer 2012).
- 29.
Richard (‘Dick’) Kent, Keynes’ Investment Activities While in the Treasury During World War 1 (History of Economics Review 56, Summer 2012).
- 30.
Richard (‘Dick’) Kent, Keynes’ Investment Activities While in the Treasury During World War 1 (History of Economics Review 56, Summer 2012).
- 31.
Richard (‘Dick’) Kent, Keynes’ Investment Activities While in the Treasury During World War 1 (History of Economics Review 56, Summer 2012).
- 32.
Clive Bell, Old Friends (Harcourt Brace 1957) 45.
- 33.
Nicholas Davenport, Keynes in the City in Essays on John Maynard Keynes, ed. Milo Keynes (Cambridge University Press 1975) Chapter 20. Davenport was a director of National Mutual from 1932 to 1969.
- 34.
Keynes created and was a Director of two investment companies, AD and PR, which were investment vehicles for friends and family; investment advice was given to Sir Ernest Debenham and others for which he was paid; he was closely involved in managing the investment portfolios for two insurance companies – the National Mutual (Keynes was Chairman between 1921 and 1938) and the Provincial (Keynes was a Director from 1923 to 1946); at Kings College Cambridge, as Bursar, he managed the endowment for over 25 years and created a Discretionary Fund; he advised Eton; he established and was a Director of a publicly quoted investment trust, The Independent; and he managed his own money very actively.
- 35.
David Chambers et al., Keynes, The Stock Market Investor: A Quantitative Analysis (Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 50/4, 2015); David Chambers and Elroy Dimson, Retrospectives: John Maynard Keynes, Investment Innovator (Journal of Economic Perspectives 27/3, 2013).
- 36.
David Chambers & Elroy Dimson, The British Origins of the US Endowment Model (Financial Analysts Journal 71/2, 2015).
- 37.
Oliver Westall, Riding the Tiger (University of Lancaster Management School 1992).
- 38.
Oliver Westall, The Provincial Insurance Company (Manchester University Press 1992) 382.
- 39.
The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes Volume 12 (‘CW XII’) was first published in 1983. In this chapter I have quoted extensively from the 2013 edition produced by the Cambridge University Press. This volume covers a range of his investment activities and writing about asset management, with particular reference to Kings College Cambridge and the Provincial Insurance Company: it is required reading for anybody interested in investment. He wrote critically about market irrationality and investing in Chapter 12 of The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money published in 1936.
- 40.
For example, Smith analysed the returns and income produced on various portfolios consisting of only 10 equity holdings, equally weighted, over different time periods.
- 41.
Edgar Lawrence Smith, Common Stocks as Long Term Investments (Macmillan 1928) 89.
- 42.
Edgar Lawrence Smith, Common Stocks as Long Term Investments (Macmillan 1928) 85.
- 43.
Ali Kabiri, The Great Crash of 1929 (Palgrave Macmillan 2015) 2.
- 44.
Keynes, An American Study of Shares Versus Bonds as Permanent Investments (CW XII) 247–252.
- 45.
Keynes, An American Study of Shares Versus Bonds as Permanent Investments (CW XII) 251.
- 46.
Keynes, An American Study of Shares Versus Bonds as Permanent Investments (CW XII) 252.
- 47.
Harold Raynes, The Place of Ordinary Stocks and Shares in the Investment of Life Assurance Funds. (Journal of the Institute of Actuaries 59, 1928) Raynes submitted the paper in November 1927; it was discussed on 1 March 1928.
- 48.
HF Purchase, Memoir (Journal of the Institute of Actuaries 90, 1964). Obituary or ‘memoir’ to Raynes; the tone of this piece is warm and understated rather than effusive.
- 49.
Harold Raynes, The place of ordinary stocks and shares in the investment of life assurance funds (Journal of the Institute of Actuaries 59, 1928).
- 50.
Harold Raynes, The place of ordinary stocks and shares in the investment of life assurance funds (Journal of the Institute of Actuaries 59, 1928) It should also be noted that the subsequent discussion of the paper at the meeting was remarkably supportive of the analysis by Raynes. Two of those making contributions from the floor were close friends of Keynes, Recknell assistant Actuary at the National Mutual and RG Hawtrey, an influential economist and former ‘Apostle’ at Cambridge University and an Eton man, so the same background as Keynes. Hawtrey was firmly in the Keynes camp and they shared similar views about the nature of the depression and the importance of credit.
- 51.
The Economist, Life Office Investments, 28 October 1927.
- 52.
Harold Raynes, Equities and Fixed Interest Stocks during 25 Years (Journal of the Institute of Actuaries 68, 1937).
- 53.
Similar to Keynes, Benjamin Graham was a polymath. He was offered teaching positions in three different faculties at the University of Columbia in 1914 prior to his graduation. In addition to being a successful investor, teacher and writer he also held several US patents (one relating to the slide rule) and even wrote a Broadway play (www.c250.columbia.edu/c250_celebrates/your_Columbians/benjamin_graham, website accessed 15 October 2016).
- 54.
Maria Cristina Marcuzzo, Keynes and Cambridge, in The Cambridge Companion to Keynes, ed. Backhouse & Bateman (Cambridge University Press 2006) 122.
- 55.
John Maynard Keynes (www.sandaire.com, website accessed 4 May 2016).
- 56.
Provincial Insurance Company (CWXII) 50–88. The correspondence highlights Keynes growing interest in ‘bottom-up’ equity investing in particular so there is lots of correspondence about individual holdings and the exposures to mining stocks for example.
- 57.
Oliver Westall, Riding the Tiger (University of Lancaster Management School 1992).
- 58.
Report to the Annual Meeting of the National Mutual, 18 January 1922 (CWXII) 121 and The Times 19 January 1922. Note that in the various accounts by The Times of Keynes’ speeches over the years, they drew a distinction between ‘cheers and cheering’, ‘applause’ and general support in the form of ‘here here’.
- 59.
Keynes, Investment policy for insurance companies, May 1924 (CW XII) 240–244.
- 60.
Report to the Annual Meeting of the National Mutual, 29 January 1923 (CW XII) 125.
- 61.
CW XII, 155.
- 62.
Report to the Annual General Meeting of the National Mutual, 25 January 1928 (CW XII) 155.
- 63.
Report to the Annual General Meeting of the National Mutual, 25 January 1928 (CW XII) 161.
- 64.
The Times, 26 January 1928; The Economist 28 January 1928; The Scotsman 30 January 1928.
- 65.
The Times, 26 January 1928. Keynes must have given a separate briefing to the paper because the last point about senile directors of life assurance companies was not included in his official address to the meeting in the Annual Report.
- 66.
The Economist, 28 January 1928.
- 67.
National Mutual Private Minutes, Board & Finance Committee, 4 June 1924 (LMA MS 34469).
- 68.
National Mutual Private Minutes, Board & Finance Committee, 4 June 1924 (LMA MS 34469).
- 69.
National Mutual Private Minutes, Board & Finance Committee, 12 August 1925 (LMA MS 34469).
- 70.
Report to the Annual General Meeting of the National Mutual, 30 January 1929 (CW XII) 161.
- 71.
With reference to the US market in 1929, Falk adopted a similar stance at the Independent (Appendix) and at the Provincial Insurance Company where Scott removed him from the investment committee after 1930.
- 72.
Falk to Marks, letter 26 September 1929, National Mutual, Investment Policy to 1930 (LMA MS 34526/1).
- 73.
Buckmaster & Moore research note, 13 November 1929, National Mutual, Investment Policy to 1930 (LMA MS 34526/1).
- 74.
Marks to the board, memorandum 1 December 1930, National Mutual, Investment Policy to 1930 (LMA MS 34526/1).
- 75.
Report to the Annual General Meeting of the National Mutual January 1924 (CW XII) 130–135.
- 76.
In the USA the market fell from October 1929 to July 1932, so a period of more than 2.5 years.
- 77.
Recknell to the board, memorandum 7 January 1931, National Mutual, Private Minutes, Board and Finance Committee (LMA MS 34469).
- 78.
Recknell to the board, memorandum 13 January 1932, National Mutual Private Minutes, Board & Finance Committee (LMA MS 34469).
- 79.
The Economist, 5 March 1932, was sympathetic to the problems at the National Mutual and reiterated its support for Keynes’ innovative investment policy. The paper supported the policy of greater transparency and called the decision to postpone the valuation, ‘wise and necessary’.
- 80.
Report to the Annual General Meeting of the National Mutual March 1933 (CW XII) 199.
- 81.
Clive Trebilcock, Phoenix Assurance and the Development of British Insurance: Vol 2, 1870–1984 (Cambridge University Press 1999) 599. This referred to a comment in the Bankers Magazine.
- 82.
Report to the Annual General Meeting of the National Mutual, 2 March 1932 (CW XII) 187.
- 83.
Recknell to the National Mutual Board, memorandum 7 January 1931 National Mutual (LMA MS 34469).
- 84.
Recknell to the National Mutual Board, memorandum 10 May 1938, National Mutual, Investment Policy after 1930 (LMA 34526/2).
- 85.
The Times, 24 February 1938.
- 86.
Barclays Equity Gilt Study 2012.
- 87.
Michael Moss, Standard Life, 1825–2000 (Mainstream 2000) 117 & 387. James Ivory was a Director of Standard Life after 1906.
- 88.
Michael Moss, Standard Life, 1825–2000 (Mainstream 2000) 194.
- 89.
Michael Moss, Standard Life, 1825–2000 (Mainstream 2000) 193/4 & 387.
- 90.
Michael Moss, Standard Life, 1825–2000 (Mainstream 2000) 387.
- 91.
Peter Scott, Towards the Cult of the Equity? Insurance Companies and the Inter-war Capital Markets (The Economic History Review, Feb 2002).
- 92.
Michael Moss Standard Life 1825–2000 (Mainstream 2000) 194. Moss recounts the story that Macnaghten went to the Sates in the summer of 1929 and returned to Edinburgh very enthusiastic to invest in the equity market but was dissuaded from doing so by James Ivory.
- 93.
Michael Moss Standard Life 1825–2000 (Mainstream 2000) 194.
- 94.
GH Recknell Personal Files, 26 August 1975 (LMA, MS 34568). It is not clear if this document, dedicated to Recknell, was a memoir or an obituary and there was no named author.
- 95.
Scottish Widows Annual Report, 1913 (Lloyds Banking Group Archives).
- 96.
Scottish Widows Annual Report, 1920 (Lloyds Banking Group Archives).
- 97.
Scottish Widows Annual Report, 1920 (Lloyds Banking Group Archives and Minute Book XIII, 1918–1923, SW 3/2/13).
- 98.
Even as late as the 1930s loans were being provided by Scottish Widows. For example, in 1933, £5,000 was loaned to Gullane Golf Club for 15 years at 5% to enable the club to purchase the freehold land for courses called ‘Number 1, 2 and 3’ (Lloyds Banking Group Archives, SW 5/1/6 Minute Book 6).
- 99.
The Wall Street Crash occurred on 29 October 1929. These decisions by Scottish Widows to buy ordinary shares took place between 18 October and 15 November 1929. As noted, Scottish Widows continued buying steadily through the prolonged market falls.
- 100.
Scottish Widows Minute Book 5 SW 5/1/5, Pages 23 and 35 (Lloyds Banking Group Archives).
- 101.
Scottish Widows Minute Book 5 SW 5/1/5, Pages 23 and 35 (Lloyds Banking Group Archives).
- 102.
Scottish Widows Minute Book 5 SW 5/1/5, Page 55 (Lloyds Banking Group Archives).
- 103.
Scottish Widows Minute Book 5 SW 5/1/5, Page 130 (Lloyds Banking Group Archives). The proposal from the Manager that a target weighting of 6% in US equities was accepted.
- 104.
Scottish Widows Minute Book 5 SW 5/1/5, Page 135 and SW 5/1/6 (Lloyds Banking Group Archives). As noted previously, both preferred and ordinary shares have been treated as equity instruments throughout this narrative.
- 105.
Scottish Widows Annual Reports, 1922 and 1947 (Lloyds Banking Group Archives).
- 106.
Laurie Dennett, A Sense of Security: 150 years of Prudential (Granta 1998) 262. George May after retiring from the Prudential in early 1931 chaired the May Committee, which advocated government expenditure cuts in 1931. This was in direct contradiction to Keynes who argued against deflationary policies. It is unlikely that May and Keynes would have shared similar investment ideas.
- 107.
Peter Scott, Towards the Cult of the Equity? Insurance Companies and the Inter-war Capital Markets (The Economic History Review, Feb 2002).
- 108.
Peter Scott, Towards the Cult of the Equity? Insurance companies and the Inter-war Capital Markets (The Economic History Review, Feb 2002).
- 109.
Peter Scott, Towards the Cult of the Equity? Insurance Companies and the Inter-war Capital Markets (The Economic History Review, Feb 2002).
- 110.
Peter Scott, Towards the Cult of the Equity? Insurance Companies and the Inter-war Capital Markets (The Economic History Review, Feb 2002).
- 111.
AC Murray, The Investment Policy of Life Assurance Offices (Transactions of the Faculty of Actuaries 16/152, 1937).
- 112.
Mae Baker and Michael Collins, The asset composition of British life insurance firms, 1900–1965 (Financial History Review 10, 2003) 137–164. Note that May and Collins explain in their very informative paper that ordinary shares became the largest asset class in 1954 but that date is not shown in the table.
- 113.
Nicholas Davenport, Keynes in the City, in Essays on John Maynard Keynes, ed. Milo Keynes (Cambridge University Press 1975) Chapter 20.
- 114.
Mae Baker and Michael Collins, The asset composition of British life insurance firms, 1900–1965 (Financial History Review 10, 2003). Additionally, it should be noted that two small life offices National Farmers and Friends Provident, both mutuals, had, respectively, 29% and 22% invested in ordinary shares as at 1937.
- 115.
William Penman, A Review of Investment Principles and Practice (Journal of the Institute of Actuaries 64/3, 1933).
- 116.
Coutts had trained at the National Mutual, he invested materially in ordinary shares at the National Provident where he was the Actuary, he was friendly to Keynes and he joined the Independent Investment Company in 1932 as a director. He was a natural adversary of Penman.
- 117.
Scottish Widows Annual Report, 1941 (Lloyds Banking Group Archives). The report explained that the large increase in holdings of government bonds was attributable to, ‘in the main from the requisitioning of the British Government of holdings of securities in the United States’.
- 118.
Richard Burns, A Century of Investing: Baillie Gifford’s First 100 Years (Birlinn 2008) Chapter 4. This chapter contains a comprehensive account of Gifford’s activities in the US liquidating British investments and that Keynes disagreed with the rapid pace of disposals by Gifford. It also highlights an incident in which Gifford and Keynes clashed over the valuation assigned to Viscose, an unquoted subsidiary of Courtaulds.
- 119.
Scottish Widows Annual Report, 1947 (Lloyds Banking Group Archives).
- 120.
Scottish Widows Annual Report, 1916 (Lloyds Banking Group Archives).
- 121.
Scottish Widows Annual Reports, 1948 & 1957 (Lloyds Banking Group Archives). Of note, for the first time, holdings of ordinary shares by Scottish Widows exceeded those of preference shares in 1948.
- 122.
Clive Trebilcock, Phoenix Assurance and the Development of British Insurance: Vol 2, 1870–1984 (Cambridge University Press 1999) 598. Trebilcock argued that Keynes did not materially influence the investment policies of insurance companies during the inter-war years and that the increase in holdings of ordinary shares was not a trend but an anomaly owing to the data being skewed by the actions of a small number of very large companies such as the Prudential. Subsequent work by Scott (2002) and Baker and Collins (2003) suggest that Trebilcock’s analysis was incorrect.
- 123.
Nicholas Davenport, Memoirs of a City Radical (Willmer Bros 1974) 49.
- 124.
Nicholas Davenport, Keynes in the City, in Essays on John Maynard Keynes, ed. Milo Keynes (Cambridge, 1975) Chapter 20. It is not stated but presumably the date of this first meeting between Marks and Keynes was 1919, just after he had been appointed a director in September.
- 125.
Nicholas Davenport, Keynes in the City, in Essays on Keynes, ed. Milo Keynes (Cambridge, 1975) Chapter 20.
- 126.
The National Mutual Life Assurance Society, CW XII, 37.
- 127.
Report to the Annual General Meeting of the National Mutual, 20 February 1938 (CW XII) 233.
- 128.
Eric Street, The National Mutual Life Assurance Society 1830–1980 (National Mutual, 1980) 35.
- 129.
George Ross Goobey, Draft Review of Investment Policy for the Pension Fund, 1 May 1957 (LMA/4481/a/01/001).
- 130.
The Economist, 26 February 1938. Chambers and Dimson make a similar point about Keynes being a generation ahead of other institutional investors in their extensive analysis of Keynes’ investment activities at Kings College, Cambridge.
- 131.
Barclays Equity Gilt Study 2012.
- 132.
Report to the Annual General Meeting of the National Mutual, 20 February 1938 (CW XII) 238.
- 133.
Keynes to Curzon, letter 1 March 1938 (CW XII) 38.
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Morecroft, N.E. (2017). Life Office Investment 1900–1960 and John Maynard Keynes. In: The Origins of Asset Management from 1700 to 1960. Palgrave Studies in the History of Finance. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-51850-3_5
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