Abstract
An assurance case provides a structured argument to establish a claim for a system based on evidence about the system and its environment. I propose a simple interpretation for the overall argument that uses epistemic methods for its evidential or leaf steps and logic for its reasoning or interior steps: evidential steps that cross some threshold of credibility are accepted as premises in a classical deductive interpretation of the reasoning steps. Thus, all uncertainty is located in the assessment of evidence. I argue for the utility of this interpretation.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
Some would allow disjunctions and general logical expressions. My opinion is that these are the hallmarks of evidential—rather than reasoning—steps.
- 2.
This Latin phrase is usually translated “other things being equal”.
References
RTCA, Washington, DC: DO-178C: Software Considerations in Airborne Systems and Equipment Certification (2011)
Society of Automotive Engineers: Aerospace Recommended Practice (ARP) 4754A: Certification Considerations for Highly-Integrated or Complex Aircraft Systems. Also issued as EUROCAE ED-79 (2010)
Society of Automotive Engineers: Aerospace Recommended Practice (ARP) 4761: Guidelines and Methods for Conducting the Safety Assessment Process on Civil Airborne Systems and Equipment (1996)
Holloway, C.M.: Explicate ’78: discovering the implicit assurance case in DO-178C. In: Parsons, M., Anderson, T. (eds.) Engineering Systems for Safety. Proceedings of 23rd Safety-critical Systems Symposium, Bristol, UK, pp. 205–225 (2015)
Rushby, J., Xu, X., Rangarajan, M., Weaver, T.L.: Understanding and evaluating assurance cases. NASA Contractor Report NASA/CR-2015-218802, NASA Langley Research Center (2015)
Toulmin, S.E.: The Uses of Argument. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2003). Updated edition (the original is dated 1958)
Adams, E.W.: A Primer of Probability Logic. Center for the Study of Language and Information (CSLI), Stanford University (1998)
Good, I.J.: Probability and the Weighing of Evidence. Charles Griffin, London (1950)
Good, I.J.: Weight of evidence: a brief survey. In: Bernardo, J., et al. (eds.) Bayesian Statistics 2: Proceedings of the Second Valencia International Meeting, Valencia, Spain, pp. 249–270 (1983)
Bovens, L., Hartmann, S.: Bayesian Epistemology. Oxford University Press, Oxford (2003)
Earman, J.: Bayes or Bust? A Critical Examination of Bayesian Confirmation Theory. MIT Press, Cambridge (1992)
Dawid, A.P.: Bayes’s theorem and weighing evidence by juries. In: Swinburne, R. (ed.) Bayes’s Theorem. Proceedings of the British Academy, pp. 71–90 (2002)
Jeffrey, R.: Subjective Probability: The Real Thing. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2004)
Fitelson, B.: Studies in Bayesian Confirmation Theory. Ph.D. thesis, Department of Philosophy, University of Wisconsin, Madison (2001)
Tentori, K., Crupi, V., Bonini, N., Osherson, D.: Comparison of confirmation measures. Cognition 103, 107–119 (2007)
Joyce, J.M.: On the plurality of probabilist measures of evidential relevance. In: Bayesian Epistemology Workshop of the 26th International Wittgenstein Symposium, Kirchberg, Austria (2003)
Gardner-Medwin, T.: What probability should a jury address? Significance 2, 9–12 (2005)
Littlewood, B., Wright, D.: The use of multi-legged arguments to increase confidence in safety claims for software-based systems: a study based on a BBN analysis of an idealised example. IEEE Trans. Softw. Eng. 33, 347–365 (2007)
HUGIN Expert: Hugin home page. http://www.hugin.com/. Accessed 2015
Hawkins, R., Kelly, T., Knight, J., Graydon, P.: A new approach to creating clear safety arguments. In: Dale, C., Anderson, T. (eds.) Advances in System Safety: Proceedings of 19th Safety-Critical Systems Symposium, pp. 3–23. Springer, London (2011)
Hempel, C.G.: Provisoes: a problem concerning the inferential function of scientific theories. Erkenntnis 28, 147–164 (1988)
Suppe, F.: Hempel and the problem of provisos. In: Fetzer, J.H. (ed.) Science, Explanation, and Rationality: Aspects of the Philosophy of Carl G. Hempel, pp. 186–213. Oxford University Press, Oxford (2000)
Earman, J., Roberts, J., Smith, S.: Ceteris paribus lost. Erkenntnis 57, 281–301 (2002)
Rushby, J., Owre, S., Shankar, N.: Subtypes for specifications: predicate subtyping in PVS. IEEE Trans. Softw. Eng. 24, 709–720 (1998)
Zeng, F., Lu, M., Zhong, D.: Using D-S evidence theory to evaluation of confidence in safety case. J. Theor. Appl. Inform. Technol. 47, 184–189 (2013)
Denney, E., Pai, G., Habli, I.: Towards measurement of confidence in safety cases. In: Fifth International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering and Measurement (ESEM), Banff, Canada, pp. 380–383. IEEE Computer Society (2011)
Ossowski, S. (ed.): Agreement Technologies. Law, Governance and Technology Series, vol. 8. Springer, Heidelberg (2013)
Haley, C.B., Laney, R., Moffett, J.D., Nuseibeh, B.: Security requirements engineering: a framework for representation and analysis. IEEE Trans. Softw. Eng. 34, 133–153 (2008)
Acknowledgments
This work was partially funded by NASA under contract NNL13AA00B to The Boeing Company, and by SRI International. I benefited from many suggestions by Michael Holloway, our NASA contract monitor, but the content is solely the responsibility of the author and does not necessarily represent the official views of NASA. Thoughtful comments by the anonymous reviewers improved the presentation of this material.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2017 Springer International Publishing AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Rushby, J. (2017). On the Interpretation of Assurance Case Arguments. In: Otake, M., Kurahashi, S., Ota, Y., Satoh, K., Bekki, D. (eds) New Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence. JSAI-isAI 2015. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 10091. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-50953-2_23
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-50953-2_23
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-50952-5
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-50953-2
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)