Deterrence Without Nuclear Weapons?

Abstract

The main problem may not be nuclear weapons themselves, but the concept of deterrence. A concept that has become perhaps irreversibly nuclear in nature, especially for the USA. But deterrence is here to stay. It was a fundamental strategic concept well before the nuclear age—nuclear weapons are just one more instrument that can be used to manage it. Now, nuclear deterrence may have emerged with the Cold War, but that does not mean that just because the Cold War is over, nuclear weapons and deterrence are no longer relevant to US grand strategy and security.¹ To the extent that it would be difficult to envisage returning to non-nuclear capabilities as the primary instruments for deterring major war between great powers. Instead, US nuclear strategy will have to be continually updated to deal with new technologies, new threats, and new contexts, especially given the fundamental transformations underway in both Europe and the Asia-Pacific today.