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International Conference on Complex Systems Design & Management

CSDM 2016: Complex Systems Design & Management pp 125–140Cite as

Assessment of Resilience in Desalination Infrastructure Using Semi-Markov Models

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Abstract

As the supply of desalinated water becomes significant in many countries, the reliable long-term operation of desalination infrastructure becomes paramount. As it is not realistic to build desalination systems with components that never fail, instead the system should be designed with more resilience. To answer the question how resilient the system should be, we present in this paper a quantitative approach to measure system resilience using semi-Markov models. This approach allows to probabilistically represent the resilience of a desalination system, considering the functional or failed states of its components, as well as the probability of failure and repair rates. As the desalination plants are connected with the end-user through water transportation and distribution networks, this approach also enables an evaluation of various network configurations and resilience strategies. A case study addressing a segment of the water system in Saudi Arabia is given with the results, benefits, and limitations of the technique discussed.

Keywords

  • System resilience
  • Water system
  • Semi-Markov process

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Abbreviations

CDF:

Cumulative Distribution Function

MRP:

Markov Renewal Process

MTBF:

Mean Time Between Failures

MTTR:

Mean Time to Repair

PDF:

Probability Distribution Function

SDR:

Standard Deviation in Repair Time

SMP:

Semi-Markov Processes

SWCC:

Saline Water Conversion Corporation

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank all the SSDN project team members for their collaboration, comments and feedback. This research was supported by the Center for Complex Engineering Systems (CCES) at MIT and KACST (http://www.cces-kacst-mit.org/). This research was supported by a NASA Space Technology Research Fellowship (grant number NNX14AM42H).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Complex Engineering Systems at KACST and MIT, PO Box 6086, Riyadh, 11442, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

    Abdulaziz Khiyami & Adnan Alsaati

  2. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Building E40-261, Cambridge, MA, 02139-4307, USA

    Andrew Owens, Abdelkrim Doufene & Olivier de Weck

Authors
  1. Abdulaziz Khiyami
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  2. Andrew Owens
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  3. Abdelkrim Doufene
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  4. Adnan Alsaati
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  5. Olivier de Weck
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Abdulaziz Khiyami .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Dassault Systèmes, Vélizy-Villacoublay, France

    Gauthier Fanmuy

  2. École Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France

    Eric Goubault

  3. CESAMES, Paris, France

    Daniel Krob

  4. IRT SystemX, Palaiseau, France

    François Stephan

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Khiyami, A., Owens, A., Doufene, A., Alsaati, A., de Weck, O. (2017). Assessment of Resilience in Desalination Infrastructure Using Semi-Markov Models. In: Fanmuy, G., Goubault, E., Krob, D., Stephan, F. (eds) Complex Systems Design & Management. CSDM 2016. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49103-5_10

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49103-5_10

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-49102-8

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-49103-5

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

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