Abstract
In this chapter, we set out the various stages of what we term the ‘basic method’ of scenario development. This method and the modes of inquiry that underpin it are fundamental to the augmented approaches that we introduce later, so we advise reading carefully and understanding fully. We illustrate the approach at each stage with examples and suggest that you work through a similar example from your own field as you proceed.
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References
Jungermann, H., & Thuring, M. (1987). The Use of Mental Models for Generating Scenarios. In G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.), Judgmental Forecasting. London: Wiley.
Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. New York: Currency Doubleday.
van der Heijden, K., Bradfield, R., Burt, G., Cairns, G., & Wright, G. (2002). The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios. Chichester: Wiley.
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Cairns, G., Wright, G. (2018). Working with Scenarios: Introducing the Basic Method. In: Scenario Thinking. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49067-0_2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49067-0_2
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Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-49066-3
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-49067-0
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