Abstract
The aim of this paper is to search for the impact of the Eurozone Crisis on Turkish foreign trade. To that end, panel data analysis is used for 15 Eurozone members and for the period of 1995–2011. The main finding of the empirical study is that private sector debt of the Eurozone states has a negative relationship with Turkish trade balance. This paper also presents the establishment of a monitoring mechanisms related to trade and debt and close cooperation of Turkish governmental institutions with EU authorities as policy recommendations.
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Notes
- 1.
The export data used in the study covers the time period of 1996–2006 for Turkish manufacturing sector based on a two-digit level ISIC. The data set related to wages and productivity of manufacturing sector is driven from TUIK and CPI-based REER data was obtained from CBRT.
- 2.
Data used in the study belongs to Australia, Canada, Denmark, Japan,Korea, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom and United States of America as advanced economies and Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey and Venezuela as the emerging countries between January 2010–May 2013.
- 3.
Data used in the study belongs to 18 OECD countries between 1980 and 2010.
- 4.
Data used in the study is based on 29 OECD countries between 1995Q1–2009Q1.
- 5.
Data in the study belongs to Turkey and starts at 2000Q1 and end at 2012Q2.
- 6.
Data used in this study is between 2000Q1 and 2011Q3 and covers 11 Asian economies (the PRC, Hong Kong- China, India, Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taipei-China, Thailand, and Viet Nam).
- 7.
Data used in the study is Turkish exports data driven from TUIK and EU countries GDP data driven from the Worldbank between 1960 and 2012.
- 8.
Countries in the study are; Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Finland, Portugal, Ireland and Luxembourg. Time frame covered is 1995 Q1–2013Q3. Data source is Eurostat and ECB.
- 9.
Luxembourg and Malta are not included in the analyis due to lack of significant data. Therefore, 15 member states were included in the analysis as of 2011.
- 10.
IPS test is an extend version of Levin-Lin-Chu (LLC) test (2002) which does not require the panel data sets to be balanced and also developed a set of tests which relax the assumption of a common autoregressive parameter. “Im, Pesaran, and Shin assume that \( {\varepsilon}_{it} \) is independently distributed normal for all i and t, and they allow it to have heterogeneous variances \( {\sigma_i}^2 \) i across panels.” (Stata 2015, p 13)
- 11.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller (1979) test asserts a null hypothesis as all panels are unit root, and the alternative is that at least one panel is stationary.
- 12.
Their study was conducted with 3045 non-financial firms from 16 different countries in the 2010–2011 era.
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Ersoy, İ., Baykal, B. (2017). The Impact of the Eurozone Crisis on Turkish Foreign Trade. In: Hacioğlu, Ü., Dinçer, H. (eds) Global Financial Crisis and Its Ramifications on Capital Markets. Contributions to Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-47021-4_8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-47021-4_8
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