A Case of An Almost Complete Demographic Transition: South Africa



South Africa’s demographic transition is substantially complete, with fertility rates just above replacement level. This chapter describes the changing demography of South Africa from 1980 to 2015, and looks ahead to 2050. Using conventional metrics, the demographic window opened in South Africa in 2009, and will remain open beyond 2050. However, the pace of demographic change historically has been so slow that there has been (and will be) no ‘youth bulge’ to speak of. Systemic factors associated with the country’s apartheid past and limited domestic saving, by hampering the formation of capital domestically, will impede the collection of any demographic dividend.


Demographic Transition Fertility Decline South African Population Demographic Dividend Funded Public Pension 
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© Springer International Publishing AG 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.University of Cape TownCape TownSouth Africa

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