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Environmental Radiation Effects on Mammals pp 161–200Cite as

Individual-Based Approach to Radiation Risk Assessment

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Abstract

Chapter 6 is devoted to the development and thorough study of the biologically motivated mathematical models, which describe the dynamics of the radiation-induced mortality in homogeneous and nonhomogeneous (in radiosensitivity) populations of mammals. These models relate the statistical biometric functions with statistical and dynamic characteristics of the critical systems in specimens composing the populations. In the model of mortality for nonhomogeneous populations two types of distributions, normal and log-normal, of their specimens in radiosensitivity index of the critical system cells are considered. It is shown that the model of the homogeneous population mortality quantitatively reproduces the mortality rate of mammals (mice) after exposure to high doses and dose rate of acute and chronic irradiation when the small intestine is a critical system. This model also describes quantitatively the mortality of mice chronically irradiated at low dose rates when the hematopoietic system, namely, thrombocytopoiesis is the critical one. It is revealed that the model of mortality dynamics for nonhomogeneous population, by the same irradiation scenario, predicts higher mortality rate and lower survival that could have been predicted proceeding from the averaged values of the radiosensitivity index of cells mentioned above. The levels of doses and dose rates of acute and chronic exposures presenting a certain danger for nonhomogeneous mammalian populations decrease with increasing the variance of the corresponding distributions. The developed models outline new pathways in developing the methods of radiation risk assessment.

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  1. Research and Technical Center of Radiation-Chemical Safety and Hygiene, Moscow, Russian Federation

    Olga A. Smirnova

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Smirnova, O.A. (2017). Individual-Based Approach to Radiation Risk Assessment. In: Environmental Radiation Effects on Mammals. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-45761-1_6

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