Skip to main content

Valence and Ideological Proximity in the Rise of Nationalist Parties: Spanish General Elections, 2008 and 2011

Part of the Studies in Political Economy book series (POEC)

Abstract

During the last few years, in the aftermath of the bank crisis of 2007, anti-European and right or far-right parties started to gain more and more support across Europe (Bosco and Verney 2012). This reaction seems a natural response to austerity measures and the rise of unemployment in the region. Meanwhile, in some European regions that have a different cultural identity to the dominant identity, a seemingly significant rise of peripheral nationalism has occurred (Gómez Fortes and Cabeza Perez 2013; Brubaker 2011; Rico 2012).

Keywords

  • Spatial Model
  • Basque Country
  • Strategic Vote
  • Ideological Position
  • Nationalist Party

These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-44582-3_5
  • Chapter length: 38 pages
  • Instant PDF download
  • Readable on all devices
  • Own it forever
  • Exclusive offer for individuals only
  • Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout
eBook
USD   139.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • ISBN: 978-3-319-44582-3
  • Instant PDF download
  • Readable on all devices
  • Own it forever
  • Exclusive offer for individuals only
  • Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout
Softcover Book
USD   179.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
Hardcover Book
USD   179.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

Notes

  1. 1.

    This argument is based on common micro economic logic: that when there is less money in the economy, any distribution toward a more egalitarian state affects the richest regions more severely (Mas-Collel et al. 1995).

  2. 2.

    Minority Parties: CiU, IU, UPyD, ERC,Amaiur, PNV, BNG; majority Parties: PP, PSOE; regional parties: CiU, ERC, Amaiur, PNV, BNG.

  3. 3.

    The spatial models are clearly not restricted to the positional models. Directional models were an important contribution to the voting theory as well (Clarke 2009).

  4. 4.

    The models for both elections (2008 and 2011) were estimated with the use of the r package jags. The following holds for both years. (1) The total number of the iterations in each of the three chains was 12,500 with the first 7500 burned. (2) According to the Raftery-Lewis diagnostic, 2 of 3 chains converged on the probability level of 0.95. (3) The scale reduction factors and the multivariate reduction factor do not exceed 1.1 according to the Gelman-Rubin diagnostic.

  5. 5.

    Via the r package factanal.

  6. 6.

    The original data were refined in the two steps. First, observations with missing or undefined variable for party voted were dropped. Second, for the remaining n = 4551(2008) and n = 4401(2011) the multiple imputation was performed via the r package mice.

  7. 7.

    In the other words, their correlation was minimized, so the basis in the two-dimensional space of these two hidden variable is considered orthogonal.

  8. 8.

    Means of the scores by region can be found in Tables 13 and 14.

  9. 9.

    According to the Gelman-Rubin diagnostic, the upper confidence interval for the potential reduction factors for μ 7 is 1.20, for the rest of the coefficients the upper C.I for their potential reduction factor is less than 1.10.

  10. 10.

    Without restricting the generality, the rjags code is given for 2008.

References

  • Albertos, J. F. (2002). Votar en dos dimensiones: el peso del nacionalismo y la ideología en el comportamiento electoral vasco, 1993–2001. Revista Española de Ciencia Política, 6(1), 153–181.

    Google Scholar 

  • Amat, F. (2012). Party competition and preferences for inter-regional redistribution in spain. South European Society and Politics, 17(3), 449–465.

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Ansolabehere, S., & Snyder, J. M. Jr. (2000). Valence politics and equilibrium in spatial election models. Public Choice, 103(3–4), 327–336.

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Balcells i Ventura, L. (2007). Es el voto nacionalista un voto de proximidad o un voto de compensación? una nueva aproximación espacial al voto en dos dimensiones. Revista española de ciencia política, 16, 61–88.

    Google Scholar 

  • Barceló, J. (2014). Contextual effects on subjective national identity. Nations and Nationalism, 20(4), 701–720.

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Bennis, W. M., Medin, D. L., & Bartels, D. M. (2010). The costs and benefits of calculation and moral rules. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 5(2), 187–202.

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Bonet, E., Montiel, S. P.-N., & Hernández, M. J. H. (2010). España en las urnas: Territorialización del voto e identidad nacional en las elecciones de 2008. In Elecciones Generales 2008 (pp. 331–364). Madrid: Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS).

    Google Scholar 

  • Bosco, A., & Verney, S. (2012). Electoral epidemic: The political cost of economic crisis in southern Europe, 2010–11. South European Society and Politics, 17(2), 129–154.

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Brubaker, R. (2011). Economic crisis, nationalism, and politicized ethnicity. In J. Fagerberg, D. Mowery, & R. Nelson (Eds.), The deepening crisis. Governance challenges after neoliberalism. New York and London: New York University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Campbell, A., Converse, P. E., Miller, W. E., & Donald, E. (1966). The American voter.

    Google Scholar 

  • Clarke, H. D. (2009). The theory of valence politics. In Performance politics and the British voter (pp. 31–52). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Clarke, H. D., Scotto, T. J., & Kornberg, A. (2011). Valence politics and economic crisis: Electoral choice in Canada 2008 Electoral studies, 30(3): 438–449.

    Google Scholar 

  • del Interior, E. M. (2015). Consulta de resultados electorales: Congreso. http://www.infoelectoral.interior.es/min/. Accessed March 16, 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dinas, E. (2012). Left and right in the basque country and catalonia: The meaning of ideology in a nationalist context. South European Society and Politics, 17(3), 467–485.

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Downs, A. (1957). An economic theory of democracy: Harper Collins

    Google Scholar 

  • Enelow, J. M., & Hinich, M. J. (1984). The spatial theory of voting: An introduction. CUP Archive.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fernández, P. A., & Rodríguez, I. S.-C. (2006). gestión o representación?: Los determinantes del voto en contextos políticos complejos. Estudios/Working Papers (Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Ciencias Sociales) (220), 1.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gallego, M., Schofield, N., McAlister, K., & Jeon, J. S. (2014). The variable choice set logit model applied to the 2004 Canadian election. Public Choice, 158(3–4), 427–463.

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., Dunson, D. B., Vehtari, A., & Rubin, D. B. (2013). Bayesian data analysis. Boca Raton, FL: CRC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Glen, D. M. (2015). The European economic crisis and rising secessionism: New demands on the european social model in Scotland, Flanders and Catalonia. In S. Romano & G. Punziano (Eds.), The European social model adrift: Europe social cohesion and the economic crisis. Surrey: Ashgate Publishing Company.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gómez Fortes, B., & Cabeza Perez, L. (2013). Basque regional elections 2012: The return of nationalism under the influence of the economic crisis. Regional & Federal Studies, 23(4), 495–505. doi:10.1080/13597566.2013.798650. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13597566.2013.798650.

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Heller, W. B. (2002). Regional parties and national politics in europe spain’s estado de las autonomías, 1993 to 2000. Comparative Political Studies, 35(6), 657–685.

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Hotelling, H. (1929). Stability in competition. The Economic Journal, 39(153), 41–57. ISSN: 00130133.

    Google Scholar 

  • Labzina, E.,& Schofield, N. (2015). Application of the variable choice logit model to the British general elections of 2010. In The Political Economy of Governance. Berlin: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Martínez-Herrera, E. (2002). From nation-building to building identification with political communities: Consequences of political decentralisation in Spain, the Basque country, Catalonia and Galicia, 1978–2001. European Journal of Political Research, 41(4), 421–453.

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Martínez-Herrera, E., & Miley, T. J. (2010). The constitution and the politics of national identity in Spain. Nations and Nationalism, 16(1), 6–30.

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Mas-Collel, A., Whinston, M. D., & Green, J. R. (1995). Micreconomic theory.

    Google Scholar 

  • Muñoz, J. (2009). From national-catholicism to democratic patriotism? democratization and reconstruction of national pride: The case of spain (1981–2000). Ethnic and Racial Studies, 32(4), 616–639.

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Navarro, V. (2014). Lo que esta pasando en catalunya y en espana. http://www.vnavarro.org/?p=11312. Accessed December 28.

  • Núñez, X.-M. (2001). What is spanish nationalism today? from legitimacy crisis to unfulfilled renovation (1975–2000). Ethnic and Racial Studies, 24(5), 719–752.

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Pérez-Nievas, S., Fraile, M. (2000). Is the nationalist vote really nationalist?: Dual voting in Catalonia 1980–1999 (Vol. 147). Madrid: Instituto Juan March de Estudios e Investigaciones.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rico, G. (2012). The 2010 regional election in catalonia: A multilevel account in an age of economic crisis. South European Society and Politics, 17(2), 217–238. doi:10.1080/13608746.2011.589140. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13608746.2011.589140.

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Schofield, N. (2003). Valence competition in the spatial stochastic model. Journal of Theoretical Politics, 15(4), 371–383.

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Schofield, N., & Sened, I. (2006). Multiparty democracy: Elections and legislative politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Stokes, D. E. (1963). Spatial models of party competition. The American Political Science Review 57, 368–377.

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Stokes, D. E. (1992). Valence politics. In Electoral politics (pp. 141–164). Oxford: Clarendon Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yamamoto, T. (2011). A Multinomial Response Model for Varying Choice Sets, with Application to Partially Contested Multiparty Elections. Technical report, Working paper.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Elena Labzina .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Appendix

Appendix

1.1 Survey Questions (The Same in 2008 and 2011)

  1. 1.

    Multiculturality/immigration issue

    Some people think it is very positive that people of different origin, culture and religion coexist in the same country (these people would be at the point 0 on the scale). Others think that the presence of migrants can endanger the values and the culture here (these would be at point 10), and there are others who would be at intermediate positions. What place would you stand? (0–10)

  2. 2.

    Government intervention in economy

    Some people think they should improve public services and benefits, even if they pay more taxes (these people would be at the point 0 on the scale). Others think it’s more important to pay less tax, even if it means reducing public services and social benefits (these would be at point 10), and there are others who would be at intermediate positions.. What place would you stand? (0–10)

  3. 3.

    Anti-terrorist policy issue

    Some people think that the only way to stop is defeat ETA policing (these people would be at the point 0 on the scale). Others think that to end ETA also need dialogue (these would be at point 10), and there are others who would be at intermediate positions. What place would you stand? (0–10)

  4. 4.

    Conservative values scale

    Some people believe that the key is to defend our traditional religious and moral values (these people would be at the point 0 on the scale), while others think the key is to defend the freedom of the individual to be and believe what you want (these would be at point 10), and there are others who would be at intermediate positions. What place would you stand? (0–10)

  5. 5.

    Decentralization

    I will now present some alternative formulas for the organization of the State in Spain. Tell me, please, what do you prefer? (0–4)

    • Just the main state without autonomous regions

    • The main state without autonomous regions as nowadays

    • The main state without autonomous regions more independent than nowadays

    • The main state with autonomous regions having an easy legal option to become independent

  6. 6.

    Nationalist self-identification

    Which of the following statements would you say best expresses your feelings? (0–4)

    • I feel only Spanish

    • I feel more Spanish than …

    • I feel as Spanish as …

    • I feel more …than Spanish

    • I feel only …

  7. 7.

    Proudness to be Spanish

    To what extent would you say that you are proud to be Spanish: very proud, proud, somewhat proud or not proud? (0–3) (Tables 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 12, 1314).

Table 5 Autonomous communities and regions of Spain
Table 6 Parties participating in General Elections in 2008
Table 7 Parties participating in General Elections in 2011
Table 8 Parties participating in General Elections in 2011
Table 9 CFA: Factor loadings for 2008
Table 10 CFA: Factor loadings for 2011
Table 11 CFA: correlation matrix for the scores, 2008
Table 12 CFA: correlation matrix for the scores, 2011
Table 13 Ideological means by region: 2008
Table 14 Ideological means by region: 2011

1.2 Implementation of the VCL

The varying choice logit with the individual voting utility function (3), for which Sect. 3 provides a theoretical description, was implemented through the Bayesian approach via Gibbs sampling (Gelman et al. 2013) in the r package rjags with R version 3.0.3.

In the beginning of the computational analysis, all estimated coefficients for the formula (3) were assigned the commonly recommended uninformative normal priors with their variances distributed inverse-gamma (Gelman et al. 2013):

$$\displaystyle\begin{array}{rcl} & \beta _{t,r(i)} \sim \mathcal{N}(0,\gamma _{\beta }),\ t \in \{ 1,2\},\forall i & {}\\ & \mu _{p} \sim \mathcal{N}(0,\gamma _{\mu _{1}}),\ p \in P & {}\\ & \mu _{p,r(i)} \sim \mathcal{N}(0,\gamma _{\mu _{2}}),\ p \in P,\forall i & {}\\ & \gamma _{beta} \sim Inv - Gamma(0.1,0.1)& {}\\ & \gamma _{mu_{1}} \sim Inv - Gamma(0.1,0.1)& {}\\ & \gamma _{mu_{2}} \sim Inv - Gamma(0.1,0.1)& {}\\ \end{array}$$

The model graph for the analysis consisted of 591,480 nodes for the data on General Spanish Elections in 2008; and 664,432 for 2011. The total number of the iterations in each of the three chains for each of the analysis was 12,500 with the first 7500 burned. Table 15 presents the deviance statistics for this estimation.

Table 15 Deviance statistics for VCL

1.2.1 Convergence Statistics

  • Spanish General Elections in 2008

    The Gelman-Rubin diagnostic.

    All points estimates for the potential scale reduction factors for the parameters did not exceed 1.04, while the upper confidence interval estimates were less than 1.15. For most of the parameters both point estimates and the upper confidence interval were 1.0. The multivariate potential scale reduction factor was 1.09.

    The Raftery-Lewis diagnostic.

    Two of three chains converged on the probability level of 0.95.

  • Spanish General Elections in 2011

    The Gelman-Rubin diagnostic.

    All points estimates for the potential scale reduction factors for the parameters did not exceed 1.07, while the upper confidence interval estimates were less than 1.2.Footnote 9 For most of the parameters both point estimates and the upper confidence interval were 1.0. The multivariate potential scale reduction factor was 1.09.

    The Raftery-Lewis diagnostic.

    Two of three chains converged on the probability level of 0.95 (Tables 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21).

Table 16 Filter matrix (\(\Phi\)) for the Spanish General Elections in 2008
Table 17 Filter matrix (\(\Phi\)) for the Spanish General Elections in 2011
Table 18 General Parliamentary elections in 2008: Spatial ideological coefficients (β 1—the central periphery dimension, β 2—socio-ecomomic dimension)
Table 19 General Parliamentary elections in 2011: Spatial ideological coefficients (β 1—the central periphery dimension, β 2—socio-ecomomic dimension)
Table 20 General Parliamentary elections in 2008: Exogenous party valence (N = 4346)
Table 21 General Parliamentary elections in 2011: Exogenous party valence (N = 4530)

1.3 Code: rjags

Footnote 10

 data2008 <−

         structure ( l i s t (

              sec= c (... ),  l r= c (... ),  vote= c (... ),

                  region= c (... ), N  =  4551, P  =  13,

                  R  =  17, psec =  c (... ),  plr  =  c (... ),

                  phi= c (... ) ),

         . Names =  c (” sec ”, ” l r ”, ”vote ”, ” region ”,

                 ” N”, ”P”, ” R”, ”psec ”, ” plr ”,” phi ”))

 model

 {

     for  ( i  in 1:N) {

         for  (p in 1:P) {

             v [ i,  p ]  <−  lambda [ p ]

                         −  beta [1,  region [ i ] ]  *  ( sec [ i ]  −  psec [ p ])ˆ2

                         −  beta [2,  region [ i ] ]  *  ( l r [ i ]  −  plr [ p ])ˆ2)

                         +  mu[ region [ i ],  p ]

             expv [ i,  p ]  <−  exp (v [ i,  p ] )  *  phi [ region [ i ],  p ]

            pv [ i,  p ]  <−  expv [ i,  p]/sum( expv [ i,  1:P] )

        }

        vote [ i ]  ˜ dcat (pv [ i,  1:P] )

    }

    lambda [ 1 ]  <−  0.00000E +00

    for  (p in 2:P) {

        lambda [ p ]  ˜ dnorm(0.00000E+00, taul )

    }

    for  ( r in 1:R)

                for  ( i  in 1:2)  {

                        beta [ i,  r ]  ˜ dnorm(0.00000E+00, tbeta )

                        }

        }

   for  ( r in 1:R) {

        for  (p in 1:P) {

            mu[ r,  p ]  ˜ dnorm(0.00000E+00, taum)

        }

    }

    taum ˜ dgamma(0.1,  0.1)

    taul  ˜ dgamma(0.1,  0.1)

    tbeta ˜ dgamma(0.1,  0.1)

}

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

Copyright information

© 2017 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Labzina, E., Barceló, J., Schofield, N. (2017). Valence and Ideological Proximity in the Rise of Nationalist Parties: Spanish General Elections, 2008 and 2011. In: Schofield, N., Caballero, G. (eds) State, Institutions and Democracy. Studies in Political Economy. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-44582-3_5

Download citation