Abstract
In this paper we study quasi-stationary distributions of non-linearly perturbed semi-Markov processes in discrete time. This type of distributions are of interest for analysis of stochastic systems which have finite lifetimes but are expected to persist for a long time. We obtain asymptotic power series expansions for quasi-stationary distributions and it is shown how the coefficients in these expansions can be computed from a recursive algorithm. As an illustration of this algorithm, we present a numerical example for a discrete time Markov chain.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsReferences
Altman, E., Avrachenkov, K.E., Núñez-Queija, R.: Perturbation analysis for denumerable Markov chains with application to queueing models. Adv. Appl. Prob. 36, 839–853 (2004)
Avrachenkov, K.E., Haviv, M.: The first Laurent series coefficients for singularly perturbed stochastic matrices. Linear Algebra Appl. 386, 243–259 (2004)
Avrachenkov, K.E., Filar, J.A., Howlett, P.G.: Analytic Perturbation Theory and Its Applications. SIAM, Philadelphia (2013)
Cheong, C.K.: Ergodic and ratio limit theorems for \(\alpha \)-recurrent semi-Markov processes. Z. Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie verw. Geb. 9, 270–286 (1968)
Cheong, C.K.: Quasi-stationary distributions in semi-Markov processes. J. Appl. Prob. 7, 388–399 (1970). (Correction in J. Appl. Prob. 7, 788)
Courtois, P.J., Louchard, G.: Approximation of eigencharacteristics in nearly-completely decomposable stochastic systems. Stoch. Process. Appl. 4, 283–296 (1976)
Darroch, J.N., Seneta, E.: On quasi-stationary distributions in absorbing discrete-time finite Markov chains. J. Appl. Prob. 2, 88–100 (1965)
Delebecque, F.: A reduction process for perturbed Markov chains. SIAM J. Appl. Math. 43, 325–350 (1983)
Englund, E., Silvestrov, D.S.: Mixed large deviation and ergodic theorems for regenerative processes with discrete time. In: Jagers, P., Kulldorff, G., Portenko, N., Silvestrov, D. (eds.) Proceedings of the Second Scandinavian-Ukrainian Conference in Mathematical Statistics, vol. I, Umeå (1997) (Also in: Theory Stoch. Process. 3(19), no. 1–2, 164–176 (1997))
Flaspohler, D.C., Holmes, P.T.: Additional quasi-stationary distributions for semi-Markov processes. J. Appl. Prob. 9, 671–676 (1972)
Gaĭtsgori, V.G., Pervozvanskiĭ, A.A.: Aggregation of states in a Markov chain with weak interaction. Cybernetics 11, 441–450 (1975)
Gyllenberg, M., Silvestrov, D.S.: Quasi-stationary distributions of stochastic metapopulation model. J. Math. Biol. 33, 35–70 (1994)
Gyllenberg, M., Silvestrov, D.S.: Quasi-stationary phenomena for semi-Markov processes. In: Janssen, J., Limnios, N. (eds.) Semi-Markov Models and Applications, pp. 33–60. Kluwer, Dordrecht (1999)
Gyllenberg, M., Silvestrov, D.S.: Quasi-Stationary Phenomena in Nonlinearly Perturbed Stochastic Systems. De Gruyter Expositions in Mathematics, vol. 44. Walter de Gruyter, Berlin (2008)
Hassin, R., Haviv, M.: Mean passage times and nearly uncoupled Markov chains. SIAM J. Discrete Math. 5(3), 386–397 (1992)
Kingman, J.F.C.: The exponential decay of Markov transition probabilities. Proc. Lond. Math. Soc. 13, 337–358 (1963)
Latouche, G.: First passage times in nearly decomposable Markov chains. In: Stewart, W.J. (ed.) Numerical Solution of Markov Chains. Probability: Pure and Applied, vol. 8, pp. 401–411. Marcel Dekker, New York (1991)
Latouche, G., Louchard, G.: Return times in nearly-completely decomposable stochastic processes. J. Appl. Prob. 15, 251–267 (1978)
Petersson, M.: Asymptotics of ruin probabilities for perturbed discrete time risk processes. In: Silvestrov, D., Martin-Löf, A. (eds.) Modern Problems in Insurance Mathematics. EAA Series, pp. 95–112. Springer, Cham (2014)
Petersson, M.: Quasi-stationary distributions for perturbed discrete time regenerative processes. Theory Probab. Math. Statist. 89, 153–168 (2014)
Petersson, M.: Quasi-stationary asymptotics for perturbed semi-Markov processes in discrete time. Research Report 2015:2, Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, 36 pp. (2015)
Petersson, M.: Asymptotic expansions for moment functionals of perturbed discrete time semi-Markov processes. In: Silvestrov, S., Rančić, M. (eds.) Engineering Mathematics II. Algebraic, Stochastic and Analysis Structures for Networks, Data Classification and Optimization. Springer, Berlin (2016)
Schweitzer, P.J.: Perturbation theory and finite Markov chains. J. Appl. Prob. 5, 401–413 (1968)
Seneta, E., Vere-Jones, D.: On quasi-stationary distributions in discrete-time Markov chains with a denumerable infinity of states. J. Appl. Prob. 3, 403–434 (1966)
Silvestrov, D.S., Petersson, M.: Exponential expansions for perturbed discrete time renewal equations. In: Frenkel, I., Karagrigoriou, A., Lisnianski, A., Kleyner, A. (eds.) Applied Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis: Probabilistic Models and Statistical Inference, pp. 349–362. Wiley, Chichester (2013)
Silvestrov, D., Silvestrov S.: Asymptotic expansions for stationary distributions of perturbed semi-Markov processes. Research Report 2015:9, Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, 75 pp. (2015)
Simon, H.A., Ando, A.: Aggregation of variables in dynamic systems. Econometrica 29, 111–138 (1961)
Stewart, G.W.: On the sensitivity of nearly uncoupled Markov chains. In: Stewart, W.J. (ed.) Numerical Solution of Markov Chains. Probability: Pure and Applied, vol. 8, pp. 105–119. Marcel Dekker, New York (1991)
van Doorn, E.A., Pollett, P.K.: Quasi-stationary distributions for discrete-state models. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 230, 1–14 (2013)
Vere-Jones, D.: Geometric ergodicity in denumerable Markov chains. Q. J. Math. 13, 7–28 (1962)
Yin, G., Zhang, Q.: Continuous-Time Markov Chains and Applications. A Singular Perturbation Approach. Applications of Mathematics, vol. 37. Springer, New York (1998)
Yin, G., Zhang, Q.: Discrete-time singularly perturbed Markov chains. In: Yao, D.D., Zhang, H., Zhou, X.Y. (eds.) Stochastic Modelling and Optimization, pp. 1–42. Springer, New York (2003)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this paper
Cite this paper
Petersson, M. (2016). Asymptotics for Quasi-stationary Distributions of Perturbed Discrete Time Semi-Markov Processes. In: Silvestrov, S., Rančić, M. (eds) Engineering Mathematics II. Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, vol 179. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-42105-6_9
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-42105-6_9
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-42104-9
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-42105-6
eBook Packages: Mathematics and StatisticsMathematics and Statistics (R0)