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Fostering Internationalism through Marine Science pp 123–150Cite as

Developing Unified Marine Climate Change Research

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Abstract

From the organization’s earliest deliberations, the governing council envisioned creating an ambitious core integrative science program for scientists to rally around. Such a program had to create a balance between being broad enough to capture the big questions of pressing importance, yet focused enough to be tractable

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Warren Wooster Nov. 1995 letter to William T. Burke, Prof. of Law and Marine Affairs, Univ. Washington, as found in presentation by Hal Batchelder (USA) https://www.pices.int/publications/presentations/CCCC_2006/Theme1/Batchelder.pdf.

  2. 2.

    Fisheries scientists coined the term “Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO),” for this climate oscillation that generally lasts longer than a decade. North Pacific ecosystems have oscillated between regimes that control both physical conditions and species productivity (Mantua et al. 1997).

  3. 3.

    Subarctic Gyre (WG 6; 1992–1994), co-chairs Brent Hargreaves (Canada), Takashige Sugimoto (Japan), and Dynamics of Small Pelagics in Coastal Ecosystems (WG 3; 1992–1995), co-chairs John Hunter (USA), Tokio Wada (Japan), took the lead in developing a steering committee.

  4. 4.

    PICES Annual Report (1993). Report of Fishery Science Committee.

  5. 5.

    PICES Scientific Report (1996): 4. The phases of the CCCC program were preparation (1994–1996); implementation (1996–2006); synthesis (2006–2008).

  6. 6.

    According to Alex Bychkov, the working group on Modeling of the Subarctic North Pacific Circulation (WG 7; 1993–1995), co-chairs Masahiro Endoh (Japan), Paul LeBlond (Canada). parent POC, was foundational to the much later expert group on Evaluations of Climate Change Projections (WG 20; 2005–2010), co-chairs Mike Foreman (Canada) and Yasuhiro Yamanaka (Japan).

  7. 7.

    Evaluations of Climate Change Projections (WG 20; 2005–2010) gave rise to two new groups, one on North Pacific Climate Variability and Change (WG 27; 2011–2015), co-chairs Emanuele (Manu) Di Lorenzo (USA), Mike Foreman (Canada), Shoshiro Minobe (Japan); and one on Regional Climate Modeling (WG 29; 2011–2015), co-chairs Enrique Curchitser (USA), Chan Joo Jang (Korea).

  8. 8.

    Regions include continental shelf and national waters, while basins include open ocean waters.

  9. 9.

    PICES-GLOBEC Science Plan in PICES Annual Report (1994).

  10. 10.

    Time Table. Planning and data assimilation 1995–1996; observing, process studies and modeling 1997 onwards; model integration and testing 2000 onwards. PICES Annual Report (1994).

  11. 11.

    CCCC Implementation Panel co-chairs Hal Batchelder (USA), Michio Kishi (Japan).

  12. 12.

    GLOBEC was a SCOR-IGBP-IOC initiative by 29 countries (Barange et al. 2010).

  13. 13.

    This organizational arrangement proved problematic over time for some scientists who felt it isolated the science program from the regular management structure, so the subsequent science program FUTURE was given a different reporting structure.

  14. 14.

    The five key research activities were to carry out retrospective analyses and process studies, develop models and observational systems, and create coherent data management.

  15. 15.

    Consumption of Marine Resources by Marine Birds and Mammals (WG 11; 1995–1999), co-chairs George Hunt, Jr. (USA), Hidehiro Kato (Japan). PICES Annual Report (1996).

  16. 16.

    Dynamics of Small Pelagics in Coastal Ecosystems (WG 3; 1992–1995), co-chairs John Hunter (USA), Tokio Wada (Japan).

  17. 17.

    Co-chairs BASS (1995–2004): Kerim Aydin (2003–2004, USA), Richard (Dick) Beamish (1995–1998, Canada), Andrei Krovnin (1998–2002, Russia), Gordon (Sandy) McFarlane (1998–2004, Canada), Makoto Terazaki (1995–1998, Japan) and Akihiko Yatsu (2002–2004, Japan). PICES Press 4 (1996); PICES Scientific Report 8 (1997).

  18. 18.

    Subarctic Pacific Monitoring (WG 9; 1994–1997), co-chairs Kimio Hanawa (Japan), Bruce Taft (USA), co-chairs MONITOR (1997–2004) David L. Mackas (2000–2004, Canada), Phillip Mundy (2003–2004, USA), Yasunori Sakurai (1997–2000, Japan), Sei-ichi Saitoh (2003–2004, Japan), Bruce Taft (1997–2000, USA).

  19. 19.

    A sixth task team, NEXT (NEMURO EXperimental Plan Team), chair Hal Batchelder, operated for a year to develop a strategy to maximize the utility of the NEMURO model and its elaborations.

  20. 20.

    Modeling of the Subarctic North Pacific Circulation (WG 7; 1993–1995).

  21. 21.

    SCOR Working Group 105 on “Impact of World Fisheries Harvests on the Stability and Diversity of Marine Ecosystems,” began in 1996 to complement work in ICES working group on the ecosystem effects of fishing. PICES Press 6 (1998). Chang Ik Zhang (Korea) represented PICES on SCOR WG 105.

  22. 22.

    Jeffrey Polovina was awarded the 2010 Wooster Award in part for his landmark use of path analysis in the model ECOPATH to characterize energy flow and ecological links through a coral reef food web.

  23. 23.

    Published in a special issue of Progress in Oceanography 43 (2–4).

  24. 24.

    The co-chairs of the Advisory Panel on Iron Fertilization Experiment (IFEP 1998–2007) were Shigenobu Takeda (Japan) and Chi Shing (C.S.) Wong (Canada). In 1985 Wong pioneered the use of cargo ships as volunteer observing ships (VOS) to collect repeated measures of oceanic CO2 partial pressure to calculate global carbon budgets, and encouraged the National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan, (the 2014 POMA award winner), to continue such observations.

  25. 25.

    PICES Press 11 (2003). The experiments in the NW Pacific were called SEEDS, and in the NE Pacific, SERIES.

  26. 26.

    Iron Supply and its Impact on Biogeochemistry and Ecosystems in the North Pacific Ocean (WG 22; 2007–2010), parent BIO, co-chairs Fei Chai (USA), Shigenobu Takeda (Japan).

  27. 27.

    A joint C-SOLAS-PICES-IFEP session on “Response of the upper ocean to meso-scale iron enrichment,” was convened in 2004 during the ASLO-TOS 2004 Ocean Research Conference held in Honolulu, Hawaii.

  28. 28.

    REX (1996–2004) co-chairs: Anne B. Hollowed (1996–1998, USA), Tokimasa Kobayashi (1999–2001, Japan), William T. Peterson (1998–2004, USA), Vladimir Radchenko (1996–1998, Russia), Tokio Wada (1996–1999, Japan), Yoshiro Watanabe (2001–2004, Japan).

  29. 29.

    See PICES Annual Report (1998): pp. 129–138 for the 1997 workshop.

  30. 30.

    Workshop (1997) on “Development of cooperative research in coastal regions of the North Pacific.”

  31. 31.

    PICES Scientific Report 9 (1998).

  32. 32.

    REX workshops: Fairbanks, USA 1998; Vladivostok, Russia 1999; Hakodate, Japan 2000; Victoria, Canada 2001.

  33. 33.

    The workshops produced a series of PICES Scientific Reports (Nos. 11, 15, 17, 20, 27). The first MODEL-REX workshop was co-sponsored by the Nakajima Foundation, in Nemuro and Yokohama, Japan, and later sponsorship came from the Asian Pacific Network (APN). See PICES Scientific Report 20 (2002) for the first joint MODEL-REX inter-sessional workshop. The second MODEL-REX workshop was published in PICES Scientific Report 27 (2004).

  34. 34.

    The results of their workshops were reported in several PICES Scientific Reports.

  35. 35.

    “Embed the NEMURO and NEMURO.FISH models into a 3-D circulation model,” (2003, Yokohama, Japan).

  36. 36.

    MODEL (1995–2009) co-chairs Shin-ichi Ito (2002–2006, Japan), Michio Kishi (1998–2001, Japan), Bernard Megrey (1999–2002, USA), Ian Perry (1995–1998, Canada), Yasunori Sakurai (1998–2000, Japan), Bruce A. Taft (1998–2000, USA), Thomas Wainwright (2004–2009, USA), Daniel Ware (1998–1999, Canada), Hao Wei (2007–2009, China), Cisco Werner (2001–2005, USA), Sinjae Yoo (1995–1998, Korea).

  37. 37.

    For application of the model to the CCCC program, see (Batchelder and Kashiwai 2007). Final report of the workshop for lower trophic level ecosystem model. (Megrey et al. 2000) PICES Scientific Report 15 (2000).

  38. 38.

    The task teams were MODEL 1995–2009; BASS 1995–2004; REX 1996–2004; NEXT 2002–2003; MONITOR 1997–2004 and CFAME 2004–2009.

  39. 39.

    NEMURO EXperimental Plan Team (NEXT).

  40. 40.

    The modeling workshops garnered support from APN (Asia Pacific Network), GLOBEC, the Heiwa-Nakajima Foundation of Japan, Japan International Science and Technology Exchange Center, City of Nemuro (Japan), and the Fisheries Research Agency (FRA) of Japan.

  41. 41.

    For instance, the Max Planck Institute began to use it. PICES Scientific Report 20 (2002).

  42. 42.

    NEXT (2002–2003); chair Hal Batchelder (USA).

  43. 43.

    CCCC Endnote 4, “NEXT—Nemuro Experimental Planning Team Strategy for accomplishing PICES CCCC Program Synthesis.” PICES Annual Report (2003).

  44. 44.

    Michio Kishi successfully applied to the Heiwa-Nakajima Foundation of Japan and the city of Nemuro to help fund the subsequent workshop in Nemuro, Japan in 2002. PICES Scientific Report 20 (2002): 77.

  45. 45.

    NEMURO.FISH (NEMURO For Including Saury and Herring; NEMURO.SAN (NEMURO Sardine and ANchovy).

  46. 46.

    CFAME (2004–2009), co-chairs Kerim Aydin (2004–2009, USA), Young-Shil Kang (2004–2009, Korea), Akihiko Yatsu (2004–2009, Japan). PICES Annual Report (2007) CFAME report.

  47. 47.

    The three distinct ecoregions were the California Current System with an upwelling and a boundary current, the Kuroshio/Oyashio system with boundary currents, and the Yellow Sea/East China Sea region with large amounts of freshwater input.

  48. 48.

    POC-CCCC workshop on “Climate scenarios for ecosystem modeling,” at PICES 16 (2007) in Victoria, Canada. Evaluations of Climate Change Projections (WG 20; 2005–2010), co-chairs Mike Foreman (Canada), Yasuhiro Yamanaka (Japan).

  49. 49.

    von Neumann, J. (1947), “The Mathematician,” in (Von Neumann 1995), p. 626.

  50. 50.

    During a 2007 meeting on “Climate variability and ecosystem impacts on the North Pacific: A basin-scale synthesis.”.

  51. 51.

    Brenda Norcross, as referenced in Hal Batchelder and Suam Kim’s assessment “Big-picture synthesis requires understanding the small and ‘in-between’ stuff—A summary of the CCCC Synthesis Symposium.” PICES Press 14 (2006).

  52. 52.

    Plagányi (2007) reviews various models like ECOSIM and NEMURO for an ecosystem approach to fisheries.

  53. 53.

    Working groups included Modeling of the Subarctic North Pacific Circulation (WG 7; 1993–1995); Circulation and Ventilation in the Japan/East Sea (WG 10; 1995–1999); Joint PICES-ICES Working Group on Forecasting Climate Change Impacts on Fish and Shellfish (WG 25; 2008–2011); and Regional Climate Modeling (WG 29; 2011–2015).

  54. 54.

    Enrique Curchitser and George Hunt responses to Alex Bychkov 2015 email questionnaire.

  55. 55.

    Tsutomu Ikeda Report on the ICES Zooplankton Ecology Working Group-PICES meeting. PICES Press 8 (2000).

  56. 56.

    PICES Press 11 (2003). Comparative salmon mortality with NPAFC, NASCO, and IBSFC; on transitional areas with two Mexican research centers; physical processes in western Pacific ecosystems with CREAMS; a North Pacific process study with JGOFS; and cooperation with the GLOBEC 2nd Open Science Meeting, all in 2002.

  57. 57.

    The Study Group on Future Integrative Scientific Program(s) (SG-FISP; 2005–2009), parent GC, chair John Stein (USA).

  58. 58.

    The first NPESR was carried out at the same time as the CCCC program, and became a vital bridge for the subsequent integrated science plan, FUTURE.

  59. 59.

    CLIVAR (1995) is part of WCRP.

  60. 60.

    PICES Annual Report (2004). OP Endnote 10, PICES “Year-in-Review” by Ian Perry, chair SB.

  61. 61.

    2008 Symposium conveners: John Church (IOC); William (Bill) Peterson (PICES); Luis Valdés (ICES). Additional co-sponsors were GLOBEC, SCOR and WCRP, with additional funding from many other sources.

  62. 62.

    “A New Science Program for PICES: FUTURE—Forecasting and Understanding Trends, Uncertainty and Responses of North Pacific Marine Ecosystems. Vision: To understand and forecast responses of North Pacific marine ecosystems to climate change and human activities at basin and regional scales, and to broadly communicate this scientific information to members, governments, resource managers, stakeholders and the public.” February 2008.

  63. 63.

    They constituted a FUTURE science plan writing team (SP-WT; 2007–2008).

  64. 64.

    But note that the Section on Climate Change Effects on Marine Ecosystems (S-CCME) has been quite successful in linking research to society through its work on the effects of climate change on commercially harvested marine fish populations.

  65. 65.

    Joint PICES-IMBER Theme Session at the IMBER 2014 Open Science Conference, Norway.

  66. 66.

    FUTURE Advisory Panel on Climate, Oceanographic Variability and Ecosystems (AP-COVE 2009–2014), parent SB, chair Hiroaki Saito (Japan).

  67. 67.

    Section on Carbon and Climate (CC-S; 2005–2016); Evaluation of Climate Change Projections (WG 20; 2005–2010); Iron Supply and its Impact on Biogeochemistry and Ecosystems in the North Pacific Ocean (WG 22; 2007–2010); Comparative Ecology of Krill in Continental Shelf and Oceanic Waters around the Pacific Rim (WG 23; 2007–2011).

  68. 68.

    FUTURE Advisory Panel on Anthropogenic Influences on Coastal Ecosystems (AP-AICE 2009–2014), past chairs Steven Bograd (2013–2014 USA); Tom Therriault (2009–2013).

  69. 69.

    Section on ecology of harmful algal blooms in the North Pacific (HAB-S); Non-indigenous Aquatic Species (WG 21; 2005–2013); Environmental Interactions of Marine Aquaculture (WG 24; 2008–2012).

  70. 70.

    FUTURE Advisory Panel on Status, Outlooks, Forecasts, and Engagement (SOFE), past chairs Robin Brown (2009–2012, Canada), Phillip Mundy (2012–2014, USA).

  71. 71.

    Forecasting Climate Change Impacts on Fish and Shellfish (WG-FCCIFS; 2009–2011), parents FIS and POC, co-chairs Manuel Barange (UK), Anne Hollowed (USA), Suam Kim (Korea), Harald Loeng (Norway). Study Group on Human Dimensions of Environmental Change (SG-HD 2009–2011), chair Mitsutaku Makino (Japan).

  72. 72.

    Section on Climate Change Effects on Marine Ecosystems (S-CCME 2011–2020). Joint expert group with ICES Strategic Initiative on Climate Change Effects on Marine Ecosystems (SICCME) (Kim et al. 2014).

  73. 73.

    ICES-PICES Strategic Initiative on Climate Change Impacts on Marine Systems. Chairs Anne Hollowed (USA, PICES), Shin-ichi Ito (Japan, PICES), Myron Peck (Germany, ICES), John Pinnegar (UK, ICES).

  74. 74.

    International symposium on “Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries: Forecasting Impacts, Assessing Ecosystem Responses, and Evaluating Management Strategies,” Sendai, Japan. Symposium conveners Manuel Barange (GLOBEC International), Anne Hollowed (USA), Shin-ichi Ito (Japan), Suam Kim (Korea), Harald Loeng (Norway), aided by an extensive steering committee.

  75. 75.

    2011 ESSAS Open Science Meeting in Seattle, WA, USA.

  76. 76.

    Section on Human Dimensions of Marine Systems (S-HD 2011–2020), co-chairs Keith Criddle (USA), Mitsutaku Makino (Japan).

  77. 77.

    See PICES Scientific Report 39 (2011).

  78. 78.

    Study Group on Radionuclide Science in the North Pacific Ocean (SG-RS; 2013), chair Yusheng Zhang (China). Assessment of Marine Environmental Quality of Radiation around the North Pacific (WG 30; (2013–2016). Parent MEQ, co-chairs Kathryn Higley (USA), Yusheng Zhang (China).

  79. 79.

    The participants came from Canada, China, Japan, Korea and the United States. PICES Press 21 (2013).

  80. 80.

    2014 FUTURE Open Science Meeting, Hawaii, USA 2014.

  81. 81.

    The FUTURE Evaluation Team included Manuel Barange, Julie Hall, Shin-Ichi Ito, Jackie King, Bill Peterson, Jake Rice (panel Chair).

  82. 82.

    The ocean-climate forecasting progressed from CCCC into North Pacific Climate Variability and Change (WG 27; 2011–2015), co-chairs Manu Di Lorenzo (USA), Mike Foreman (Canada), Shoshiro Minobe (Japan). Regional Climate Modeling (WG 29; 2011–2015). Parents POC, BIO, co-chairs Enrique Curchitser (USA), Chan Joo Jang (Korea).

  83. 83.

    Study Group on Communication (SG-COM 2007–2009). Parent GC, chair David Fluharty (USA).

  84. 84.

    Study Group on Socio-Ecological-Environmental Systems (SG-SEES 2014–2015). Parent SB, chair Manu Di Lorenzo (USA).

  85. 85.

    Joint NPAFC-PICES Study Group on Scientific Cooperation in the North Pacific Ocean (SG-SC-NP; 2013–2014); Joint PICES-NOWPAP Study Group on Scientific Cooperation in the North Pacific Ocean (SG-SCOOP; 2014–2015).

  86. 86.

    Joint PICES-ICES Working Group on Climate Change and Biologically-driven Ocean Carbon Sequestration (WG 33; 2015–2018); Joint PICES-ISC Working Group on Ocean Conditions and the Distribution and Productivity of Highly Migratory Fish (WG 34; 2015–2018), chair Gerard DiNardo (ISC, USA).

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    Sara Tjossem

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Tjossem, S. (2017). Developing Unified Marine Climate Change Research. In: Fostering Internationalism through Marine Science. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-41435-5_4

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