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Outside the Marginals: Constituency and Regional Polling at the 2015 General Elections

  • Tom MludzinskiEmail author
  • Katharine Peacock
Chapter
  • 720 Downloads

Abstract

Tom Mludzinski and Katharine Peacock examine the polls that were conducted below the national level in the 2015 elections. The great increase in the number of constituency polls published was one of the most striking features of opinion polling in 2015, and these were not confined to marginal seats, as has usually been the case in the past. Many were funded by Lord Ashcroft, or were private polls for the parties that were released to the media, and many were published well before the final few weeks of the formal campaign. This chapter discusses the methodology and presents some of the results, and shows how such polling can increase both politicians’ and public understanding of what is happening during an election.

Keywords

General Election Election Campaign National Poll Question Wording European Election 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

References

  1. Ashcroft, M. A. (2015a). General Election 2015: Constituency polling report—Key marginal constituencies. Retrieved 26 February 2016, from http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Key-marginal-constituencies-1-May-2015.pdf
  2. Ashcroft, M. A.. (2015b). Mixed fortunes in my final round of marginals. Retrieved 26 February 2016, from http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/mixed-fortunes-in-my-final-round-of-marginals/
  3. Ashcroft, M. A. (2015c). The Liberal Democrat battleground. Retrieved 26 February 2016, from http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/the-liberal-democrat-battleground/
  4. BBC News. (2015). Clegg: South West wipe-out predictions ‘baloney.’ BBC News, 16 April. Retrieved 26 February 2016, from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32334208
  5. Mortimore, R., Cleary, H., & Mludzinski, T. (2011). The campaign as experienced by the voters in the battleground seats. In D. Wring, R. Mortimore, & S. Atkinson (Eds.), Political communication in Britain: The leader debates, the campaign and the media in the 2010 general election. Palgrave Macmillan: Basingstoke.Google Scholar
  6. Payne, S. (2015). Exclusive: Ukip slams ‘terrible’ ComRes poll of ten ‘target seats’. Coffee House, 22 April. Retrieved 26 February 2016, from http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2015/04/exclusive-ukip-slams-terrible-comres-poll-of-ten-target-seats/
  7. Watson, T. (2015). Tweet, 1 April. Retrieved 26 February 2016, from https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/583258238965166080

Copyright information

© The Author(s) 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.ComResLondonUK
  2. 2.Brunswick Group/ComResLondonUK

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