Abstract
Scenarios illustrate probable, plausible, and possible future developments and serve as a framework for strategic planning and decision making. They try to draw holistic images considering various aspects of today’s world. Still, their development is complex and time-consuming. For example, at the beginning of the scenario development process, the literature needs to be screened in order to capture the state of the art and get an overview on influential aspects for the scenario stories. Here, this work concentrates on and proposes two alternative text mining approaches to improve this initial phase of scenario preparation. Text mining automatically processes texts and aggregates their content (scientific publications and reports in this case). This enables to summarize the topic and identify driving aspects. In order to draw a comparison, two different approaches are applied on two different cases. As the results show, the delimitation and structuring of the scenario field are supported and input for discussing the influences is delivered.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
For further details on the project please visit www.ettis-project.eu.
References
Acatech. (2012). Technikzukünfte: Vorausdenken - Erstellen - Bewerten. Springer Vieweg; Acatech, [S.l.].
Bird, S., Klein, E., & Loper, E. (2009). Natural language processing with python (1st ed.). Beijing, Cambridge [Mass.]: O’Reilly.
Blei, D. M., Ng, A. Y., & Jordan, M. I. (2003). Latent dirichlet allocation. The Journal of machine Learning research, 3, 993–1022.
Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K., Ekvall, T., & Finnveden, G. (2006). Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user’s guide. Futures, 38(7), 723–739.
Bradfield, R., Wright, G., Burt, G., Cairns, G., & van der Heijden, K. (2005). The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning. Futures, 37(8), 795–812.
Cameron, D., Finlayson, A., & Wotzko, R. (2011). Visualising social computing output: Mapping student blogs and tweets. In B. White, I. King, & P. Tsang (Eds.), Social media tools and platforms in learning environments (pp. 337–350). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer.
Cuhls, K. (2003). From forecasting to foresight processes—New participative foresight activities in Germany. J. Forecast., 22(2–3), 93–111.
Dönitz, E. (2009). Effizientere Szenariotechnik durch teilautomatische Generierung von Konsistenzmatrizen: Empirie, Konzeption, Fuzzy- und Neuro-Fuzzy-Ansätze. Wiesbaden: Gabler Verlag/GWV Fachverlage GmbH.
Dönitz, E., Shala, E., Leimbach, T., Bierwisch, A., Grigoleitt, S., & Klerx, J. (2013) D4.4 catalogue of threat scenarios: ETTIS—European security trends and threats in society.
Feldman, R., & Sanger, J. (2007) The text mining handbook: Advanced approaches in analyzing unstructured data. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Fink, A., Schlake, O., & Siebe, A. (2001). Erfolg durch Szenario-Management: Prinzip und Werkzeuge der strategischen Vorausschau. Frankfurt/Main, New York: Campus-Verlag.
Glenn, G. C. (2009) The futures group international scenarios. In J. C. Glenn & T. J. Gordon (Eds), Futures research methodology (pp. 1–25), Version 3.0. Millennium Project, Washington, DC.
Godet, M., & Durance, P. (2011). Strategische Vorausschau: Für Unternehmen und Regionen. Paris: Dunod.
Kuosa, T. (2012). The Evolution of strategic foresight: Navigating public policy making. Farnham: Ashgate Publishing Ltd.
Leximancer. (2011). Leximancer manual: Version 4.
Manning, C. D., Raghavan, P., & Schütze, H. (2009). An introduction to information retrieval. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Martino, J. P. (2003). A review of selected recent advances in technological forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 70(8), 719–733.
Mietzner, D., & Reger, G. (2005). Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight. IJTIP, 1(2), 220–239.
Mietzner, D. (2009). Strategische Vorausschau und Szenarioanalysen: Methodenevaluation und neue Ansätze (1st ed.). Wiesbaden: Gabler.
Miner, G. (2012). Practical text mining and statistical analysis for non-structured text data applications (1st ed.). Waltham, MA: Academic Press.
O’Brien, F. A., & Meadows, M. (2013). Scenario orientation and use to support strategy development. Scenario Method: Current Developments in Theory and Practice, 80(4), 643–656.
Raford, N. (2014). Online foresight platforms: Evidence for their impact on scenario planning & strategic foresight. Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
Ramakrishnan, C., Patnia, A., Hovy, E., & Burns, G. A. (2012). Layout-aware text extraction from full-text PDF of scientific articles. Source Code for Biology and Medicine, 7(1), 7.
Řehůřek, R, Sojka, P. (2010). Software framework for topic modelling with large corpora. In Proceedings of LREC 2010 Workshop 2010 (pp. 46–50).
Reibnitz, U. V. (1991). Szenario-Technik: Instrumente für die unternehmerische und persönliche Erfolgsplanung. Wiesbaden: Gabler.
Ringland, G. (2010). The role of scenarios in strategic foresight. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(9), 1493–1498.
Salton, G., Fox, E. A., & Wu, H. (1983). Extended Boolean information retrieval. Communications of the ACM, 26(11), 1022–1036.
Salton, G. (1988). Automatic text processing: The transformation, analysis, and retrieval of information by computer. Reading, Mass: Addison-Wesley.
Smith, A. E., & Humphreys, M. S. (2006). Evaluation of unsupervised semantic mapping of natural language with Leximancer concept mapping. Behavior Research Methods, 38(2), 262–279.
Stockwell, P., Colomb, R. M., Smith, A. E., & Wiles, J. (2009). Use of an automatic content analysis tool: A technique for seeing both local and global scope. International Journal of Human-Computer Studies, 67(5), 424–436.
van der Heijden, K. (2005). Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation (2nd ed.). Chichester, England, Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
van Notten, P. W. F., Rotmans, J., van Asselt, M. B. A., & Rothman, D. S. (2003). An updated scenario typology. Futures, 35(5), 423–443.
Weimer-Jehle, W. (2009). Szenarienentwicklung mit der Cross-Impact-Bilanzanalyse. In: J. Gausemeier (Ed.), Vorausschau und Technologieplanung: 5. Symposium für Vorausschau und Technologieplanung (pp. 435–454). Heinz-Nixdorf-Institut, 19. und 20. November 2009 in der Berlin-Brandenburgischen Akademie der Wissenschaften. HNI, Paderborn.
Wilson, I. (2000). From scenario thinking to strategic action. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65(1), 23–29.
Yarowsky, D. (1995) Unsupervised word sense disambiguation rivaling supervised methods. In Proceedings of the 33rd Annual Meeting on Association for Computational Linguistics (pp. 189–196).
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank Ewa Dönitz (Fraunhofer ISI) for her permission to work with the data of the ETTIS Scenarios. Furthermore, we want to thank a number of friends and colleagues for their comments on our work and their encouragement.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Kayser, V., Shala, E. (2016). Generating Futures from Text—Scenario Development Using Text Mining. In: Daim, T., Chiavetta, D., Porter, A., Saritas, O. (eds) Anticipating Future Innovation Pathways Through Large Data Analysis. Innovation, Technology, and Knowledge Management. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-39056-7_13
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-39056-7_13
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-39054-3
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-39056-7
eBook Packages: Business and ManagementBusiness and Management (R0)