Studying the Synoptic Wildfire Climatology in Greece. Implications to Wildfire Management

Abstract

In this work, the wildfire synoptic climatology in Greece is studied through the COST-733 classification schemes. Specifically, wildfires are linked to synoptic circulations patterns, in an attempt to reveal the most fire-prone conditions in the area. The analysis reveals that the majority of wildfires are dominated by a combination of high atmospheric pressure systems located N to NW of Greece, coupled with lower pressures located over the Eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea; an atmospheric pressure pattern known to favor the development of the local Etesian winds. All 8 classification schemes used confirm that the most fire-prone conditions in the area are characterized by anomalously low 500 hPa geopotential heights and negative total water column anomalies, while the atmospheric pressure is reported to be anomalously high. Among the different classification schemes used, the 2 Principal Component Analysis, as well as the Leader Algorithm classification were found to be the best options, due to their ability to isolate the majority of fire events in a small number of classes with increased frequency of occurrence. It is expected that these findings, together with medium-range to seasonal climate forecasts, could be used by wildfire managers and benefit the wildfire prediction accuracy.