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Probabilistic Framework for Modelling the Evolution of Geomorphic Features in 10,000-Year Time Scale: The Eurajoki River Case

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Geospatial Data in a Changing World

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography ((LNGC))

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Abstract

In this paper the long-term evolution of the catchment area of Eurajoki River, situated in Western Finland, is studied. The modelling area, nearly 1000 km2 in size, is at present mostly covered by sea. Probabilistic digital elevation model and land uplift model form the basis for the future catchment area modelling. A land uplift model is required due to the ongoing post-glacial rebound especially in the western parts of Finland. The maximum rate of land uplift in Finland is 1 cm per year while in the modelling area the land uplift rate is about 6 mm per year. The digital elevation model and land uplift model have been calculated using Monte Carlo simulation where the uncertainties in the source data have been taken into account. The probabilistic nature of these models enables also the river catchment area and river network analyses probabilistically. The analyses are done for the next 10,000 years in 1000-year intervals and 100 realizations are estimated for each time point. The results show that the catchment area expands towards the west as the land rises. An alternative river branch flowing northwards from the main course will form with a significant probability. Also, a delta area with multiple river branches is expected to form at about 7000 years after present.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Tampere University of Technology, Pori, Finland

    Jari Pohjola, Jari Turunen & Tarmo Lipping

  2. Environmental Research and Assessment EnviroCase, Ltd., Pori, Finland

    Ari T. K. Ikonen

Authors
  1. Jari Pohjola
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  2. Jari Turunen
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  3. Tarmo Lipping
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  4. Ari T. K. Ikonen
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jari Pohjola .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. NLS, Finnish Geospatial Research Institute, Masala, Finland

    Tapani Sarjakoski

  2. Department of Information Systems, Universidade do Minho, Guimaraes, Portugal

    Maribel Yasmina Santos

  3. Finnish Geospatial Research Institute, National Land Survey of Finland, Helsinki, Finland

    L. Tiina Sarjakoski

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Pohjola, J., Turunen, J., Lipping, T., Ikonen, A.T.K. (2016). Probabilistic Framework for Modelling the Evolution of Geomorphic Features in 10,000-Year Time Scale: The Eurajoki River Case. In: Sarjakoski, T., Santos, M., Sarjakoski, L. (eds) Geospatial Data in a Changing World. Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-33783-8_21

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