Abstract
The modeling team compared export market forecasts for the U.S. and Latin America, shown in Figure 6.1. Exports to the U.S. were much more consistent, stable and predictable. The trend accounted for 93% of the variation in U.S. exports, and the margin of error in forecasts was small, .24 ML. However, forecast growth was low, 4 to 5% per year. Exports to Latin America differed. While the trend accounted for 92% of the variation in Latin American exports, the margin of error was larger, .51ML. Yet future growth was higher, 5 to 9% per year.
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© 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
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Fraser, C. (2016). Consolidating Multiple Naïve Forecasts with Monte Carlo. In: Business Statistics for Competitive Advantage with Excel 2016 . Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-32185-1_6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-32185-1_6
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