Abstract
The stochastic method has been and is still one of the most versatile tools for simulating earthquake ground motions. This method has been used in the past for deriving ground motion models or for evaluating seismic hazard. In this study, an attempt is made to evaluate the seismic hazard at INCERC site in Bucharest from Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquake using the stochastic method of simulating ground motions applied in conjunction with a stochastic catalogue. The simulated seismic catalogue which contains only intermediate-depth earthquakes originating in the Vrancea subcrustal seismic source with magnitudes M W ≥ 5.5, has a time length of 2500 years and it is based on the seismicity parameters derived from the ROMPLUS catalogue of the National Institute of Earth Physics. For each individual earthquake, the ground motion levels at INCERC station are assessed using stochastic finite-fault simulations. Subsequently, the seismic hazard curves for the INCERC site are obtained and compared with the ones computed through classical Cornell-McGuire probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). In addition, the influence of the earthquake magnitude and source-to-site distance on the frequency contents of the simulated ground motions is investigated. Finally, the site-dependent displacement response spectrum constructed based on the simulated ground motions puts into evidence large displacement demands for long period structures.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Assatourians K, Atkinson GM (2013) EqHaz: an open-source probabilistic seismic-hazard code based on the Monte Carlo simulation approach. Seismol Res Lett 84:516–524
Beresnev IA, Atkinson GM (1998) FINSIM—a FORTRAN program for simulating stochastic acceleration time histories from finite faults. Seismol Res Lett 69:27–32
Boore DM (2003) Simulation of ground motions using the stochastic method. Pure appl Geophys 160:635–676
Boore DM (2005) SMSIM—Fortran programs for simulating ground motions from earthquakes: version 2.3—a revision of OFR 96-80-A. U.S. Geological Survey report OFR 00-509
Contantinescu L, Enescu D (1985) The Vrancea earthquakes from scientific and technologic point of view (in Romanian). Ed Academiei, Bucharest, Romania
Douglas J, Ulrich T, Bertil D, Rey J (2014) Comparisons of the ranges of uncertainty captured in different seismic-hazard studies. Seismol Res Lett 85:977–985
EN 1998–1:2004 (2004) Eurocode 8: design of structures for earthquake resistance, Part 1: general rules, seismic actions and rules for buildings. CEN, Bruxelles, Belgia
Ganas A, Grecu B, Batsi E, Radulian M (2010) Vrancea slab earthquakes triggered by static stress transfer. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 10:2565–2577
Iervolino I (2013) Probabilities and fallacies: why hazard maps cannot be validated by individual earthquakes. Earthquake Spectra 29:1125–1136
McGuire R (2004) Seismic hazard and risk analysis. Earthquake Engineering Research Institute MNO-10
Motazedian D, Atkinson GM (2005) Stochastic finite-fault modeling based on a dynamic corner frequency. Bull Seismol Soc Am 95:995–1010
Musson RMW (2000) The use of Monte Carlo simulations for seismic hazard assessment in the U.K. Ann Geofis 43:1–9
Oth A, Parolai S, Bindi D, Wenzel F (2009) Source spectra and site response from S waves of intermediate-depth Vrancea, Romania, earthquakes. Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:235–254
P100-1/2013 (2013) Code for seismic design—Part I—design prescriptions for buildings. Ministry of Regional Development and Public Administration, Bucharest, Romania
Pavel F, Vacareanu R (2015) Kappa and regional attenuation for Vrancea (Romania) earthquakes. J Seismolog 19:791–799
Pavel F, Vacareanu R, Ionescu C, Iancovici M, Sercaianu M (2014) Investigation of the variability of strong ground motions from Vrancea earthquakes. Nat Hazards 74:1707–1728
Radulian M, Mandrescu N, Panza GF, Popescu E, Utale A (2000) Characterization of seismogenic zones of Romania. Pure Appl Geophys 157:57–77
Radulian M, Popa M, Carbunar OF, Rogozea M (2008) Seismicity patterns in Vrancea and predictive features. Acta Geodaet Geophys Hung 43:163–173
Tasan H, Beauval C, Helmstetter A, Sandikkaya A, Guéguen P (2014) Testing probabilistic seismic hazard estimates against accelerometric data in two countries: France and Turkey. Geophys J Int 198:1554–1571
Thompson EM, Baise LG, Kayen RE, Guzina BB (2009) Impediments to predicting site response: seismic property estimation and modeling simplifications. Bull Seismol Soc Am 99(5):2927–2949
Vacareanu R, Pavel F, Aldea A, Arion C, Neagu C (2015) Elements of seismic hazard assessment (in Romanian). Conspress, Bucharest, Romania
Vacareanu R, Aldea A, Lungu D, Pavel F, Neagu C, Arion C, Demetriu S, Iancovici M (2016). Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Romania. In: D’Amico S (eds) Earthquakes and their impact on society. Springer Natural Hazards Book Series, pp 137–169. ISBN: 978-3-319-21752-9 (Print) 978-3-319-21753-6 (Online). 10.1007/978-3-319-21753-6
Weatherhill G, Burton PW (2010) An alternative approach to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the Aegean region using Monte Carlo simulation. Tectonophysics 492:253–278
Wells DL, Coppersmith KJ (1994) New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement. Bull Seismol Soc Am 84:974–1002
Wenzel F, Achauer U, Enescu D, Kissling E, Russo R, Mocanu V, Musacchio G (1998) Detailed look at final stage of plate break-off is target of study in Romania. EOS Trans AGU 79:589–600
Wenzel F, Sperner B, Lorenz F, Mocanu V (2002) Geodynamics, tomographic images and seismicity of the Vrancea region (SE-Carpathians, Romania). EGU Stephan Mueller Special Publication Series 3:95–104
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNCS–UEFISCDI, project number PN-II-RU-TE-2014-4-0697. We thank John Douglas for his very constructive comments on an earlier version of this manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this paper
Cite this paper
Pavel, F., Ciuiu, D., Vacareanu, R. (2016). Site Dependent Seismic Hazard Assessment for Bucharest Based on Stochastic Simulations. In: Vacareanu, R., Ionescu, C. (eds) The 1940 Vrancea Earthquake. Issues, Insights and Lessons Learnt. Springer Natural Hazards. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-29844-3_15
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-29844-3_15
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-29843-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-29844-3
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)