Abstract
The tornado risk assessment methodology currently used by both private and public agencies utilizes empirically derived loss models that rely on historical claims data for predicting future effects of tornadoes. The accuracy of these empirical models is dependent on many factors, including the quality and quantity of available historical data, accuracy of the tornado intensity models, and the universality of applying those empirical models from one region to another. A more rigorous approach may be the development of engineering-based damage assessment models, made applicable to construction in any region and to any tornado that varies in size and strength. This chapter presents a framework for an engineering-based tornado damage assessment (ETDA) for low-rise buildings. The model predicts damage on the most vulnerable sector of the built environment, nonengineered residential buildings. The model components include a translating tornado vortex model, a tornado-induced wind load calculation approach, a probabilistic wind-borne debris impact model, and a time-variant model for internal pressure changes within the structure. The time evolution of structural damage to a building is determined using successive time steps of component level wind loading vs. structural resistance as the tornado translates past the building. The output of this model is a percentage damage index for each component and the overall building damage ratio. The ETDA model is illustrated using four houses damaged in the 2011 Joplin, MO, tornado. Predicted damage using the ETDA model is in good agreement (within 15 %) of post-tornado damage observations reported by the third author.
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Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under grant no. 1150975, NSF Graduate Research Fellowship under grant no. GMO2432, and a University of Florida Alumni Fellowship. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the National Science Foundation. In addition, the authors would like to acknowledge Juan A. Balderrama from the Department of Civil and Coastal Engineering at the University of Florida for his assistance in developing the model.
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Peng, X., Roueche, D.B., Prevatt, D.O., Gurley, K.R. (2016). An Engineering-Based Approach to Predict Tornado-Induced Damage. In: Gardoni, P., LaFave, J. (eds) Multi-hazard Approaches to Civil Infrastructure Engineering. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-29713-2_15
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-29713-2_15
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