Abstract
One of the ultimate goals of shows and seal analysis is construction of migration and trap models that integrate with petroleum systems models to predict the migration and entrapment of hydrocarbons through time in three dimensions. Because migration takes place at a molecular scale, it is impossible to fully model migration correctly. However, simulations on the major carrier beds and seals can be done which provide useful predictive models, even if the scale is fairly crudely generalized.
As our ability to visualize depositional systems with seismic and other tools becomes more sophisticated, so will the migration simulations. While recognizing the limitations on any model, it is still important to generate scenarios that honor the shows data. Multiple combinations of facies, seal and hydrodynamic flow maps may produce the similar results. Risk maps, however, can be built which combine the best results into risk index maps which can then be used to determine the most likely areas of hydrocarbon accumulations, despite which model is used.
This short chapter provides an overview of both the potential and ways to address the pitfalls in migration modelling.
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Dolson, J. (2016). Building and Testing Migration Models. In: Understanding Oil and Gas Shows and Seals in the Search for Hydrocarbons. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-29710-1_9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-29710-1_9
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