Dynamics of Commodity Price Fluctuations in Japan
Deflation is a most important economic problem having been faced by Japan, and also developed countries in Europe, under zero interest rate. How individual prices influence each other, namely the dynamics of a large number of commodity prices and fluctuations plays a crucial role there. By using hundreds of individual commodities and their prices that comprise the import price, corporate goods price and consumer price indices, we show that price fluctuations have frequencies and synchronizations specific to space and time. Space means industrial sectors for the commodities and how they are located in the supplier-customer network. Temporal structure includes background movement due to deflation, inflation and exogenous shocks such as VAT (consumption tax) rate changes, the Lehman shock and so forth, but also endogenous shocks or mutual influences among the commodities.
KeywordsInterest Rate Monetary Policy Price Index Price Change Money Supply
We would like to thank anonymous referees for improving the paper. We are also grateful to Y. Ikeda, W. Souma, T. Watanabe and Y. Yajima for comments, and also K. Itoh and N. Shinozaki (both at NHK—Japan Broadcasting Corporation) for partial help in classification of the CPI data. We thank participants of seminars at the Bank of Japan, the University of Tokyo, and the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry for comments.
This work is partially supported by Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (KAKENHI) Grant Numbers 24243027 and 25282094 by JSPS, and also in part by the Kyoto University Supporting Program for Interaction-based Initiative Team Studies: SPIRITS, as part of the Program for Promoting the Enhancement of Research Universities, MEXT, Japan.
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