The Art of Anticipatory Decision Making
This paper presents the recent advances of the theory of anticipatory networks and its applications in future-oriented decision-making. Anticipatory networks generalize earlier models of consequence anticipation in multicriteria decision problem solving. This theory is based on the assumption that the decision maker takes into account the anticipated outcomes of future decision problems linked in a prescribed manner by the causal relations with the present problem. Thus arises a multigraph of decision problems linked causally (the first relation) and representing one or more additional anticipation relations. Such multigraphs will be termed anticipatory networks. We will also present the notion of a superanticipatory system, which is an anticipatory system that contains a future model of at least one anticipatory system besides itself. It will be shown that non-trivial anticipatory networks are superanticipatory systems. Finally, we will discuss several real-life applications of anticipatory networks, including an application to establish efficient collaboration of human and robot teams.
KeywordsAnticipatory networks Superanticipatory systems Multicriteria decision making Anticipatory collaboration Preference modelling
The author is grateful for the support of the research project No. WND-POIG.01.01.01-00-021/09:“Scenarios and development trends of selected information society technologies until 2025” funded by the ERDF within the Innovative Economy Operational Programme, 2006–2013.
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