Prediction Methods for Blood Glucose Concentration

Part of the series Lecture Notes in Bioengineering pp 211-225


Uncertainties and Modeling Errors of Type 1 Diabetes Models

  • Levente KovácsAffiliated withPhysiological Controls Group, Applied Informatics Institute, John von Neumann Faculty of Informatics, Obuda University Email author 
  • , Péter SzalayAffiliated withDepartment of Control Engineering and Information Technology, Budapest University of Technology and Economics

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Modeling and control are tightly connected if we want to guarantee safety and reliability. These are minimum requirements in the medical field. The more sophisticated methods usually require information beyond the available measurements, and one way or another incorporate all a priori knowledge. This can manifest in state estimation, model-based prediction, or robust design assuming the worst case, among others. The better the model the better the achievable control; however, all aspects of modeling are more difficult in the case of physiological systems compared to regular engineering applications. In the following, we will investigate how various errors resulting from modeling inaccuracies affect the prediction of the behavior in case of blood glucose prediction. Sigma-point filters are used to efficiently support Kalman filtering, while the error sources are introduced in a single uncertainty block.