Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The Past and Future of Fertility Change in India

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Contemporary Demographic Transformations in China, India and Indonesia

Part of the book series: Demographic Transformation and Socio-Economic Development ((DTSD,volume 5))

Abstract

This chapter examines the pace and contours of fertility decline in India since the 1950s. India’s fertility recent history is characterized on the one hand by long-term trends that are both slow and steady, and on the other hand by a considerable level of geographical heterogeneity. In the absence of any strong determinant of fertility change, the decline appears to be largely self-sustained across India. I use therefore observed trends over the last four decades to forecast the course of fertility in India in the coming years. Results of this simulation point to a pace of fertility decline which is distinctly faster than most recent projections of fertility trends in India.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    This chapter benefited from comments by an anonymous referee and by colleagues on an earlier version presented at meetings in Singapore and Busan.

  2. 2.

    Figures derived from the United Nations estimates for 1950–2100 (UNPD 2013).

  3. 3.

    For lack of space, we will not discuss several demographic issues of fertility decline such as age-specific fertility rates and changes in marital status described by NFHS survey waves. Most recent statistics on age, regional and marital fertility differentials can be found in SRS (2013).

  4. 4.

    The countries selected for comparison are the following: Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, South Korea, Thailand, Uzbekistan, and Viet Nam. Afghanistan and Japan have been excluded respectively for their delayed and early fertility transition.

  5. 5.

    We exclude here South Korea because of the impact of the Korean war of 1950–1953. Fertility rebounded to 6.3 children per woman after 1955, which suggests it must have been close to 6 during pretransitional years.

  6. 6.

    This corresponds to an accelerating decline in relative levels. Note that this acceleration stopped after 20 years in most other Asian countries while the simulation exercise carried on further below suggests that the rate of decline may not slow down before 2020 in India (see Figure).

  7. 7.

    The highest standard deviation (above .50) is observed for Iran and China where fertility decline was once the steepest and has now virtually ended.

  8. 8.

    See Rele (1987) and Jain and Adlakha (1982).

  9. 9.

    For a strictly statistical approach to these critical years as trend discontinuity, see Goli and Arokiasamy (2013).

  10. 10.

    We are referring here to the statistical analysis of census data found in Malhotra et al. (1995), Murthi et al. (1995), Bhat (1996), Drèze and Murthi (2001), Guilmoto (2005) and Bhattacharya (2006).

  11. 11.

    The most recent SRS data confirm that women with education below primary in Kerala and Tamil Nadu had lower fertility in 2012 than graduates from Madhya Pradesh or Uttar Pradesh (SRS 2013).

  12. 12.

    For want of adequate theory, finance economics often resort to a chartist approach in which forecasts are derived solely from past behavior of indicators.

  13. 13.

    For a more severe evaluation of probabilistic methods, see Lesthaeghe (2012).

  14. 14.

    Fertility estimates are missing for several districts for specific years in states such as Assam and Jammu and Kashmir. See the appendix for detail of this dataset.

  15. 15.

    See also Navaneetham and Dharmalingam (2011) for a discussion of trends.

  16. 16.

    Our forecast is probably less reliable for this lowest level due to the limited number of Indian districts (37) that had recorded fertility below 1.8 before 2011.

  17. 17.

    Our forecast of fertility decline departs even more from the somewhat alarming PFI-PRB set of projections– according to which India will not reach replacement level before 2040 or even 2060 as per its two variants.

  18. 18.

    The date at which TFR reaches 2.1 is respectively 2021 and 2026 with higher floors of 1.8 and 2.1 (Dyson 2009). As it happens, recent estimates from low-fertility states suggest that the current floor level is in the range of 1.7–1.8 children per woman.

  19. 19.

    Computations based here on the difference between the medium-fertility and low-fertility variants of the 2012 United Nations prospects.

  20. 20.

    Dharmalingam et al. (2014) argues on the contrary against rapid regional convergence.

  21. 21.

    See, however, the obvious limitations of the diffusion model expressed by Säävälä (2010) in her description of the spectacular fertility decrease observed in Andhra Pradesh.

References

  • Alkema, L., et al. (2011). Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries. Demography, 48, 815–839.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Balabdaoui, F., et al. (2001). Space–time evolution of the fertility transition in India. 1961–1991. International Journal of Population Geography, 7, 129–148.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Basu, A. M., & Amin, S. (2000). Conditioning factors for fertility decline in Bengal: History, language identity, and openness to innovations. Population and Development Review, 26(4), 761–794.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bhat, P. N. M. (1989). Mortality and fertility in India, 1881–1961: A reassessment. In T. Dyson (Ed.), India’s historical demography. Studies in famine, disease and society (pp. 73–118). London: Curzon Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bhat, P. N. M. (1996). Contours of fertility decline in India: A district level study based on the 1991 census. In K. Srinivasan (Ed.), Population policy and reproductive health (pp. 96–179). New Delhi: Hindustan Publishing Corporation.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bhat, P. N. M. (2002). Returning a favor: Reciprocity between female education and fertility in India. World Development, 30(10), 1791–1803.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bhat, P. N. M., & Zavier, A. F. (2003). Fertility decline and gender bias in Northern India. Demography, 40(4), 637–657.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bhattacharya, P. C. (2006). Economic development, gender inequality, and demographic outcomes: Evidence from India. Population and Development Review, 32, 263–292.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Casterline, J. B. (Ed.). (2001). Diffusion processes and fertility transition: Selected perspectives. Washington: National Academy Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Claeson, M., et al. (2000). Reducing child mortality in India in the new millennium. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 78(10), 1192–1199.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dharmalingam, A., & Morgan, S. P. (2004). Pervasive Muslim-Hindu fertility differences in India. Demography, 41(3), 529–545.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dharmalingam, A., Rajan, S., & Morgan, S. P. (2014). The determinants of low fertility in India. Demography, 51(4), 1451–1475.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Drèze, J., & Murthi, M. (2001). Fertility, education, and development: Evidence from India. Population and Development Review, 27(1), 33–63.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dyson, T. (2009). On the future of human fertility in India. In Completing the fertility transition (Population Bulletin of the United Nations, pp. 392–408). New York: United Nations.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dyson, T., & Moore, M. (1983). On kinship structure, female autonomy and demographic behavior in India. Population and Development Review, 9(1), 35–60.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goli, S., & Arokiasamy, P. (2013). Demographic transition in India: An evolutionary interpretation of population and health trends using ‘change-point analysis’. PLoS ONE, 8(10), e76404. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0076404.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guilmoto, C. Z. (2005). Fertility decline in India: Maps, models and hypotheses. In C. Z. Guilmoto & S. I. Rajan (Eds.), Fertility transition in South India (pp. 385–435). New Delhi: Sage.

    Google Scholar 

  • Guilmoto, C. Z., & Rajan, S. I. (2001). Spatial patterns of fertility change in Indian districts. Population and Development Review, 27(4), 713–738.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guilmoto, C. Z., & Rajan, S. I. (2002). District level estimates of fertility from India’s 2001 census. Economic and Political Weekly, XXXVII(7), 665–672.

    Google Scholar 

  • Guilmoto, C. Z., & Rajan, S. I. (2013). Fertility at district level in India: Lessons from the 2011 census. Economic and Political Weekly, 48(23), 59–70.

    Google Scholar 

  • Haub, C. (2011). Future fertility prospects for India, Expert Paper, Population Division. New York: United Nations.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jain, A. K., & Adlakha, A. L. (1982). Preliminary estimates of fertility decline in India during the 1970s. Population and Development Review, 8(3), 589–606.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lesthaeghe, R. (2012). Erasmus’ monkey. Iconoclastic reflections on two developments in technical demography. In E. Beekink & E. Walhout (Eds.), Frans van Poppel: A sort of farewell. Liber Amicorum (pp. 39–44). The Hague: Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • Malhotra, A., Vanneman, R., & Kishor, S. (1995). Fertility, dimensions of patriarchy and development in India. Population and Development Review, 21(2), 281–305.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McNay, K., Arokiasamy, P., & Cassen, R. (2003). Why are uneducated women in India using contraception? A multilevel analysis. Population Studies, 57(1), 21–40.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murthi, M., Guio, A. C., & Drèze, J. (1995). Mortality, fertility and gender bias in India. Population and Development Review, 21(4), 745–782.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Navaneetham, K., & Dharmalingam, A. (2013). Demography and development: preliminary interpretations of the 2011 census. Economic & Political Weekly, 46(16), 13–17.

    Google Scholar 

  • PFI-PRB. (2007). The future population of India: A long range demographic view. Population Foundation of India and Population Reference Bureau. http://www.prb.org/pdf07/futurepopulationofindia.pdf

  • Registrar General of India. (1997). District level estimates of fertility and child mortality for 1991 and their interrelations with other variables (Occasional Paper No 1 of 1997). New Delhi: Controller of Publications.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rele, J. R. (1987). Fertility levels and trends in India. 1951–81. Population and Development Review, 13(3), 513–530.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Säävälä, M. (2010). Below replacement-level fertility in conditions of slow social and economic development: A review of the evidence from South India. Finnish Yearbook of Population Research, 45, 45–66.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sample Registration System (SRS). (2013). Statistical report 2012, Office of the Registrar General, India. New Delhi: Ministry of Home Affairs.

    Google Scholar 

  • United Nations Population Division. (2013). World population prospects: The 2012 revision. http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD/CEPED), Paris, France

    Christophe Z. Guilmoto

Authors
  1. Christophe Z. Guilmoto
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Christophe Z. Guilmoto .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Institut de Recherche pour le Développem, Paris, France

    Christophe Z. Guilmoto

  2. School of Demography, Australian National University, Canberra, West Australia, Australia

    Gavin W. Jones

Appendix: District-Level Fertility Estimates

Appendix: District-Level Fertility Estimates

Several sets of estimates are available for each date from various sources such as Guilmoto and Rajan (2001, 2002, 2013), Bhat (1996), (Registrar General of India 1997). Yet, several issues arise due to regular changes in district boundaries, which prevent the longitudinal analysis of fertility series over the years. The number of districts in India has regularly increasing over the years, starting from 310 districts in 1956 to 640 districts in 2011.

In order to prepare a consistent set of estimates for the largest number of districts, I combined the 1956–1991 series and the 2001–2011 estimates by Guilmoto and Rajan. Bhat’s estimates were only used to check the quality of our TFR estimates for 1981 and 1991. The resulting dataset was converted into surface maps of fertility in India for each census years by kriging. I then applied 2011 census boundaries to these maps of fertility to derive fertility estimates from 1961 to 2011.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Guilmoto, C.Z. (2016). The Past and Future of Fertility Change in India. In: Guilmoto, C., Jones, G. (eds) Contemporary Demographic Transformations in China, India and Indonesia. Demographic Transformation and Socio-Economic Development, vol 5. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24783-0_7

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24783-0_7

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-24781-6

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-24783-0

  • eBook Packages: Social SciencesSocial Sciences (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation