Abstract
The importance of different processes and feedbacks in online coupled chemistry-meteorology models for air quality simulations and weather prediction was investigated in COST Action ES1004 (EuMetChem). Case studies for Europe were performed with different models as a coordinated exercise for two episodes in 2010 in order to analyse the aerosol direct and indirect radiative effect and the response of different models to aerosol-radiation interactions.
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Acknowledgments
We gratefully acknowledge the support of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), REKLIM, the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, the Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Sport and Culture. We acknowledge the contribution of TNO (anthropogenic emissions database); ECMWF/MACC project & Meteo-France/CNRM-GAME (chemical boundary conditions), the Finnish Meteorological Institute FMI (fire emissions), the AQMEII initiative, the Centro de Supercomputacion y Visualizacion de Madrid (CESVIMA), and the Spanish Supercomputing Network (BSC).
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Questioner: Steven Hanna
Question: You presented many results comparing models with each other and with observations. Can you comment on whether the differences were significant, using standard statistical tests?
Answer: Looking at physical plausibility the decrease in downward solar radiation and daytime temperature due to the direct aerosol effect is robust for all model configurations. The same holds for WRF-Chem for the pronounced decrease in cloud water content and increase in solar radiation for cloudy conditions in the case of very low aerosol concentrations.
The differences in solar radiation and temperature between the simulations including the direct and indirect effect and the baseline case were tested for statistical significance using the Student’s t-test at different levels of significance (α = 0.01, 0.05, and 0.1). For the October episode and the area shown in Fig. 4.2 no significant differences in mean solar radiation and mean temperature between the baseline case and the simulations including the direct and indirect effect were found. Also for the fire episode differences between mean temperature and radiation from the simulations with and without the direct aerosol effect were not significant for the major part of the area shown in Fig. 4.1. Only for the region with high fire emissions, the differences in mean solar radiation and temperature were found to be significant during the second half of the fire episode—however only for α = 0.1.
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Forkel, R. et al. (2016). A Multi-model Case Study on Aerosol Feedbacks in Online Coupled Chemistry-Meteorology Models Within the COST Action ES1004 EuMetChem. In: Steyn, D., Chaumerliac, N. (eds) Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXIV. Springer Proceedings in Complexity. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24478-5_4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24478-5_4
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