Health Parameters Under Climate Change Projections for Airborne Benzo[a]Pyrene

Abstract

Semi-volatile organic pollutants (SVOCs) have a recognized impact on the environment and some of them have been banned in many countries for that reason. Others are not regulated in air quality legislation, except for benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), a polyaromatic hydrocarbon resulting from natural and anthropogenic combustion processes. The EU set an annual average limit of 1 ng/m³ in air and some health parameters can also be inferred from the correspondent ecotoxicity thresholds established for this chemical. With the help of chemistry transport models, the evolution of these parameters can be assessed under climate change scenarios, along with the BaP concentrations themselves. Hence, a scenario with MM5-CHIMERE driven by ECHAM5 SRES A2 forcing were calculated for the years 1991 to 2050, in a European domain with a spatial resolution of 25 km. An enhanced risk of lung cancer was registered throughout the covered area, deriving from a parallel increase in the BaP levels in air.

Question and Answer

QUESTIONER: Jaakko Kukkonen

QUESTION: Small-scale combustion is also responsible for the emissions of BaP. These emissions will very likely increase in the future, caused by climate change reduction policies that favour the use of renewable energy. How is this projected increase of BaP emissions reflected in your results?

ANSWER: In the approach followed in this contribution, the main objective is to to isolate the possible effects of climate change on the ground concentrations of air pollution. Therefore, the hypothesis of unchanged anthropogenic emissions has been implemented in the simulations. Therefore, BaP emissions coming from anthropogenic combustion processes have been kept constant.