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Aviation Turbulence Forecast Verification

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Aviation Turbulence

Abstract

Forecast verification is an essential part of any forecast system. Verification results can be used in many ways: in the development process to ensure changes are leading to the desired improvements and to assure users and relevant authorities the forecasts have the required level of skill and can help to maximise the value a user gains from the forecast. In this section, we look at the challenges of verifying both deterministic and probabilistic turbulence forecasts. We investigate the different potential sources of truth data for use in verification with some discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of each. We also look at the possible methodologies and metrics that can be applied with some suggestions on the most appropriate ways to verify turbulence forecasts.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK

    Philip G. Gill

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  1. Philip G. Gill
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Correspondence to Philip G. Gill .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Research, National Center for Atmospheric, Boulder, Colorado, USA

    Robert Sharman

  2. School of Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    Todd Lane

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Gill, P.G. (2016). Aviation Turbulence Forecast Verification. In: Sharman, R., Lane, T. (eds) Aviation Turbulence. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-23630-8_13

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-23630-8_13

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-23629-2

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-23630-8

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