Fusion Methodologies in Crisis Management

pp 423-433

Aggregation of Coherent Experts’ Opinions: A Tractable Extreme-Outcomes Consistent Rule

  • Marcello BasiliAffiliated withDEPS and SEM, University of Siena Email author 
  • , Alain ChateauneufAffiliated withIPAG Business School and PSE-CES, University of Paris-I

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The paper defines a consensus distribution with respect to experts’ opinions using a multiple quantile utility model. We show that the Steiner point (Schneider, Isr J Math 2:241–249, 1971) is the representative consensus probability. The new rule for aggregation of experts’ opinions, which can be simply evaluated by the Shapley value, is prudential and coherent.