Modeling for Policy Formulation: Causal Mapping, Scenario Generation, and Decision Evaluation

  • Aron Larsson
  • Osama Ibrahim
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 9249)


In this paper we present a work process with associated operational research modeling and analysis tools for the policy formulation stage of the Lindblom policy cycle process model. The approach exploits the use of causal maps for problem structuring and scenario generation of policy options together with decision analysis for evaluating generated scenarios taking preferences of decision makers and stakeholders into account. The benefits of interest when exploiting this integrated modeling approach is to enable for; (i) problem structuring and facilitating understanding and communication of a complex policy problem, (ii) simulation of policy consequences and identification of a smaller set of policy options from a possible very large set of possible options, and (iii) structured decision evaluation of the generated alternative policy options.


Policy analysis Impact assessment Policy modelling Problem structuring Dynamic simulation Causal mapping Scenario planning Decision analysis 


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© IFIP International Federation for Information Processing 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Computer and Systems SciencesStockholm UniversityStockholmSweden
  2. 2.Department of Information and Communications SystemsMid Sweden UniversitySundsvallSweden

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