Towards an Approach for Long Term AIS-Based Prediction of Vessel Arrival Times

  • Alexander Dobrkovic
  • Maria-Eugenia Iacob
  • Jos van Hillegersberg
  • Martin R. K. Mes
  • Maurice Glandrup
Part of the Lecture Notes in Logistics book series (LNLO)


The goal of this paper is to conduct a review of existing solutions and related algorithms on maritime route prediction using Automatic Information System (AIS) data, determine to what extent they can be applied to solve the prediction problem, and identify areas that have to be improved in order to get an industry-acceptable solution to enhance various logistics planning processes. The contributions of this paper are: (i) to present the available solutions for trajectory prediction of a vessel; (ii) to identify components that can be used for finding a solution for the identified problem as well as showing the strengths and weaknesses of each available option; and (iii) to propose a new concept for arrival time estimation based on trajectory prediction and the use of algorithms from the included literature review.


Automatic Identification System Trajectory analysis Route prediction Maritime logistics Transportation planning 



This work is part of the R&D project Synchromodal-IT that is partly funded by the Dutch Institute of Advanced Logistics (DINALOG).


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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Alexander Dobrkovic
    • 1
  • Maria-Eugenia Iacob
    • 1
  • Jos van Hillegersberg
    • 1
  • Martin R. K. Mes
    • 1
  • Maurice Glandrup
    • 1
  1. 1.Faculty of Behavioural, Management and Social SciencesUniversity of TwenteEnschedeThe Netherlands

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