E-Mobility Likely Winners and Losers

Abstract

E-mobility revolves around proven technologies that have leapfrogged from other industries (i.e., telecom and IT) and thus don’t need fundamental research breakthroughs for implementation. Unlike Maglev, Hyperloop, or even flying cars technologies, whose fate we describe in this chapter, all the right forces are there for unmanned electrical vehicles to thrive. The e-mobility revolution will bring tremendous revenue opportunities for those companies that will be able to anticipate the market trends and provide product and service offering that new technologies, regulations, and fulfillment of unattended needs will generate. With so much money involved (by 2020–2025 the yearly market size for the unmanned signaling technologies alone will be around $200 billion), there is no doubt in our mind that the automotive industry will go the same way as the railway industry: electric and unmanned. No big IT corporation, industrial group, car, or railway manufacturer, and infrastructure company can ignore such a fundamental shift in urban mobility. There will definitely be winners but also market losers that will see revenue, relevancy, or brand awareness shrink or rise as a result of these new offerings. This chapter explains how the many pieces of a large puzzle fit together. It will first show the barrier to adoption to electric unmanned technology. It will then give our view on if the automotive market will grow or shrink when all cars will be driverless. Three business scenarios will be analyzed to help corporations position themselves in regard to this market: designer, licensing, and service models. The e-mobility revolution will disrupt the transportation market as we know it and will bring opportunities and threats for many potential actors. Once cars are electric, unmanned, and managed by fleet owners there will be no differentiation between public and private transport. We will give our view on a long list of potential market losers (i.e., parking owners, municipalities, car manufacturers, body shops, current PRT manufacturers, steel companies, light rail vehicle, conventional bus operation, conventional car rental industry, fossil fuel Industry, health sector, personal-injury lawyers) and winners (i.e., electric car manufacturers, environment, insurers, Government authorities, software providers, system integrators, road infrastructure companies, electrical infrastructure providers, Society).

Companies and Brands Stated in the Chapter

• Cessna Aircraft Company

• Ferrari S.p.A.

• PAL-V Europe NV

• SkyTran Company

• Thyssenkrupp AG

• Google Inc.

• Uber Inc

• Nokia Corporation

• Microsoft Corporation

• Research in Motion

• Apple Inc

• Android is a trademark of Google Inc

• IBM/International Business Machines Corporation

• Toyota Motor Corporation

• Volkswagen Aktiengesellschaft

• General Motors Corporation

• Robert Bosch GmbH

• Car2Go is a subsidiary of Daimler AG

• Daimler AG

• Renault S.A.

• Tesla Motor Inc.

• Pay-Per-Click is a trademark of Google Inc.

• Waze is a company acquired by Google inc.

• Audi AG

• QNX is a brand of Blackberry

• Google Maps is a trademark of Google Inc

• Fiat/Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V.

• Peugeot S.A.

• Ford Motor Company

• Hyundai

• Northrop Grumman Corporation

• Thales S.A.

• Ericsson/Telefonaktiebolaget L. M. Ericsson

• Nokia Networks

• Alcatel-Lucent S.A.

• Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd.

• Cisco Systems Inc.

• Siemens AG

• Alstom S.A.