Abstract
The demographic development in developed western countries entails a dramatic shortage of the health care workforce. Based on census and professional association provided data and projections the amount of this shortage is calculated for the USA and Germany. In best case scenarios we still come to conclusions that, to preserve the medical service level, we need a 30 % to 80 % larger health care workforce. Otherwise the number of Old agers served by one physician resp. nurse skyrockets within 10 to 15 years.Assumptions that enter the model are double checked exclusively coming to the conclusion that apparent easing factors turn out as time bombs or double edged.Of methods presented to match future supply and demand quality assurance, growth and diversification are promising. Consumer Health Informatics is introduced as diversification which can make use of trends in ICT and ease access to otherwise under-served population s.
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Notes
- 1.
This should by no means be taken sarcastically; it is just to illustrate the effects of assumptions made as clearly as possible.
- 2.
In Germany there is no one-on-one matching structure for the US licensing and license renewal process. Physicians in own private practices are obliged to provide proof of a certain amount of CME taken per 3 year interval to preserve their contract with the social insurance system. Hospitals have QA programs part of which target at qualification of employed physicians.
- 3.
Computerized Physician Order Entry, also Computerized Provider Order Entry: ordering medications or diagnostic or therapeutic procedures online; in advanced implementations combined with an electronic record system where contraindications or interactions of new orders with the present patient medication or condition can be checked and alerts can be issued.
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Wetter, T. (2016). Economy 1: Immanent Mismatch Between Demand and Supply of Health Care Workforce. In: Consumer Health Informatics. Health Informatics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19590-2_2
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