Abstract
The Beijing urban development model (BUDEM), based on prevalent urban growth theory and constrained cellular automatic, has been developed in 2008 for analyzing and simulating urban growth for the Beijing Metropolitan Area (BMA). It is proved that the model is capable of analyzing historical urban growth mechanisms and predicting future urban growth for metropolitan areas in China. In this chapter, we extend the study of BUDEM from the BMA to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area (BTH), via replacing the datasets of the model and adjusting necessary parameters. BUDEM-BTH considers the heterogeneity of driving force as model parameters, and fulfill accurate simulation in large-scale. The model BUDEM-BTH is used to identify urban growth mechanisms in two historical phases from 2000 to 2005 and from 2005 to 2010, to retrieve urban growth policies needed to implement the desired (planned) urban form in 2020, and to simulate urban growth scenarios for 2049 based on the urban form and parameter set in 2020. Seven urban growth scenarios are put forward, such as the trend scenario, high-speed growth scenario, low-speed growth scenario, highway finger growth scenario, urban promoting growth scenario, developing forbidden area growth scenario, and traffic leading growth scenario. In addition, BUDEM-BTH is the first applicable urban growth model in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area and has been applied in several plan projects.
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Long, Y., Shen, Z. (2015). Urban Expansion Simulation and Analysis in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area Based on BUDEM-BTH. In: Geospatial Analysis to Support Urban Planning in Beijing. GeoJournal Library, vol 116. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19342-7_3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19342-7_3
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
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