Abstract
The aim of the study is development of an integrated flood forecasting system for the middle reach of the River Vistula between Zawichost and Warsaw Port Praski. It has a modular structure, consisting of flood wave transformation models for the main river reach. The system predictions are based on water level observations, as the most robust information on the system state. We describe the system structure and we show that three-day ahead predictions of water levels at Warsaw Port Praski reach of the river can be obtained using a simple, lumped parameter Stochastic Transfer Function (STF) model. Apart from a single lumped model also serially connected Single Input Single Output (SISO) and Multiple Inputs Single Output (MISO) STF models describing river sub-reaches situated between the gauging stations have been derived. In this way, the system can have either lumped or semi-distributed structures. Due to the stochastic nature of the methods applied the confidence limits of the predictions are also estimated. The ability to tackle the nonlinearity of the flood wave transformation process by means of the Hammerstein-Wiener modelling approach is studied.
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Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the project “Stochastic flood forecasting system (The River Vistula reach from Zawichost to Warsaw)” carried by the Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, on the order of the National Science Centre (contract No. 2011/01/B/ST10/06866). The water level data were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.
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Romanowicz, R.J., Osuch, M. (2015). Stochastic Semi-distributed Flood Forecasting System for the Middle Vistula Reach. In: Romanowicz, R., Osuch, M. (eds) Stochastic Flood Forecasting System. GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-18854-6_9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-18854-6_9
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