Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Climate Change Impact Assessment on Groundwater Recharge of the Upper Tiber Basin (Central Italy)

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Landscape Dynamics, Soils and Hydrological Processes in Varied Climates

Part of the book series: Springer Geography ((SPRINGERGEOGR))

Abstract

This chapter discusses the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge of the upper Tiber River basin (UTRB) in central Italy . The chapter also provides summaries and overview of climate change studies over the Italian territory. A calibrated and validated watershed model, soil and water assessment tool (SWAT ), was forced by the climate model outputs obtained from three dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCMs ) to evaluate the recharge characteristics of the basin. During calibration, the watershed model was highly sensitivity to groundwater flow parameters. The climate change analysis from the three RCMs indicated that by the end of twenty-first century, rainfall will decrease up to 40 % in the dry period and there will be an increase in temperature that could reach as high as 3–5 °C. Moreover, the bias-corrected RCM outputs showed different results among models. Such variation of result calls for further investigation of model uncertainty. Groundwater recharge shows a decreasing trend as a response to changes in rainfall. However, as the timing of both precipitation and recharge is critical for future groundwater development in the basin, further analysis through different climate models, downscaling approach and groundwater modeling needs to be taken into account.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 169.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Allen DM, Mackie DC, Wei M (2004) Groundwater and climate change: a sensitivity analysis for the Grand Forks aquifer, southern British Columbia, Canada. Hydrogeol J 12(3):270–290

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allen DM, Cannon AJ, Toews MW, Scibek J (2010) Variability in simulated recharge using different GCMs. Water Resour Res 46(10)

    Google Scholar 

  • Arnold JG, Allen PM (1996) Estimating hydrologic budgets for three Illinois watersheds. J Hydrol 176(1–4):57–77

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arnold JG, Allen PM (1999) Automated methods for estimating baseflow and groundwater recharge from streamflow records. JAWRA J Am Water Resour Assoc 35(2):411–424

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arnold JG, Srinivasan R, Muttiah RS, Williams JR (1998) Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment—part 1: model development. J Am Water Resour Assoc 34(1):73–89

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Arribas AA, Gallardo CG, Gaertner MG, Castro MC (2003) Sensitivity of the Iberian Peninsula climate to a land degradation. Clim Dyn 20(5):477–489

    Google Scholar 

  • Assefa A, Melesse AM, Admasu S (2014) Climate change in upper Gilgel Abay River catchment, Blue Nile basin Ethiopia. In: Melesse AM, Abtew W, Setegn S (eds) Nile River basin: ecohydrological challenges, climate change and hydropolitics, pp 363–388

    Google Scholar 

  • Bartolini G, di Stefano V, Maracchi G, Orlandini S (2012) Mediterranean warming is especially due to summer season evidences from Tuscany (central Italy). Theoret Appl Climatol 107(1–2):279–295

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Behulu F (2013) Modelling the hydrologic behavior of the upper Tiber River basin under climate change scenarios. PhD dissertation

    Google Scholar 

  • Behulu F, Melesse AM, Romano E, Volpi E, Fiori A (2012) Statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature for the Upper Tiber Basin in Central Italy. Int J Water Sci 1(3)

    Google Scholar 

  • Behulu F, Setegn S, Melesse AM, Fiori A (2013) Hydrological analysis of the Upper Tiber basin: a watershed modeling approach. Hydrol Process 27(16):2339–2351

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Behulu F, Setegn S, Melesse AM, Romano E, Fiori A (2014) Impact of climate change on the hydrology of upper Tiber River basin using bias corrected regional climate model. Water Resour Manage 28:1327–1343

    Google Scholar 

  • Beniston M, Stephenson D, Christiansen O, Ferro C, Frei C, Goyette S, Halsnaes K, Holt T, Jylha K, Koffi B, Palutikof J, Scholl R, Semmler T, Woth K (2007) Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections. Clim Change 81:71–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brocca L, Camici S, Tarpanelli A, Melone F, Moramarco T (2011) Analysis of climate change effects on floods frequency through a continuous hydrological modelling. In: Baba A et al (eds) Climate change and its effects on water resources NATO science for peace and security series C: environmental security, vol 3, pp 97–104

    Google Scholar 

  • Brunetti M, Colacino M, Maugeri M, Nanni T (2001) Trends in the daily intensity of precipitation in Italy from 1951 to 1996. Int J Climatol 21(3):299–316

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brunetti M, Colacino M, Nanni T, Navarra A (2002) Droughts and extreme events in regional daily Italian precipitation series. Int J Climatol 22:543–558

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brunetti M, Buffoni L, Mangianti F, Maugeri M, Nanni T (2004) Temperature, precipitation and extreme events during the last century in Italy. Global Planet Change 40(1–2):141–149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brunetti M, Maugeri M, Monti F, Nanni T (2006) Temperature and precipitation variability in Italy in the last two centuries from homogenised instrumental time series. Int J Climatol 26:345–381

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buonomo E, Jones R, Huntingford C, Hannaford J (2007) On the robustness of changes in extreme precipitation over Europe from two high resolution climate change simulations. Q J Royal Meteorol Soc 133(622):65–81

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burlando P, Rosso R (2002) Effects of transient climate change on basin hydrology. 2. Impact on runoff variability in the Arno River, Central Italy. Hydrol Process 16:1177–1199

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cesari G (2010) Il bacino del Tevere, il suo ambiente idrico e l’impatto antropico. http://www.museoenergia.it/museo.php?stanza=12&ppost=962. Accessed 20 Dec 2014

  • Chen Z, Grasby SE, Osadetz KG (2002) Predicting annual groundwater levels from climatic variables: an emperical model. J Hydrol 260:102–117

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen Z, Grasby SE, Osadetz KG (2004) Relation between climate variability and groundwater levels in the upper carbonate aquifer, southern Manitoba, Canada. J Hydrol 290:43–62

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Christensen JH, Carter TR, Rummukainena M, Amanatidis G (2007) Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: the PRUDENCE project. Clim Change 81:1–6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Colombo T, Pelino V, Vergari S, Cristofanelli P, Bonasoni P (2007) Study of temperature and precipitation variations in Italy based on surface instrumental observations. Glob Planet Change 57:308–318

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coppola E, Giorgi F (2010) An assessment of temperature and precipitation change projections over Italy from recent global and regional climate model simulations. Int J Climatol 30(1):11–32

    Google Scholar 

  • D’Agostino DR, Trisorio LG, Lamaddalena N, Ragab R (2010) Assessing the results of scenarios of climate and land use changes on the hydrology of an Italian catchment: modelling study. Hydrol Process 24(19):2693–2704

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dessu SB, Melesse AM (2012) Modeling the rainfall-runoff process of the Mara River basin using SWAT. Hydrol Process 26(26):4038–4049

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dessu SB, Melesse AM (2013) Impact and uncertainties of climate change on the hydrology of the Mara River basin. Hydrol Process 27(20):2973–2986

    Google Scholar 

  • Dessu SB, Melesse AM, Bhat M, McClain M (2014) Assessment of water resources availability and demand in the Mara River basin. CATENA 115:104–114

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Di Matteo L, Dragoni W (2006) Climate change and water resources in limestone and mountain areas: the case of Firenzuola Lake (Umbria, Italy). In: Proceedings of the 8th conference on limestone hydrogeology 2006, Neuchâtel, Switzerland

    Google Scholar 

  • European Union (2000) Directive 2000/60/EC of the European parliament and of the. Official J Eur Communities L327(2):72–73

    Google Scholar 

  • Fatichi S, Caporali E (2009) A comprehensive analysis of changes in precipitation regime in Tuscany. Int J Climatol 29(13):1883–1893

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gassman PW, Reyes MR, Green CH, Arnold JG (2007) The soil and water assessment tool: historical development, applications, and future research directions. Trans ASABE 50(4):1211–1250

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Getachew HE, Melesse AM (2012) Impact of land use /land cover change on the hydrology of Angereb watershed, Ethiopia. Int J Water Sci 1,4:1–7. doi:10.5772/56266

    Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F (2006) Climate change hot-spots. Geophys Res Lett 33:L08707, doi:10.1029/2006GL025734

  • Giorgi F, Marinucci MR, Bates GT (1993a) Development of a second-generation regional climate model (RegCM2). Part I: boundary- layer and radiative transfer processes. Mon Weather Rev 21:2794–2813

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Marinucci MR, Bates GT (1993b) Development of a second-generation regional climate model (RegCM2). Part II: convective processes and assimilation of lateral boundary conditions. Mon Weather Rev 121:2814–2832

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Graham LP, Hagemann S, Jaun S, Beniston M (2007) On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models. Clim Change 81:97–122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Green TR, Taniguchi M, Kooi H, Gurda JJ, Allen DM, Hiscock KM, Treidel H, Aureli A (2011) Beneath the surface of global change: impacts of climate change on groundwater. J Hydrol 405:532–560

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grey OP, Dale F St, Webber G, Setegn Shimelis G, Melesse Assefa M (2013) Application of the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT Model) on a small tropical Island State (Great River Watershed, Jamaica) as a tool in integrated watershed and coastal zone management. Int J Trop Biol Conserv 62(3):293–305

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2000) Special report on emission scenarios (SRES): a special report of working group II of the intergovernmental pannel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. IPCC-Report AR4(WG-I)

    Google Scholar 

  • Jacob D, Bärring L, Christensen O, Christensen J, de Castro M, Déqué M, Giorgi F, Hagemann S, Hirschi M, Jones R, Kjellström E, Lenderink G, Rockel B, Sánchez E, Schär C, Seneviratne S, Somot S, van Ulden A, van den Hurk B (2007) An inter-comparison of regional climate models for Europe: model performance in present-day climate. Clim Change 81(0):31–52

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones CG, Willén U, Ullerstig A, Hansson U (2004) The Rossby centre regional atmospheric climate model part I. Model climatology and performance for the present climate over Europe. Ambio 33(4–5):199–210

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kjellstrom E, Barring L, Jacob D, Jones R, Lenderink G, Schar C (2007) Modeling daily temperature extremes: recent climate and future changes over Europe. Clim Change 81:249–265

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kløve B, Ala-Aho P, Bertrand G, Gurdak JJ, Kupfersberger H, Kværner Muotka T, Mykrä H, Preda E, Rossi P, Uvo CB, Velasco E, Pulido-Velazquez M (2014) Climate change impacts on groundwater and dependent ecosystems. J Hydrol 518:250–266

    Google Scholar 

  • Lenderink G, Buishand A, Van Deursen W (2007) Estimates of future discharges of the river Rhine using two scenario methodologies: direct versus delta approach. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 11(3):1145–1159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loaiciga HA (2003) Climate change and groundwater. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 93(1):30–41

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loaiciga HA, Maidment DR, Valdes JB (2000) Climate-change impacts in a regional karst aquifer, Texas, USA. J Hydrol 227(1–4):173–194

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Luo Y, Arnold J, Allen P, Chen X (2012) Baseflow simulation using SWAT model in an inland river basin in Tianshan Mountains, Northwest China. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16:1259–1267

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mango L, Melesse AM, McClain ME, Gann D, Setegn SG (2011a) Land use and climate change impacts on the hydrology of the upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: results of a modeling study to support better resource management. Spec Issue Clim Weather Hydrol East Afr Highlands Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15:2245–2258. doi:10.5194/hess-15-2245-2011

    Google Scholar 

  • Mango L, Melesse AM, McClain ME, Gann D, Setegn SG (2011b) Hydro-meteorology and water budget of Mara River basin, Kenya: a land use change scenarios analysis. In: Melesse A (ed) Nile River basin: hydrology, climate and water use (chapter 2). Springer Science Publisher, Berlin, pp 39–68. doi:10.1007/978-94-007-0689-7_2

    Google Scholar 

  • Matzneller P, VenturaF Gaspari N, Pisa PR (2010) Analysis of climatic trends in data from the agrometeorological station of Bologna-Cadriano, Italy (1952–2007). Clim Change 100(3–4):717–731

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Melesse A, Loukas Athanasios G, Senay Gabriel, Yitayew Muluneh (2009) Climate change, land-cover dynamics and ecohydrology of the Nile River Basin, Hydrological Processes. Spec Issue Nile Hydrol 23(26):3651–3652

    Google Scholar 

  • Melesse A, Bekele S, McCornick P (2011) Hydrology of the Niles in the face of land-use and climate dynamics. In: Melesse A (ed) Nile River basin: hydrology, climate and water use. Springer Science Publisher, Berlin, pp vii–xvii. doi:10.1007/978-94-007-0689-7

    Google Scholar 

  • Mohammed H, Alamirew T, Assen M, Melesse AM (2015) Modeling of sediment yield in Maybar gauged watershed using SWAT, northeast Ethiopia. CATENA 127:191–205

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moonen AC, Ercoli L, Mariotti M, Masoni A (2002) Climate change in Italy indicated by agrometeorological indices over 122 years. Agric For Meteorol 111:13–27

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moriasi DN, Arnold JG, Van Liew MW, Bingner RL, Harmel RD, Veith TL (2007) Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Trans ASABE 50(3):885–900

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Neitsch SL, Arnol JG, Kiniry JR, Williams JR (2005) Soil and water assessment tool, theoretical documentation version 2005

    Google Scholar 

  • Neitsch SL, Arnold JG, Kiniry JR, Williams JR (2009) Soil and water assessment tool, theoretical documentation version 2009

    Google Scholar 

  • Romano E, Preziosi E (2012) Precipitation pattern analysis in the Tiber River Basin (Central Italy) using standardized indices. Int J Climatol 33(7):1791792

    Google Scholar 

  • Romano E, Petrangeli AB, Preziosi E (2011) Spatial and time analysis of rainfall in the Tiber River basin (Central Italy) in relation to discharge measurements (1920–2010). Proc Environ Sci 7:258–263

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roosmalen VL, Christensen BSB, Sonnenborg TO (2007) Regional differences in climate change impacts on groundwater and stream discharge in Denmark. Vadoze Zone J 6(3):554–571 (special issue)

    Google Scholar 

  • Roosmalen VL, Sonnenborg OT, Jensen HK (2009) Impact of climate and land use change on the hydrology of a large-scale agricultural catchment. Water Resour Res 45(7)

    Google Scholar 

  • Scibek J, Allen DM (2006) Modeled impacts of predicted climate change on recharge and groundwater levels. Water Resour Res 42(W11405):1–18

    Google Scholar 

  • Singh VP, Woolhiser DA (2002) Mathematical modeling of watershed hydrology. J Hydrol Eng 7(4):270–292

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor RG, Scanlon B, Döll P, Rodell M, van Beek R, Wada Y, Longuevergne L, Leblanc M, Famiglietti JS, Edmunds M, Konikow L, Green TR, Chen J, Taniguchi M, Bierkens MFP, MacDonald A, Fan Y, Maxwell RM, Yechieli Y, Gurdak J, Allen D, Shamsudduha M, Hiscock K, Yeh PJF, Treidel H (2013) Groundwater and climate change. Nat Clim Change 3:322–329

    Google Scholar 

  • Teutschbein CA, Seibert J (2012) Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: review and evaluation of different methods. J Hydrol (456–457):12–29

    Google Scholar 

  • Themeßl MJ, Gobiet AA, Leuprecht A (2010) Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of daily precipitation from regional climate models. Int J Climatol 31(10):1530–1544

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Todisco F, Vergni L (2008) Climatic changes in Central Italy and their potential effects on corn water consumption. Agric For Meteorol 148(1):1–11

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Toews MW, Allen DM (2009) Simulated response of groundwater to predicted recharge in a semi-arid region using a scenario of modelled climate change. Environ Res Lett 4(035003):19

    Google Scholar 

  • Vergni L, Todisco F (2011) Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation, temperature and agricultural drought indices in Central Italy. Agric For Meteorol 151(3):301–313

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang X, Melesse AM (2005) Evaluations of the SWAT model’s snowmelt hydrology in a Northwestern Minnesota Watershed. Trans ASAE 48(4):1359–1376

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang X, Melesse AM (2006) Effects of STATSGO and SSURGO as inputs on SWAT model’s snowmelt simulation. J Am Water Resour Assoc 42(5):1217–1236

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang X, Melesse AM, Yang W (2006) Influences of potential evapotranspiration estimation methods on SWAT’s hydrologic simulation in a Northwestern Minnesota watershed. Trans ASAE 49(6):1755–1771

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang X, Shang S, Yang W, Melesse AM (2008a) Simulation of an agricultural watershed using an improved curve number method in SWAT. Trans Am Soc Agri Bio Eng 51(4):1323–1339

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang X, Yang W, Melesse AM (2008b) Using hydrologic equivalent wetland concept within SWAT to estimate streamflow in watersheds with numerous wetlands. Trans Am Soc Agri Bio Eng 51(1):55–72

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang X, Garza J, Whitney M, Melesse AM, Yang W (2008c) Prediction of sediment source areas within watersheds as affected by soil data resolution, In: Findley PN (ed) Environmental modelling: new research, chap 7. Nova Science Publishers, Inc., Hauppauge, pp 151–185 (ISBN: 978-1-60692-034-3)

    Google Scholar 

  • Woldeamlak ST, Batelaan O, De Smedt F (2007) Effects of climate change on the groundwater system in the Grote-Nete catchment, Belgium. Hydrogeol J 15:891–901

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to acknowledge the Hydrographic Service of Umbria region for the hydrometeorological data of the study area. The authors also thank the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) for the providing soil data free of charge.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Roma Tre University, Rome, Italy

    Fiseha Behulu & Aldo Fiori

  2. Department of Earth and Environment, Florida International University, Modesto A. Maidique Campus, Mimi, FL, 33199, USA

    Assefa M. Melesse

Authors
  1. Fiseha Behulu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Assefa M. Melesse
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Aldo Fiori
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Fiseha Behulu .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth & Environment, Florida International University, Miami, Florida, USA

    Assefa M. Melesse

  2. South Florida Water Management District, West Palm Beach, Florida, USA

    Wossenu Abtew

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Behulu, F., Melesse, A.M., Fiori, A. (2016). Climate Change Impact Assessment on Groundwater Recharge of the Upper Tiber Basin (Central Italy). In: Melesse, A., Abtew, W. (eds) Landscape Dynamics, Soils and Hydrological Processes in Varied Climates. Springer Geography. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-18787-7_30

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation