Abstract:
Man’s level of dependence on equipment is increasing. This degree of dependence requires high levels of availability, which has been changing the impact that disruption of these systems causes. For many systems, an interruption has consequences that go beyond the dimension of financial loss, thus justifying a multidimensional consequence approach by using multicriteria (MCDM/A) models. Thus, understanding the relationships between and among risk, reliability and maintenance (RRM) is essential in order to offer more comprehensive solutions to the various problems often treated in isolation from each other, and which are the most important problems of the competitive market. This chapter discusses fundamental topics about RRM, including tools for risk analysis and hazard identification, concepts of reliability, maintenance techniques such as RCM and TPM and eliciting expert’s knowledge. These topics are presented in order to provide a basis for structuring different MCDM/A problems that are addressed in several chapters. Some fundamental aspects could be used as input to decision models in different forms such as attributes, objectives, criteria, and problem context.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsReferences
Ackermann F, Howick S, Quigley J, et al. (2014) Systemic risk elicitation: Using causal maps to engage stakeholders and build a comprehensive view of risks. Eur J Oper Res 238:290–299
Ahmad R, Kamaruddin S (2012) An overview of time-based and condition-based maintenance in industrial application. Comput Ind Eng 63(1):135–149
Ale B, Burnap P, Slater D (2015) On the origin of PCDS – (Probability consequence diagrams). Saf Sci 72:229–239
Alencar MH, de Almeida AT (2010) Assigning priorities to actions in a pipeline transporting hydrogen based on a multicriteria decision model. Int J Hydrogen Energy 35(8):3610–3619
Al-Kassab J, Ouertani ZM, Schiuma G, Neely A (2014) Information visualization to support management decisions. Int J Inf Technol Decis Mak 13(2):407–428
Andrews JD, Dunnett SJ (2000) Event-tree analysis using binary decision diagrams. Reliab IEEE Trans 49(2):230–238
Andrews JD, Moss TR (2002) Reliability and risk assessment. Wiley-Blackwell, Suffolk
Arendt JS, Lorenzo DK (2000) Evaluating process safety in the chemical industry: a user’s guide to quantitative risk analysis. American Chemistry Council
Assael MJ, Kakosimos KE (2010) Fires, explosions, and toxic gas dispersions: Effects calculation and risk analysis. CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group, Florida
Aven T (2008) Risk analysis: assessing uncertainties beyond expected values and probabilities. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester
Aven T (2012) Foundations of Risk Analysis. 2nd ed. John Wiley & Sons, p 198, Chichester
Aven T, Jensen U (2013) Stochastic Models in Reliability. Stochastic Modelling and Applied Probability. Springer, New York
Aven T, Vinnem JE (2007) Risk Management with applications from the offshore petroleum industry. Springer Series in Reliability Engineering. Springer-Verlag, London
Baker RD, Christer AH (1994) Review of delay-time OR modelling of engineering aspects of maintenance. Eur J Oper Res 73(3):407–422
Barlow R, Hunter L (1960) Optimum Preventive Maintenance Policies. Oper Res 8:90–100
Barlow RE, Hunter LC (1961) Reliability Analysis of a One-Unit System. Oper Res 9:200–208
Barlow RE, Proschan F (1965) Mathematical theory of reliability. John Wiley & Sons, New York
Barlow RE, Proschan F (1975) Statistical theory of reliability and life testing: probability models. DTIC Document
Bazovsky I (2004) Reliability theory and practice. Dover Publications, Mineola
Bedford T, Cooke R (2001) Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods. Cambridge University Press, New York
Ben‐Daya M (2000) You may need RCM to enhance TPM implementation. J Qual Maint Eng 6(2):82–85
Bérenguer C, Grall A, Dieulle L, Roussignol M (2003) Maintenance policy for a continuously monitored deteriorating system. Probab Eng Informational Sci 17(2):235–250
Berger JO (1985) Statistical decision theory and Bayesian analysis. Springer Science & Business Media, New York
Birolini A (2014) Reliability Engineering. Theory and Practice. Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Bostrom A, Anselin L, Farris J (2008) Visualizing Seismic Risk and Uncertainty. Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. Blackwell Publishing Inc, pp 29–40
Braglia M (2000) MAFMA: multi‐attribute failure mode analysis. Int J Qual Reliab Manag 17(2):1017–1033
Braglia M, Frosolini M, Montanari R (2003) Fuzzy TOPSIS approach for failure mode, effects and criticality analysis. Qual Reliab Eng Int 19(5):425–443
Brissaud F, Charpentier D, Fouladirad M, et al. (2010) Failure rate evaluation with influencing factors. J Loss Prev Process Ind 23(2):187–193
Brito AJ, de Almeida AT (2009) Multi-attribute risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 94(2):187–198
BS EN 60706-2 (2010) Maintenance. Maintenance terminology, British Standards Institution
Calixto E (2013) Gas and Oil Reliability Engineering: Modeling and Analysis. Gulf Professional Publishing, Oxford
Carter ADS (1986) Mechanical reliability. Macmillan London
Chang C, Wei C, Lee Y (1999) Failure mode and effects analysis using fuzzy method and grey theory. Kybernetes 28(9):1072–1080
Chang C-C (2014) Optimum preventive maintenance policies for systems subject to random working times, replacement, and minimal repair. Comput Ind Eng 67:185–194
Clemen RT, Winkler RL (1999) Combining Probability Distributions from Experts in Risk Analysis. Risk Anal 19:187–203
Corder AS (1976) Maintenance management techniques. McGraw-Hill
Cox LA Jr (2009) Risk analysis of complex and uncertain systems. Springer Science & Business Media, New York
Crowl DA, Louvar JF (2001) Chemical Process Safety: Fundamentals with applications. Prentice Hall, Boston
Dekker R (1995) On the use of operations research models for maintenance decision making. Microelectron Reliab 35(9):1321–1331
Dekker R (1996) Applications of maintenance optimization models: a review and analysis. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 51(3):229–240
Dekker R, Scarf PA (1998) On the impact of optimisation models in maintenance decision making: the state of the art. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 60(2):111–119
Dong C (2007) Failure mode and effects analysis based on fuzzy utility cost estimation. Int J Qual Reliab Manag 24(9):958–971
Drapella A, Kosznik S (2002) Combining preventive replacement and burn-in procedures. Qual Reliab Eng Int 18(5):423–427
Ekel P, Queiroz J, Parreiras R, Palhares R (2009) Fuzzy set based models and methods of multicriteria group decision making. Nonlinear Anal Theory, Methods Appl 71:e409–e419
Eppler MJ, Aeschimann M (2009) A systematic framework for risk visualization in risk management and communication. Risk Manag 11(2):67–89
Ericson CA (2005) Hazard analysis techniques for system safety. John Wiley & Sons
Fedra K (1998) Integrated risk assessment and management: overview and state of the art. J Hazard Mater 61:5–22
Finkelstein M (2008) Failure rate modelling for reliability and risk. Springer Science & Business Media, London
Fischer GW (1981) When oracles fail – A comparison of four procedures for aggregating subjective probability forecasts. Organ Behav Hum Perform 28:96–110
Fjeld RA, Eisenberg NA, Compton KL (2007) Quantitative environmental risk analysis for human health. John Wiley & Sons
Fouladirad M, Grall A (2014) On-line change detection and condition-based maintenance for systems with unknown deterioration parameters. IMA J Manag Math 25(2):139–158
Garbatov Y, Guedes Soares C (2001) Cost and reliability based strategies for fatigue maintenance planning of floating structures. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 73(3):293–301
Garcez TV, Almeida-Filho AT de, de Almeida AT (2011) Procedures for aggregating experts’ knowledge and group decision model approaches. In: Bérenguer C, Grall A, Soares CG (eds) 20th European Safety and Reliability (ESREL 2011) annual conference, Troyes, September 2011. Safety, Reliability and Risk Management. 2012. Taylor and Francis, London, p 3076
Garcez TV, Almeida-Filho AT de, de Almeida AT, Alencar MH (2010) Experts’ elicitation of prior knowledge on accidental releases in a natural gas pipeline. In: Bris R, Soares CG, Martorell S (eds) European safety and reliability conference, Prague, September 2009. Reliability, Risk, and Safety: Theory and Applications, Vol. 1-3. 2009. Taylor and Francis, London, UK, p 2480
Garcez TV, de Almeida AT (2014) Multidimensional Risk Assessment of Manhole Events as a Decision Tool for Ranking the Vaults of an Underground Electricity Distribution System. Power Deliv IEEE Trans 29(2):624–632
Garthwaite PH, Kadane JB, O’Hagan A (2005) Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability Distributions. J Am Stat Assoc 100:680–701
Gertsbakh IB (1977) Models of preventive maintenance. North-Holland, New York
Glasser GJ (1969) Planned replacement- Some theory and its application (Probability theory applied to age and block replacement models in preventive maintenance of parts, noting inspection cost distribution). J Qual Technol 1:110–119
Grall A, Bérenguer C, Dieulle L (2002) A condition-based maintenance policy for stochastically deteriorating systems. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 76(2):167–180
Guedes Soares C, Garbatov Y (1996) Fatigue reliability of the ship hull girder accounting for inspection and repair. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 51(3):341–351
Hampton JM, Moore PG, Thomas H (1973) Subjective probability and its measurement. J R Stat Soc Ser A 136:21–42
Horwitz R (2004) Hedge Fund Risk Fundamentals: Solving the risk management and transparency challenge. John Wiley & Sons
Hotelling H (1925) A General Mathematical Theory of Depreciation. J Am Stat Assoc 20(151):340–353
HSE (1987) The Tolerability of Risk from Nuclear Power Stations. HMSO - Health and Safety Executive, London
Jaedicke C, Syre E, Sverdrup-Thygeson K (2014) GIS-aided avalanche warning in Norway. Comput Geosci 66:31–39
Jardine AKS (1973) Maintenance, Replacement and Reliability. John Wiley, New York
Jiang R, Jardine AKS (2007) An optimal burn-in preventive-replacement model associated with a mixture distribution. Qual Reliab Eng Int 23:83–93
Jiang R, Murthy DNP, Ji P (2001) Models involving two inverse Weibull distributions. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 73(1):73–81
Jorgenson DW, McCall JJ (1963) Optimal Replacement Policies for a Ballistic Missile. Manage Sci 9(3):358–379
Jorgenson DW, McCall JJ, Radner R (1967) Optimal Replacement Policies. Rand McNally
Kadane JB, Wolfson LJ (1998) Experiences in Elicitation. J R Stat Soc Ser D The Stat 47:3–19.
Kaplan S (1992) “Expert information” versus “expert opinions”. Another approach to the problem of eliciting/ combining/using expert knowledge in PRA. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 35:61–72
Kaufmann R, Häring I (2014) Comparison of 3D visualization options for quantitative risk analyses. In: Steenbergen RDJM, VanGelder PHAJM, Miraglia S, Vrouwenvelder ACWMT (eds) 22nd Annual Conference on European Safety and Reliability (ESREL), Amsterdam, 2013. Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon. Taylor & Francis Group, London, UK, p 758
Keeney RL, von Winterfeldt D (1991) Eliciting probabilities from experts in complex technical problems. IEEE Trans Eng Manag 38:191–201
Kelly A (1983) Maintenance planning and control. Butterworths, London
Khazraei K, Deuse J (2011) A strategic standpoint on maintenance taxonomy. J Facil Manag 9(2):96–113
Kuo W, Prasad VR (2000) An annotated overview of system-reliability optimization. Reliab IEEE Trans 49(2):176–187
Kuo W, Zhu X (2012) Importance Measures in Reliability, Risk, and Optimization: Principles and Applications. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester
Kuo W, Zuo MJ (2003) Optimal Reliability Modeling: Principles and Applications. John Wiley & Sons, New Jersey
Levitin G, Lisnianski A (2000) Optimization of imperfect preventive maintenance for multi-state systems. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 67(2):193–203
Levitt J (2003) Complete guide to preventive and predictive maintenance. Industrial Press New York
Lewis EE (1987) Introduction to reliability engineering. Wiley, New York
Lins PHC, de Almeida AT (2012) Multidimensional risk analysis of hydrogen pipelines. Int J Hydrogen Energy 37:13545–13554
Macdonald D (2004) Practical – Hazops, Trips and Alarms. Newnes – Elsevier, Oxford
Manzini R, Regattieri A, Pham H, Ferrari E (2009) Maintenance for Industrial Systems. Springer London
Márquez AC (2007) The maintenance management framework: models and methods for complex systems maintenance. Springer Science & Business Media
Martorell S, Sanchez A, Serradell V (1999) Age-dependent reliability model considering effects of maintenance and working conditions. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 64(1):19–31
Martz HF, Waller RA (1982) Bayesian Reliability Analysis. John Wiley & Sons, New York
McCall JJ (1965) Maintenance Policies for Stochastically Failing Equipment: A Survey. Manage Sci 11(5):493–524
Mobley RK, Higgins LR, Wikoff DJ (2008) Maintenance engineering handbook. McGraw-Hill
Modarres M, Kaminskiy M, Krivtsov V (1999) Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis: A Practical Guide. CRC Press
Moubray J (1997) Reliability-centered maintenance. Industrial Press Inc., New York
Nakagawa T (1984) A summary of discrete replacement policies. Eur J Oper Res 17(3):382–392
Nakagawa T (1989) A replacement policy maximizing MTTF of a system with several spare units. Reliab IEEE Trans 38:210–211
Nakajima S (1988) Introduction to TPM: total productive maintenance. Productivity Press
Nelson WB (2004) Applied life data analysis. John Wiley & Sons
Newbrough ET, Ramond A (1967) Effective maintenance management: organization, motivation, and control in industrial maintenance. McGraw-Hill, New York
Nolan DP (2011) Handbook of fire and explosion protection engineering principles for oil, gas, chemical and related facilities. Gulf Professional Publishing, Oxford
Nowlan FS, Heap HF (1978) Reliability-centered Maintenance. Dolby Access Press
NRC (1986) Safety Goals for Nuclear Power Plants. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission NUREG-0880
Nwaoha TC, Yang Z, Wang J, Bonsall S (2013) A fuzzy genetic algorithm approach for analysing maintenance cost of high risk liquefied natural gas carrier systems under uncertainty. J Mar Eng Technol 12(2):57–73
O’Connor P, Kleyner A (2012) Practical reliability engineering. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester
O’Hagan A (1998) Eliciting expert beliefs in substantial practical applications. J R Stat Soc Ser D The Stat 47:21–35
O’Hagan A, Oakley JE (2004) Probability is perfect, but we can’t elicit it perfectly. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 85:239–248
Parreiras RO, Ekel PY, Martini JSC, Palhares RM (2010) A flexible consensus scheme for multicriteria group decision making under linguistic assessments. Inf Sci (Ny) 180:1075–1089
Paté-Cornell E, Cox LA Jr (2014) Improving Risk Management: From Lame Excuses to Principled Practice. Risk Anal 34(7):1228–1239
Pham H (1999) Software reliability. John Wiley & Sons
Pinjala SK, Pintelon L, Vereecke A (2006) An empirical investigation on the relationship between business and maintenance strategies. Int J Prod Econ 104(1):214–229
Pintelon LM, Gelders LF (1992) Maintenance management decision making. Eur J Oper Res 58(3):301–317
Puente J, Pino R, Priore P, Fuente D de la (2002) A decision support system for applying failure mode and effects analysis. Int J Qual Reliab Manag 19(2):137–150
Radner R, Jorgenson DW (1963) Opportunistic Replacement of a Single Part in the Presence of Several Monitored Parts. Manage Sci 10(1):70–84
Raiffa H (1968) Decision analysis: introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty. Addison-Wesley, London
Rausand M (2011) Risk assessment. Theory, Methods, and Applications. Wiley, New Jersey
Rausand M, Høyland A (2004) System reliability theory: models, statistical methods, and applications, vol 396. John Wiley & Sons, New Jersey
Rausand M, Vatn J (2008) Reliability Centred Maintenance. Complex Syst. Maint. Handb. SE - 4. Springer London, pp 79–108
Reis ACB, Costa APCS, de Almeida AT (2009) Planning and competitiveness in maintenance management: An exploratory study in manufacturing companies. J Qual Maint Eng 15:259–270
Rosqvist T, Laakso K, Reunanen M (2009) Value-driven maintenance planning for a production plant. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 94(1):97–110
Scarf PA (1997) On the application of mathematical models in maintenance. Eur J Oper Res 99(3):493–506
Scarf PA, Cavalcante CAV (2010) Hybrid block replacement and inspection policies for a multi-component system with heterogeneous component lives. Eur J Oper Res 206(2):384–394
Scarf PA, Cavalcante CAV (2012) Modelling quality in replacement and inspection maintenance. Int J Prod Econ 135(1):372–381
Scarf PA, Cavalcante CAV, Dwight RA, Gordon P (2009) An Age-Based Inspection and Replacement Policy for Heterogeneous Components. Reliab IEEE Trans 58(4):641–648
Sherif YS (1982) Reliability analysis: Optimal inspection and maintenance schedules of failing systems. Microelectron Reliab 22:59–115
Shirose K (1992) TPM for Workshop Leaders. Productivity Press, New York
Smith DJ (2011) Reliability, Maintainability and Risk. Practical methods for engineers. BH (Elsevier), Oxford
Smith DJ, Simpson KGL (2010) Safety Critical Systems Handbook. A straightforward guide to functional safety, IEC 61508 (2010 Edition) and related standards. BH, Oxford
Stephans RA (2004) System safety for the 21st century. The update and revised edition of system safety 2000. Wiley-Interscience, New Jersey
Sutton I (2010) Process Risk and Reliability Management Operational Integrity Management, William Andrew – Elsevier, Oxford
Tajiri M, Gotoh F (1992) TPM implementation, a Japanese approach. McGraw-Hill Companies
Tariq M (2013) Risk-based flood zoning employing expected annual damages: the Chenab River case study. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 27:1957–1966
Taylor JS (1923) A Statistical Theory of Depreciation. J Am Stat Assoc 18(144):1010–1023
Terborgh GW (1949) Dynamic equipment policy. McGraw-Hill Book Co
Thangaraj V, Rizwam U (2001) Optimal replacement policies in burn-in process for an alternative repair model. Int J Inf Manag Sci 12(3):43–56
Theodore L, Dupont RR (2012) Environmental Health and Hazard Risk Assessment. Principles and Calculations. CRC Press, Boca Raton
Tian Z, Zuo MJ (2006) Redundancy allocation for multi-state systems using physical programming and genetic algorithms. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 91(9):1049–1056
Tweeddale M (2003) Managing Risk and Reliability of Process Plants. Gulf Professional Publishing. Burlington
Van Leeuwen CJ, Vermeire TG (2007) Risk Assessment of Chemicals. An introduction. Springer, Dordrecht
Vinnem J-E (2014) Offshore Risk Assessment. Principles, Modelling and Applications of QRA Studies Vol. 2, Springer-Verlag, London
Walley P (2002) Reconciling frequentist properties with the likelihood principle. J Stat Plan Inference 105:35–65
Wang H, Pham H (2006) Reliability and Optimal Maintenance. Springer-Verlag, London
Wang W (2012) An overview of the recent advances in delay-time-based maintenance modelling. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 106:165–178
Winkler RL (1981) Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources. Manage Sci 27:479–488
Winkler RL, Cummings LL (1972) On the choice of a consensus distribution in Bayesian analysis. Organ Behav Hum Perform 7:63–76
Winkler RL, Hora SC, Baca RG (1992) The quality of expert judgment elicitations. San Antonio, TX: Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses
Woodman RC (1967) Replacement policies for components that deteriorate. OR 18:267–280.
Yang Z, Bonsall S, Wang J (2008) Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Reasoning Approach for Prioritization of Failures in FMEA. Reliab IEEE Trans 57:517–528
Yoe C (2012) Principles of Risk Analysis – Decision Making under uncertainty. CRC Press, Boca Raton
Zammori F, Gabbrielli R (2012) ANP/RPN: a multi criteria evaluation of the Risk Priority Number. Qual Reliab Eng Int 28:85–104
Zheng X (1995) All opportunity-triggered replacement policy for multiple-unit systems. Reliab IEEE Trans 44(4):648–652
Zheng X, Fard N (1991) A maintenance policy for repairable systems based on opportunistic failure-rate tolerance. Reliab IEEE Trans 40(2):237–244
Zio E (1996) On the use of the analytic hierarchy process in the aggregation of expert judgments. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 53:127–138
Zio E (2007) An Introduction to the basics of Reliability and Risk Analysis. Series in Quality, Reliability and Engineering Statistics vol 1. World Scientific, Singapore
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2015 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
de Almeida, A.T., Cavalcante, C.A.V., Alencar, M.H., Ferreira, R.J.P., de Almeida-Filho, A.T., Garcez, T.V. (2015). Basic Concepts on Risk Analysis, Reliability and Maintenance. In: Multicriteria and Multiobjective Models for Risk, Reliability and Maintenance Decision Analysis. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, vol 231. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-17969-8_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-17969-8_3
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-17968-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-17969-8
eBook Packages: Business and EconomicsBusiness and Management (R0)