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Short-Term Forecasting of the Global Solar Irradiation Using the Fuzzy Modeling Technique: Case Study of Tamanrasset City, Algeria

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Progress in Clean Energy, Volume 1

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Abstract

In this chapter, the short-term forecasting of the global solar irradiation using the fuzzy modeling technique is proposed. The multi-input multi-output (MIMO) fuzzy models are used to predict the next 24 h ahead based on the mean values of the daily solar irradiation and the daily air temperature. The measured meteorological data of Tamanrasset City, Algeria (altitude, 1,362 m; latitude, 22°48 N; longitude, 05°26 E) is used, where the 2 years (2007–2008) are used for modeling and the year 2009 is used to validate the developed model. Several models are presented to test the feasibility and the performance of the fuzzy modeling technique for forecasting hourly solar irradiation in the MIMO strategy. Results obtained throughout this chapter show that the fuzzy modeling technique is suitable for a short-time forecasting of the solar irradiation.

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Abbreviations

u n :

Input vector contains n elements

f :

Nonlinear function

ŷ :

Fuzzy model’s output

i :

Time index

A j :

Matrix with fuzzy sets

ŷ k :

kth local output

c :

Number of cluster

b :

Scalar vector

a j :

jth slope vector

μ k :

Overall degrees of the premise’s membership

R k :

Rule of the fuzzy model

G m :

Daily global solar irradiation of the actual day, kJ/m2

T m :

Daily air temperature of the actual day, °C

G jh :

Hourly global solar irradiation in the hour j of the next day, kJ/m2

nRMSE:

Normalized root mean squared error, %

R 2 :

Coefficient of determination, %

MAE:

Mean absolute error, %

N :

Number of samples

MIMO:

Multi-input multi-output

MISO:

Multi-input single-output

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Acknowledgment

The authors are grateful to the reviewers for their comments and recommendations. Also we thank the department’s head of database in the National Office of Meteorology (NOM) of Algeria for providing the real dataset used throughout this chapter. This work is supported by the National Committee for Evaluation and Planning Unit of University Research, Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research, Algeria, under project number: J0200320130025.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory of Computer science, Modeling, Optimization and Electronic Systems (LIMOSE), Department of Physics, Faculty of sciences, University M’Hamed Bougara, Boumerdès, 35000, Algeria

    Lyes Saad Saoud, Fayçal Rahmoune, Victor Tourtchine & Kamel Baddari

Authors
  1. Lyes Saad Saoud
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  2. Fayçal Rahmoune
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  3. Victor Tourtchine
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  4. Kamel Baddari
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Lyes Saad Saoud .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Ontario, Oshawa, Ontario, Canada

    Ibrahim Dincer

  2. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Dokuz Eylul University, Izmir, Turkey

    C. Ozgur Colpan

  3. Department of Energy Systems Engineering, Suleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey

    Onder Kizilkan

  4. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Dokuz Eylul University, Izmir, Turkey

    M. Akif Ezan

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Saad Saoud, L., Rahmoune, F., Tourtchine, V., Baddari, K. (2015). Short-Term Forecasting of the Global Solar Irradiation Using the Fuzzy Modeling Technique: Case Study of Tamanrasset City, Algeria. In: Dincer, I., Colpan, C., Kizilkan, O., Ezan, M. (eds) Progress in Clean Energy, Volume 1. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16709-1_19

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16709-1_19

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-16708-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-16709-1

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