Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models pp 15–41Cite as

Energy Policies Influenced by Energy Systems Modelling—Case Studies in UK, Ireland, Portugal and G8

  • Chapter
  • First Online:

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Energy ((LNEN,volume 30))

Abstract

A key objective of IEA-ETSAP is to assist decision makers in robustly developing, implementing and assessing the impact of energy and climate mitigation policies. This chapter focuses on four case studies, in which there is clear evidence of a direct link between the use of MARKAL and TIMES scenario modelling activities and the resulting policy decisions. The case studies selected assess how the (i) UK MARKAL model informed the development of energy and climate mitigation policy in the UK, focusing on the Energy White Paper in 2003, the Energy White Paper in 2007 and the Climate Change Act in 2008; (ii) Irish TIMES model informed the development of climate mitigation legislation in Ireland in 2014 and Ireland’s negotiating position regarding the EU 2030 Climate Energy Package in 2014; (iii) TIMES_PT model informed climate policy in Portugal in the last 10 years and has supported the design of climate mitigation policies; (iv) IEA ETP Model informed the G8 in responding to the 2005 Gleneagles Plan of Action and has supported the work of the Major Economies Forum and Clean Energy Ministerial. This chapter collates methodologies and results from these different case studies and summarizes some key findings regarding (i) policy frameworks and goals; (ii) how policy makers have been intertwined with the modelling tool during the modelling process; (iii) the role of the economic stakeholders dialogue; (iv) main insights from the modelling exercises; (v) lessons learnt: from effective contributions to real limitations and (vi) recommendations.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Hardcover Book
USD   169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution was an independent standing body established in 1970 to advise the Queen, the Government, Parliament and the public on environmental issues.

  2. 2.

    Ironically, this calculation had to be done off model using output from MARKAL because the choice at the start had been to use the standard MARKAL model (and not MARKAL-MACRO).

  3. 3.

    Interestingly the modelling work for the 2003 EWP had also shown a similar result, but this appears to have been ignored as at the time the Government focus was on delivering carbon reductions through energy efficiency and renewables.

  4. 4.

    The economic impacts were assessed by the Economic and Social Research Institute using outputs from the Irish TIMES model as inputs to the HERMES macro-economic model (Deane et al. 2013).

  5. 5.

    The results for Ireland suggest that GHG emissions can be reduced by 33 % below 2005 levels (or 14.8 % below 1990 levels) by the year 2030 at a marginal abatement cost of €40/t CO2,eq. The impact assessment shows that the contribution from non-ETS sectors of the economy is a 21 % reduction in 2030 relative to 2005 levels. This implies that total non-ETS emissions in 2030 would be 36.4 MtCO2 and ETS emissions would account for the remaining 11.5 MtCO2.

  6. 6.

    Available online at http://www.ucc.ie/en/energypolicy/irishtimes/.

  7. 7.

    United Nations Convention on Long-Range Trans boundary Air Pollution.

  8. 8.

    Such as the Council Minister Resolution (RCM) 119/2004 of July 31st, RCM 104/2006 of August 23rd, or the RCM º 1/2008 of January 4th.

  9. 9.

    The ETP modelling framework has evolved over time, with the ETP MARKAL (later TIMES) model being supplemented with detailed demand-side models for all major end-uses in the industry, buildings and transport sectors and MARKAL/TIMES models for individual countries and regions.

  10. 10.

    Association of South East Asian Nations.

  11. 11.

    See http://www.iea.org/roadmaps/.

  12. 12.

    See http://www.iea.org/etp/tracking/.

  13. 13.

    See http://www.cleanenergyministerial.org/Our-Work/Initiatives.

References

  • AEA (2008a) MARKAL-MED model runs of long term carbon reduction targets in the UK: Phase 1. AEA Technology

    Google Scholar 

  • AEA (2008b) MARKAL-MED model runs of long term carbon reduction targets in the UK: Phase 2. AEA Technology

    Google Scholar 

  • AEA (2011) Pathways to 2050—detailed analyses. MARKAL model review and scenarios for DECC’s 4th carbon budget evidence base. AEA Technology

    Google Scholar 

  • Bergin A, Conefrey T, Fitz-Gerald JD, Kearney I, Žnuderl N (2013) The HERMES-13 macroeconomic model of the Irish economy. Working Paper No. 460, July 2013. Econ Soc Res Inst, Dublin, Ireland

    Google Scholar 

  • Cahill C, Deane P, Curtis J, Chiodi A, Fitzgerald J, Gargiulo M, Ó Gallachóir BP (2014) EU 2030 climate and energy policy framework. Preliminary assessment and implications for climate policy in Ireland. Report prepared by UCC, ESRI and E4SMA for the Department of Environment, Community and Local Government

    Google Scholar 

  • CCC (2008) Building a low-carbon economy—the UK’s contribution to tackling climate change. The Stationery Office, London

    Google Scholar 

  • CCC (2010) The fourth carbon budget. Reducing emissions through the 2020s

    Google Scholar 

  • Chiodi A, Gargiulo M, Deane JP, Lavigne D, Rout UK, Ó Gallachóir BP (2013a) Modelling the impacts of challenging 2020 non-ETS GHG emissions reduction targets on Ireland’s energy system. Energy Policy 62(0):1438–1452. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.129

  • Chiodi A, Gargiulo M, Rogan F, Deane JP, Lavigne D, Rout UK, Ó Gallachóir BP (2013b) Modelling the impacts of challenging 2050 European climate mitigation targets on Ireland’s energy system. Energy Policy 53(0):169–189. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.10.045

  • Chiodi A, Deane P, Gargiulo M, Ó Gallachóir BP (2015a) The role of bioenergy in Ireland’s low carbon future is it sustainable. J Sustain Dev Energy, Water and Environment Systems 3(2):196–216

    Google Scholar 

  • Chiodi A, Donnellan T, Breen J, Deane JP, Hanrahan K, Gargiulo M, Ó Gallachoir B (2015b) Integrating agriculture and energy to assess GHG emissions reduction—a methodological approach. Clim Policy. doi:10.1080/14693062.2014.993579

  • Deane JP, Chiodi A, Gargiulo M, Gallachóir BPÓ (2012) Soft-linking of a power systems model to an energy systems model. Energy 42(1):303–312. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2012.03.052

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deane P, Curtis J, Chiodi A, Gargiulo M, Rogan F, Dineen D, Glynn J, Fitzgerald J, Ó Gallachóir BP (2013) Low Carbon Energy Roadmap for Ireland. Technical support on developing low carbon sector roadmaps for Ireland. Report prepared by UCC, ESRI and E4SMA for the Department of Environment, Community and Local Government

    Google Scholar 

  • DECC (2009) Climate Change Act 2008 impact assessment

    Google Scholar 

  • DECC (2012) DECC science and innovation strategy 2012. London

    Google Scholar 

  • DECLG (2013) General scheme of a climate action and low carbon development bill (CA&LCD Bill) 2013

    Google Scholar 

  • DTI (2003a) Energy white paper. Our energy future—creating a low carbon economy. Department of Trade and Industry, London

    Google Scholar 

  • DTI (2003b) Options for a low carbon future. Economics Paper No. 4. Department of Trade and Industry, London

    Google Scholar 

  • DTI (2007a) Meeting the energy challenge. Department of Trade and Industry, London

    Google Scholar 

  • DTI (2007b) The UK MARKAL energy model in the 2007 energy white paper. Department of Trade and Industry, London

    Google Scholar 

  • DTI (n.d.) White paper modelling—use of the MARKAL energy model. Available from www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/48122/file21348.pdf. Department of Trade and Industry, London

  • EC (2014a) COM (2014) 15 final. A policy framework for climate and energy in the period from 2020 to 2030. Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions. Available from http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/2030/docs/com_2014_15_en.pdf

  • EC (2014b) SWD (2014) 15 Commission Staff Working Document. Impact assessment. A policy framework for climate and energy in the period from 2020 up to 2030

    Google Scholar 

  • Ferreira F, Seixas J, Barroso J, Tente H, Monjardino J, Dias L, Gomes P, Miranda A, Monteiro A, Ferreira J, Martins H, Ribeiro I, Fernandes P (2014) National Strategy for air pollution 2020—projections and scenarios for 2020. [Estratégia Nacional para o Ar 2014–2020—Cenários e Projeções para 2020] Study for the portuguese environmental agency. Lasting values, Lda, CENSE—FCT of the New University of Lisbon and CESAM & Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, Lisbon (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Finnis W (1980) Phase II—final report of MARKAL Studies for the United Kingdom: report of the IEA energy systems analysis project

    Google Scholar 

  • Fortes P, Pereira R, Pereira A, Seixas J (2014) Integrated technological-economic modeling platform for energy and climate policy analysis. Energy 73(0):716–730. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.06.075

  • Fortes P, Alvarenga A, Seixas S, Rodrigues S (2015) Long term energy scenarios: bridging the gap between socio-economic storylines and energy Modeling. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 91:161–178. doi:j.techfore.2014.02.006

  • G8 (2005) Gleneagles communiqué. G8 Gleneagles

    Google Scholar 

  • Glynn J, Chiodi A, Gargiulo M, Deane JP, Bazilian M, Gallachóir BÓ (2014) Energy security analysis: the case of constrained oil supply for Ireland. Energy Policy 66(0):312–325. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.11.043

  • Gouveia JP, Dias L, Fortes P, Seixas J (2012a) TIMES_PT: integrated energy system modeling. In: Proceedings of the 1st Int’l workshop on information technology for energy applications (IT4ENERGY’2012)—CEUR workshop proceedings, Lisbon, Portugal, 6–7 September 2012

    Google Scholar 

  • Gouveia JP, Fortes P, Seixas J (2012b) Projections of energy services demand for residential buildings: Insights from a bottom-up methodology. Energy 47(1):430–442. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.09.042

  • Great Britain (2008) Climate change act 2008: Elizabeth II. The Stationery Office, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Great Britain House of Lords (2005) The economics of climate change, vol II: evidence. HL (2005–06, 12-II)

    Google Scholar 

  • Her Majesty’s Government (2009) The low carbon transition plan: national strategy for climate and energy. Analytical Annex

    Google Scholar 

  • Her Majesty’s Government (2011) The carbon plan: delivering our low carbon future

    Google Scholar 

  • IEA-ETSAP (2001) ETSAP to have key role in IEA energy technology perspectives. ETSAP News, vol 7

    Google Scholar 

  • IEA (2004) Prospects for CO2 capture and storage. International Energy Agency, OECD Energy, Paris

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • IEA (2005) Prospects for hydrogen and fuel cells. International Energy Agency, OECD Energy, Paris

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • IEA (2006a) Energy technology perspectives 2006. Scenarios and strategies to 2050. International Energy Agency, OECD Energy, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • IEA (2006b) Toward a clean, clever and competitive energy future. IEA Report to G8 Summit in St. Petersburg. International Energy Agency, OECD Energy, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • IEA (2008) Energy technology perspectives 2008. Scenarios and strategies to 2050. International Energy Agency, OECD Energy, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • IEA (2010) Energy Technology perspectives. Scenarios and strategies to 2050. International Energy Agency, OECD Energy, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • IEA (2012) Energy technology perspectives. Pathways to a Clean Energy System. International Energy Agency, OECD Energy, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • IEA (2014) Energy technology perspectives. Harnessing electricity’s potential. International Energy Agency, OECD Energy, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • IEEP (2005) Evaluation of the 22nd report of the royal commission on environmental pollution, energy: the changing climate. Final report. Institute for European Environmental Policy

    Google Scholar 

  • NTUA (2011) The PRIMES energy system model. Summary description. European Commission Joule-III Programme. Athens. Available from http://www.e3mlab.ntua.gr/manuals/PRIMsd.pdf. Accessed March 2014

  • Ó Gallachóir BP, Chiodi A, Deane P (2014) Renewable electricity is not enough: Increasing renewable heat and transport. In: Proceedings of energy Ireland 2014 Croke Park, 18th–19th June, Dublin

    Google Scholar 

  • Ó Gallachóir BP, Chiodi A, Gargiulo M, Deane P, Lavigne D, Rout UK (2012) Irish TIMES energy systems model. EPA climate change research programme 2007–2013. Report Series No. 24. UCC, Johnstown Castle, Co.Wexford. http://erc.epa.ie/safer/reports

  • Pearson P, Watson J (2012) UK Energy Policy 1980–2010: a history and lessons to be learnt

    Google Scholar 

  • Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (2000) Energy—the changing climate: Twenty-second report. The Stationery Office, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Seixas J, Fortes P (2014) Evaluation of the impact of CO2 taxes in the Portuguese energy system using TIMES_PT model, Annex III [Avaliação do impacto da tributação do CO2 no sistema energético em Portugal, usando o modelo TIMES_PT (Anexo III)]. Study for the Green Tax Reform Commission. CENSE, FCT of New University of Lisbon, Lisbon, p 39

    Google Scholar 

  • Seixas J, Simões S, Cleto J, Fortes P, Barroso J, Alves B, Dinis R, Pisco P, Faria P, Finote S (2008) Relatório Final: Portugal Clima 2020—Avaliação do Impacto da Proposta Energia-Clima da Comissão Europeia para Portugal [Final report: Portugal climate 2020—impact evaluation of the EU energy-climate policy package for Portugal]. Study for the Executive Committe of the Climate Change Commission and for the Portuguese Environment Agency. E-value, SA and FCT of New University of Lisbon, Lisbon (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Seixas J, Barroso J, Dias L, Dinis R, Alves B, Pisco F (2009) PTEN2020—Emissões de Gases Acidificantes e Partículas em 2020—Revisão do protocolo de Gotemburgo da CPATLD e da Diretiva Tetos de Emissão Nacionais [National Emission Celings Program 2020- Emissions of acidifying gaases and particles in 2020—Review of the CLRTAP Gothenburg protocol and national emission ceilings directive]. Study for the Portuguese Environment Agency. E-value, SA and FCT of New University of Lisbon (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Seixas J, Simões S, Fortes P, Dias L, Gouveia J, Alves B, Mauricio B (2010) New Energy Technologies: RoadMap Portugal 2050—analysis of new national energy technologies & impact scenarios on the national energy system—D3: Competitiveness Assessment of New Energy Technologies, Portuguese Innovation Fund for Renewable Energy of the Ministry of Economy, Lisbon, pp 1–88. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Seixas J, Fortes P, Dias L, Dinis R, Alves B, Gouveia J, Simões S (2012) Low Carbon RoadMap—Portugal 2050—Energy and Waste Greenhouse emissions, [Roteiro Nacional de Baixo Carbono—Portugal 2050—Modelação de gases com efeito estufa, Energia e Resíduos. Study for the Executive Committee of the Climate Change Commission. E-value, SA and FCT-UNL of New University of Lisbon, Lisbon (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Seixas J, Fortes P, Dias L, Barroso J, MArtinho S, Gouveia J, Ferreira F, Gomes P, Tente H, Baptista P (2014) GHG Emission scenarios and technological options for decarbonization in Portugal in 2020 and 2030 [Cenários de emissões de GEE e opções tecnológicas de descarbonização para Portugal em 2020 e 2030]. Study for the Portuguese Environmental Agency. Lasting values, Lda and CENSE, FCT of New University of Lisbon. Lisbon, pp 1–53 (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Simões S, Cleto J, Fortes P, Seixas J, Huppes G (2008) Cost of energy and environmental policy in Portuguese CO2 abatement—scenario analysis to 2020. Energy Policy 36(9):3598–3611. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.06.004

  • Simões S, Seixas J, Fortes P, Huppes G (2013) The savings of energy saving: interactions between energy supply and demand-side options—quantification for Portugal. Energy Eff 7(2):179–201. doi:10.1007/s12053-013-9217-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simões S, Fortes P, Seixas J, Huppes G (2014) Effects of exogenous assumptions in GHG emissions models—A 2020 scenario study for Portugal using the Times model. Technol Forecast and Soc. In Press October 2014. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2014.09.016  

  • Strachan N, Kannan R, Pye S (2007) Final report on DTI-DEFRA scenarios and sensitivities, using the UK MARKAL and MARKAL-MACRO energy system models. Policy Studies Institute and UK Energy Research Centre, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Taylor PG, Upham P, McDowall W, Christopherson D (2014) Energy model, boundary object and societal lens: 35 years of the MARKAL model in the UK. Energy Res Soc Sci 4(0):32–41. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2014.08.007

  • USDOE (2010) Critical materials strategy, Office of Policy and International Affairs

    Google Scholar 

  • USDOE (2011) Critical materials strategy, Office of Policy and International Affairs

    Google Scholar 

  • Usher W, Strachan N (2010) UK MARKAL modelling—examining decarbonisation pathways in the 2020s on the way to meeting the 2050 emissions target. Final report for the committee on climate change

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Energy Policy and Modelling Group, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland

    Alessandro Chiodi & Brian Ó Gallachóir

  2. Centre for Integrated Energy Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK

    Peter G. Taylor

  3. CENSE, Faculdade Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal

    Júlia Seixas, Sofia Simões, Patrícia Fortes, João P. Gouveia & Luís Dias

Authors
  1. Alessandro Chiodi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Peter G. Taylor
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Júlia Seixas
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Sofia Simões
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Patrícia Fortes
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. João P. Gouveia
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Luís Dias
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Brian Ó Gallachóir
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Alessandro Chiodi .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis, Center for Renewable Energy Sources, Pikermi, Attiki, Greece

    George Giannakidis

  2. Eneris Environment Energy Consultan, Madrid, Spain

    Maryse Labriet

  3. University College Cork, Cork, Ireland

    Brian Ó Gallachóir

  4. ETSAP Project Head, ASATREM, Rome, Italy

    GianCarlo Tosato

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2015 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Chiodi, A. et al. (2015). Energy Policies Influenced by Energy Systems Modelling—Case Studies in UK, Ireland, Portugal and G8. In: Giannakidis, G., Labriet, M., Ó Gallachóir, B., Tosato, G. (eds) Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models. Lecture Notes in Energy, vol 30. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16540-0_2

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16540-0_2

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-16539-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-16540-0

  • eBook Packages: EnergyEnergy (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation