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Economic Impacts of Future Changes in the Energy System—Global Perspectives

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Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Energy ((LNEN,volume 30))

Abstract

In a climate constrained future, hybrid energy-economy model coupling gives additional insight into interregional competition, trade, industrial delocalisation and overall macroeconomic consequences of decarbonising the energy system. Decarbonising the energy system is critical in mitigating climate change. This chapter summarises modelling methodologies developed in the ETSAP community to assess economic impacts of decarbonising energy systems at a global level. The next chapter of this book focuses on a national perspective. The range of economic impacts is regionally dependent upon the stage of economic development, the level of industrialisation, energy intensity of exports, and competition effects due to rates of relative decarbonisation. Developed nation’s decarbonisation targets are estimated to result in a manageable GDP loss in the region of 2 % by 2050. Energy intensive export driven developing countries such as China and India, and fossil fuel exporting nations can expect significantly higher GDP loss of up to 5 % GDP per year by mid-century.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    MARKAL—MARKet ALocation model.

  2. 2.

    TIMES—The Integrated MARKAL-Efom System.

  3. 3.

    www.climacap.org.

  4. 4.

    In the modelling approach applied in this study the carbon tax revenues has been recycled to households.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland

    James Glynn & Brian Ó Gallachóir

  2. CENSE, Faculdade Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal

    Patrícia Fortes

  3. Department of Business Administration, Luleå University of Technology, Luleå, Sweden

    Anna Krook-Riekkola

  4. Eneris Environment Energy Consultants, Madrid, Spain

    Maryse Labriet

  5. Ecole Polytechnique de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland

    Marc Vielle

  6. Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen, Switzerland

    Socrates Kypreos

  7. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo, Finland

    Antti Lehtilä

  8. Department of Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark

    Peggy Mischke & Kenneth Karlsson

  9. National Institute of Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

    Hancheng Dai

  10. Energy Engineering Economic Environment Systems Modelling and Analysis (E4SMA s.r.l.), Turin, Italy

    Maurizio Gargiulo

  11. Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway

    Per Ivar Helgesen

  12. Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), Policy Studies Department, Petten/Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Tom Kober

  13. Cambridge Econometrics, Cambridge, UK

    Phil Summerton

  14. Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

    Bruno Merven

  15. Centre De Mathématicues Appliquèes, MINES ParisTech, Paris, France

    Sandrine Selosse

  16. Energy Institute, University College London, London, England

    Neil Strachan

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  1. James Glynn
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  18. Brian Ó Gallachóir
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Correspondence to James Glynn .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis, Center for Renewable Energy Sources, Pikermi, Attiki, Greece

    George Giannakidis

  2. Eneris Environment Energy Consultan, Madrid, Spain

    Maryse Labriet

  3. University College Cork, Cork, Ireland

    Brian Ó Gallachóir

  4. ETSAP Project Head, ASATREM, Rome, Italy

    GianCarlo Tosato

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Glynn, J. et al. (2015). Economic Impacts of Future Changes in the Energy System—Global Perspectives. In: Giannakidis, G., Labriet, M., Ó Gallachóir, B., Tosato, G. (eds) Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models. Lecture Notes in Energy, vol 30. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16540-0_19

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