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Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation of Oil Pollution Problems pp 99–126Cite as

Operational Oil Spill Modelling: From Science to Engineering Applications in the Presence of Uncertainty

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Part of the book series: The Reacting Atmosphere ((REAT,volume 2))

Abstract

Quantifying uncertainties in real-time operational oil spill forecasts remains an outstanding problem, but one that should be solvable with present science and technology. Uncertainties arise from the salient characteristics of oil spill models, hydrodynamic models, and wind forecast systems, which are affected by choices of modelling parameters. Presented and discussed are: (1) a systems-level approach for producing a range of oil spill forecasts, (2) a methodology for integrating probability estimates within oil spill models, and (3) a multi-model system for updating forecasts. These technologies provide the next steps for the efficient operational modelling required for real-time mitigation and crisis management for oil spills at sea.

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Acknowledgments

The work of X. Hou and B.R. Hodges is based upon work supported by the Research and Development program of the Texas General Land Office Oil Spill Prevention and Response Division under Grant No. 13-439-000-7898 and in part by a grant from BP/The Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative. A. Orfila and J.M. Sayol would like to thank the support from MICINN through Project CGL2011-22964. J.M. Sayol is supported by the PhD CSIC-JAE program cofunded by the European Social Fund (ESF) and CSIC.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, USA

    Ben R. Hodges & Xianlong Hou

  2. Marine Technology and Operational Oceanography Department, Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies (CSIC-UIB), Mallorca, Spain

    Alejandro Orfila & Juan M. Sayol

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  1. Ben R. Hodges
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  2. Alejandro Orfila
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  3. Juan M. Sayol
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  4. Xianlong Hou
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Correspondence to Ben R. Hodges .

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  1. Fachbereich C, Chair of Applied Mathematics / Numerical Analysis, Bergische Universität Wuppertal, Wuppertal, Germany

    Matthias Ehrhardt

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Hodges, B.R., Orfila, A., Sayol, J.M., Hou, X. (2015). Operational Oil Spill Modelling: From Science to Engineering Applications in the Presence of Uncertainty. In: Ehrhardt, M. (eds) Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation of Oil Pollution Problems. The Reacting Atmosphere, vol 2. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16459-5_5

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