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Steps in Seismic Risk Mapping for Romania Capital City

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Part of the Springer Proceedings in Physics book series (SPPHY,volume 163)


Bucharest, capital of Romania, is one of the most seismically vulnerable cities in Europe. The earthquakes affecting the city have their origin in the Vrancea intermediate-depth source. In the last century, major earthquakes (November 10, 1940, Mw = 7.7; March 4, 1977, Mw = 7.4; August 30, 1986, Mw = 7.1; May 30, 1990, Mw = 6.9) produced significant effects for this area. This study’s objective is to highlight the seismic risk of Bucharest nowadays by estimating the possible building and human losses, for relevant scenarios—based on real data and neodeterministic approach. The building loss estimates were obtained through the Improved Displacement Coefficient Analytical Method. In order to provide a balanced input that can also reflect different damage states in the risk analysis, for the hazard data we used real data from seismic stations for August 30, 1986 and May 30, 1990 earthquakes and microzonation map for the maximum possible earthquake that can be produced in Vrancea intermediate-depth source (\(\mathrm{{M}}_\mathrm{{w}}\) = 7.8 and depth 150 km). The spectral content was used for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.3 and 1 seconds. For the vulnerability assessment, data obtained from the “Danube Cross-Border system for Earthquakes Alert” (DACEA) Project and a database with classification of the buildings in 1999 were used. The analysis is performed at sector level (6 in total). We computed the probability of damage for the buildings and human casualties in terms of different injury types with SELENA Software.


  • Peak Ground Acceleration
  • Damage State
  • Seismic Risk
  • Spectral Acceleration
  • Fragility Curve

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This study was made in the framework of the project BIGSEES: “BrInging the Gap between Seismology and Earthquake Engineering: from the Seismicity of Romania towards a refined implementation of seismic action EN1998-1 in earthquake resistant design of buildings” 72/2012, Poseizon PN 09–30 03 06 and PhD projects of Elena Florinela Manea and Dragos Toma-Danila.

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Correspondence to E. F. Manea .

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Manea, E.F., Toma-Danila, D., Cioflan, C.O., Marmureanu, G. (2015). Steps in Seismic Risk Mapping for Romania Capital City. In: Aneva, B., Kouteva-Guentcheva, M. (eds) Nonlinear Mathematical Physics and Natural Hazards. Springer Proceedings in Physics, vol 163. Springer, Cham.

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