A New Probabilistic Shift Away from Seismic Hazard Reality in Italy?

  • A. Nekrasova
  • A. PeresanEmail author
  • V. G. Kossobokov
  • G. F. Panza
Conference paper
Part of the Springer Proceedings in Physics book series (SPPHY, volume 163)


Objective testing is a key issue in the process of revision and improvement of seismic hazard assessments. Therefore we continue the rigorous comparative analysis of past and newly available hazard maps for the territory of Italy against the seismic activity observed in reality. The final Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) results and the most recent version of Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project maps, along with the reference hazard maps for the Italian seismic code, all obtained by probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), are cross-compared to the three ground shaking maps based on the duly physically and mathematically rooted neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA). These eight hazard maps for Italy are tested against the available data on ground shaking. The results of comparison between predicted macroseismic intensities and those reported for past earthquakes (in the time interval 1000–2014) show that models provide rather conservative estimates, which tend to over-estimate seismic hazard at the ground shaking levels below the MCS intensity IX. Only exception is represented by the neo-deterministic maps associated with a fixed return period of 475 or 2475 years, which provide a better fit to observations, at the cost of model consistent 10 % or 2 % cases of exceedance respectively. In terms of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness of fit criterion, although all of the eight hazard maps differ significantly from the distribution of the observed ground shaking reported in the available Italian databases, the NDSHA approach appears to outscore significantly the PSHA one.


Return Period Seismic Hazard Peak Ground Acceleration Seismic Hazard Assessment Empirical Distribution Function 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.



This paper was completed during the visit of A.K. Nekrasova at the Structure and Nonlinear Dynamics of the Earth (SAND) Group of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Miramare—Trieste, Italy. AKN and VGK acknowledge the support from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR grants \({\mathcal {N}}\) o 13-05-91167 and \({\mathcal {N}}\) o 14-05-92691).


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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • A. Nekrasova
    • 1
    • 2
  • A. Peresan
    • 2
    • 3
    • 5
    Email author
  • V. G. Kossobokov
    • 1
    • 2
    • 4
    • 5
  • G. F. Panza
    • 2
    • 3
    • 5
    • 6
  1. 1.Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical GeophysicsRussian Academy of SciencesMoscowRussian Federation
  2. 2.The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, SAND GroupTriesteItaly
  3. 3.Department of Mathematics and GeosciencesUniversity of TriesteTriesteItaly
  4. 4.Institut de Physique du Globe de ParisParisFrance
  5. 5.International Seismic Safety Organization (ISSO)ArsitaItaly
  6. 6.Institute of GeophysicsChina Earthquake AdministrationBeijingPeople’s Republic of China

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