Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Progress in Earth System Science: What Does It Take to Make Our Ideas Clear?

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Towards an Interdisciplinary Approach in Earth System Science

Part of the book series: Springer Earth System Sciences ((SPRINGEREARTH))

  • 789 Accesses

Abstract

To describe the progress in Earth System Science, a conceptual framework is proposed which includes hypothesis testing, the formulation of models with different complexity as well as expressing discoveries in terms of metaphors. The later approach is demonstrated by the conveyor belt concept in oceanography which influenced the discussion about abrupt climate changes where the ocean circulation may be involved. It is argued that the combination of different methodologies/complexities and independent results is necessary to prevent over-simplistic views in each discipline of Earth System Science. Emphasis is given on typical steps to obtain new ideas for a new discovery. Examples for over-simplistic views are mentioned for past climate information from proxy data. The recorder system of the proxy has to be taken into account, otherwise the climate information can be misinterpreted. It is concluded that in the field of Earth System Science, basic knowledge and true collaborative problem solving is necessary to make scientists aware of the underlying principles, the limitations and open questions. This is furthermore necessary to develop and sharpen our ideas about the complex Earth System.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
eBook
USD 16.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 16.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    These 3 examples shall be explored in more detail here. Laepple et al. (2011) investigate the phase relation of air temperatures in Antarctica with insolation. Ignoring the seasonal bias of the recorder system (more local precipitation in winter than in summer) one might conclude that the record is nearly in phase with Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Taking into account the seasonal bias, one finds however that the local insolation in the Southern Hemisphere may be a more suitable explanation of these records on orbital timescales, basically the opposite than the original interpretation of the records. Lohmann et al. (2013b) investigate the link between the large-scale climate with a simulated speleothem climate archive. Mixing processes in the soil and karst above the cave represent a natural low-pass filter of the speleothem climate archive. Stalagmite stable oxygen isotope values can furthermore lag the regional surface climate by several years, indicating that the proxy system provides a lagged and smoothed recorder which is difficult to reconcile with a direct climate-proxy relationship. Hesse et al. (2014) use a reaction-diffusion model for calcification in order to quantify the effects of different physical, chemical and biological processes on stable isotope carbon isotopes of benthic foraminiferal shells. It is shown that stable isotope carbon isotopes of the shells are not only strongly affected by changes in the stable isotope carbon isotope composition in the water, but also on temperature, respiration rate and pH. The later effects can be even larger than the first one for glacial-interglacial changes which has huge consequences for the interpretation of paleoceanographic records.

  2. 2.

    Interestingly, there are people in and around Earth System Science assuming a more ‘sceptical’ point of view. Those are convinced that the rapid climate change theory is only a myth, a way of turning attention of media and society to scientific research (e.g., Singer 2007). Global climate models often appear as a cornerstone of this disagreement. However, the majority of these scepticists do not have a background in climate science and have not published papers in the peer-review process (e.g., Lee and Bero 2006). This process is important to overcome a subjective view and a way to distinguish between an idea seemingly clear and really being so. There are indications for parallels between the climate change debate and earlier controversies over tobacco smoking, acid rain and the hole in the ozone layer (Oreskes and Conway 2010) where spreading doubt and confusion was the basic strategy of those opposing action in each case. The typical structure of arguments is easily identified in this debate (McCright and Dunlap 2000).

  3. 3.

    Born, Pauli, Heisenberg and others claimed the double nature of all corpuscles (corpuscular and wave character), giving the final solution in the statistical quantum theory (e.g., Bohr 1928). The strength of this theory is that it provides a theoretically complete description of a system involving only statistical quantities like probabilities concerning the measurable quantities of this system. Einstein argued that this did not satisfy a theory, because the complete description of any individual real situation existed irrespective of any act of observation or substantiation (Einstein 1949) and favored a non-statistical interpretation.

References

  • Berger A (1988) Milankovitch theory and climate. Rev Geophys 26(4):624–657

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bohr N (1928) The quantum postulate and the recent development of atomic theory. Nature 121:580–590

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bornholdt S, Jensen MH, Sneppen K (2011) Emergence and decline of scientific paradigms. Phys Rev Lett 106:058701

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Broecker WS (1991) The great ocean conveyor. Oceanography 4(2):79–89

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brüning R, Lohmann G (1999) Charles S. Peirce on creative metaphor: a case study of the conveyor belt metaphor in oceanography. Found Sci 4(4):389–403 (Special issue for scientific discovery and creativity)

    Google Scholar 

  • Bryan F (1986) High latitude salinity effects and inter-hemispheric thermohaline circulations. Nature 323:301–304

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Claussen M, Mysak LA, Weaver AJ, Crucifix M, Fichefet T, Loutre M-F, Weber SL, Alcamo J, Alexeev VA, Berger A, Calov R, Ganopolski A, Goosse H, Lohmann G, Lunkeit F, Mokhov II, Petoukhov V, Stone P, Wang Z (2002) Earth system models of intermediate complexity: closing the gap in the spectrum of climate system models. Clim Dyn 18:579–586

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dansgaard W, Johnsen SJ, Clausen HB, Dahl-Jensen D, Gundestrup N, Hammer CU, Oeschger H (1984) North Atlantic climatic oscillations revealed by deep Greenland ice cores. In: Hansen JE, Takahashi T (eds) Climate processes and climate sensitivity. Geophysical monograph series, vol 29. AGU, Washington, DC, pp 288–298

    Google Scholar 

  • Descartes R (1644) Principia philosophiae. English edition: Principles of Philosophy (trans: Rodger V, Miller RP (Reprint ed)). Reidel, Dordrecht. ISBN 90-277-1451-7

    Google Scholar 

  • Einstein A (1905) Ãœber die von der molekularkinetischen Theorie der Wärme geforderte Bewegung von in ruhenden Flüssigkeiten suspendierten Teilchen. Ann Phys 322(8):549–560

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Einstein A (1949) Philosopher-scientist. The library of living philosophers series. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Frankignoul C, Hasselmann K (1977) Stochastic climate models, part II. Application to sea-surface temperature anomalies and thermocline variability. Tellus 29(289):1977

    Google Scholar 

  • Ganopolski A, Rahmstorf S (2001) Rapid changes of glacial climate simulated in a coupled climate model. Nature 409:153–158

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gershenfeld N (2003) The nature of mathematical modeling. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 344 pp

    Google Scholar 

  • Grosfeld K, Lohmann G, Wolf-Gladrow D, Ladstätter-Weißenmayer A, Notholt J, Unnithan V, Wegner A (2013) The structural and educational concept in an interdisciplinary research school for earth system science. In: Lohmann G, Grosfeld K, Wolf-Gladrow D, Unnithan V, Notholt J, Wegner A (eds) Earth system science: bridging the gaps between disciplines perspectives from a multi-disciplinary Helmholtz Research School. Springer briefs in earth system sciences, pp 3–8. Springer, Heidelberg, vol 138. p 61 illus., 52 in color. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-32235-8. ISBN 978-3-642-32234-1

  • Hasselmann K (1976) Stochastic climate models. Part I: theory. Tellus 28:473–485

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hesse T, Wolf-Gladrow D, Lohmann G, Bijmaa J, Mackensen A, Zeebe RE (2014) Modelling d13C in benthic foraminifera: insights from model sensitivity experiments. Mar Micropaleontol 112:50–61. doi: 10.1016/j.marmicro.2014.08.001

  • Holton JR, Hakim GJ (2012) An introduction to dynamic meteorology, 5th edn. Academic Press, Waltham. ISBN-13: 978-0123848666; ISBN-10: 0123848660

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. 2007. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Contribution of working group I to the 4th assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 996

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Contribution of working group I to the 5th assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 1535. doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324

  • Kuhn TS (1962) The Structure of scientific revolutions, 1st edn, 4th edn 2012. University of Chicago Press, Chicago. ISBN 9780226458113

    Google Scholar 

  • Kwasniok F, Lohmann G (2009) Deriving dynamical models from paleoclimatic records: application to glacial millennial-scale climate variability. Phys Rev E 80(6):066104. doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.80.066104

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Laepple T, Werner M, Lohmann G (2011) Synchronicity of Antarctic temperatures and local solar insolation on orbital time-scales. Nature 471:91–94. doi:10.1038/nature09825

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee K, Bero L (2006) Ethics: increasing accountability. What authors, editors and reviewers should do to improve peer review. Nature. doi:10.1038/nature05007

  • Lemke P (1977) Stochastic climate models, part 3, application to zonally averaged energy balance models. Tellus 29:385–392

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu Z, Zhua J, Rosenthal Y, Zhang X, Otto-Bliesner B, Timmermann A, Smith RS, Lohmann G, Zheng W, Timm OE (2014) The holocene temperature conundrum. PNAS 111(34):E3501–E3505. doi:10.1073/pnas.1407229111

  • Lohmann G, Schneider J (1999) Dynamics and predictability of Stommel’s box model: a phase space perspective with implications for decadal climate. Tellus A 51(2):326–336

    Google Scholar 

  • Lohmann G, Grosfeld K, Wolf-Gladrow D, Unnithan V, Notholt J, Wegner A (2013a) General aspects of earth system science. In: Lohmann G, Grosfeld K, Wolf-Gladrow D, Unnithan V, Notholt J, Wegner A (eds) Earth system science: bridging the gaps between disciplines perspectives from a multi-disciplinary Helmholtz Research School. Springer Briefs in earth system sciences, p 61 illus., 52 in color, vol 138. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 1–3. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-32235-8. ISBN 978-3-642-32234-1

  • Lohmann G, Wackerbarth A, Langebroek P, Werner M, Fohlmeister J, Scholz D, Mangini A (2013b) Simulated European stalagmite record and its relation to a quasi-decadal climate mode. Clim Past 9:89–98. doi:10.5194/cp-9-89-2013

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lohmann G, Pfeiffer M, Laepple T, Leduc G, Kim J-H (2013c) A model-data comparison of the Holocene global sea surface temperature evolution. Clim Past 9:1807–1839. doi:10.5194/cp-9-1807-2013

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lorenz S, Lohmann G (2004) Acceleration technique for Milankovitch typeforcing in a coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation model: method and application for the Holocene. Clim Dyn 23(7–8):727–743. doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0469-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Manduca CA, Kastens KA (2012) Fostering knowledge integration in geoscience education. Geoscience and geoscientists: uniquely equipped to study earth. Geol Soc Am Spec Pap 486:1–12. doi:10.1130/2012.2486(01

    Google Scholar 

  • Marshall J, Plumb RA (2007) Atmosphere, ocean and climate dynamics: an introductory text. Int Geophys 93:345 (ISBN 0125586914)

    Google Scholar 

  • McGuffie K, Henderson-Sellers A (2014) The climate modelling primer, 4 rev edn, p 480. ISBN 111994337X

    Google Scholar 

  • McCright AM, Dunlap RE (2000) Challenging global warming as a social problem: an analysis of the conservative movement’s counter-claims. Soc Probl 47(4):499–522. doi:10.2307/3097132

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meggers H, Buschmann M, Grosfeld K, Klebe S (2015) The educational program of the Earth System Science Research School (ESSReS), In: Lohmann G, Meggers H, Unnithan V, Wolf-Gladrow D, Notholt J, Bracher A (eds) Towards an interdisciplinary approach in Earth System Science, Springer, Heidelberg, Germany, pp 9–17. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-13865-7_2

  • Mori H, Fujisaka H, Shigematsu H (1974) A new expansion of the master equation. Prog Theoret Phys 51(1):109–122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oreskes N, Conway E (2010) Merchants of doubt: how a handful of scientists obscured the truth on issues from tobacco smoke to global warming, 1st edn. Bloomsbury Press, London. ISBN 978-1-59691-610-4

    Google Scholar 

  • Oeschger H, Beer J, Siegenthaler U, Stauffer B, Dansgaard W, Langway CC (1984) Late glacial climate history from ice cores. In: JE Hansen, T Takahashi (eds) Climate processes and climate sensitivity. Geophysical monograph series, vol 29. AGU, Washington, DC, pp 299–306

    Google Scholar 

  • Peirce CS (1878) How to make our ideas clear. Popul Sci Mon 12:286–302

    Google Scholar 

  • Peirce CS (1974) Collected papers of Charles Sanders Pierce. In: Hartshorne C, Weiss P (eds), vol I–VI. Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Peixoto JP, Oort AH (1992) Physics of climate. American Institute of Physics, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Rooth C (1982) Hydrology and ocean circulation. Prog Oceanog 11:131–149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Russill C, Nyssa Z (2009) The tipping point trend in climate change communication. Glob Environ Change 19(3):336–344

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saltzman B (2002) Dynamical paleoclimatology—a generalized theory of global climate change. Academic Press, San Diego p 354

    Google Scholar 

  • Salzmann U, Dolan AM, Haywood AM, Chan W-L, Hill DJ, Abe-Ouchi A, Otto-Bliesner B, Bragg F, Chandler MA, Contoux C, Jost A, Kamae Y, Lohmann G, Lunt DJ, Pickering SJ, Pound MJ, Ramstein G, Rosenbloom NA, Sohl L, Stepanek C, Ueda H, Zhang Z (2013) How well do models reproduce warm terrestrial climates of the Pliocene? Nat Clim Change. doi:10.1038/nclimate2008

    Google Scholar 

  • Singer SF (2007) Climate policy from Rio to Kyoto: a political issue for 2000- and beyond. Essays in public policy, no. 102. Stanford University: Hoover Institution, Stanford, p 49. ISBN 978-0-8179-4372-1

    Google Scholar 

  • Stocker TF, Johnsen SJ (2003) A minimum thermodynamic model for the bipolar seesaw. Paleoceanography 18:1087. doi:10.1029/2003PA000920,4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stommel H (1961) Thermohaline convection with two stable regimes of flow. Tellus 13:224–230

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tewksbury BJ, Manduca CA, Mogk DW, Macdonald RH (2013) Geoscience education for the Anthropocene. Geol Soc Am Spec Pap 501:189–201. doi:10.1130/2013.2501(08)

  • Timmermann A, Latif M, Voss R, Grötzner A (1998) Northern hemispheric interdecadal variability: a coupled air-sea mode. J Clim 11:1906–1931

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Valdes P (2011) Built for stability. Nat Geosci 4:414–416. doi:10.1038/ngeo1200

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weyl H (1927) Philosophie der Mathematik und Naturwissenschaft. Oldenbourg Verlag, München

    Google Scholar 

  • Zwanzig R (1960) Ensemble method in the theory of irreversibility. J Chem Phys 33:1338

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Lohmann G, Knorr G, Purcell C (2014) Control of rapid glacial climate shifts by variations in intermediate ice-sheet volume. Nature 512:290–294. doi:10.1038/nature13592

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bussestr. 24, 27570, Bremerhaven, Germany

    Gerrit Lohmann

Authors
  1. Gerrit Lohmann
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Gerrit Lohmann .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany

    Gerrit Lohmann

  2. Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany

    Helge Meggers

  3. School of Engineering and Science, Jacobs University, Bremen, Bremen, Germany

    Vikram Unnithan

  4. Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany

    Dieter Wolf-Gladrow

  5. Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany

    Justus Notholt

  6. Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany

    Astrid Bracher

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2015 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Lohmann, G. (2015). Progress in Earth System Science: What Does It Take to Make Our Ideas Clear?. In: Lohmann, G., Meggers, H., Unnithan, V., Wolf-Gladrow, D., Notholt, J., Bracher, A. (eds) Towards an Interdisciplinary Approach in Earth System Science. Springer Earth System Sciences. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-13865-7_4

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation